2006 AFC East Football Preview
(2005 Regular Season Records in Parentheses)
New England Patriots (11-5)
The NFL’s best franchise over the past five years looks for its fourth Super Bowl title this decade. With Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, and Bill Belichick leading the charge, the Patriots should continue to contend this season. The addition of first-round draft pick Laurence Maroney will take pressure off running back Corey Dillon, and if the defense can stay healthy, they should improve. The Pats’ traditionally stalwart defense struggled last season, ranking an astounding 26th in total defense, and letting the Patriots down in their playoff loss at Denver. The loss of Willie McGinest should be of minor concern to a deep, veteran linebacking corps, while Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren are an imposing defensive line. The secondary remains a question mark; loaded with veterans, but not impact players, the Patriots may struggle against the pass once again.
On offense, the Patriots still have Tom Brady, arguably the league’s best quarterback. Brady led the league in passing yards a year ago, though the addition of Maroney may mean he won’t have to put up similar numbers this season. There are concerns offensively; for starters, the receiving corps is thin. Number one wideout Deion Branch is still holding out, backed up by 35-year-old Troy Brown, rookie Chad Jackson, and former Charger Reche Caldwell, who has never caught more than 28 passes in his four NFL seasons. Despite the Patriots’ success at plugging in journeyman offensive linemen through the years, only one projected offensive line starter – right guard Stephen Neal – has ever started a full NFL season.
As in 2005, the Patriots face a tough schedule, including home games against Cincinnati and Indianpolis, and trips to Denver and Jacksonville. The difficulty of their schedule means New England should be looking at another ten-win season, but will struggle to compete for a top seed or even a first-round bye.
The biggest question for the Patriots is whether they can hold off the Dolphins to win the AFC East. With the Jets rebuilding and the Bills dogged by questions, it looks to be a two-team race. New England should be able to hold off Miami, but it may not be easy. And, with Indianapolis still strong, and Denver, Kansas City, and San Diego all challenging out West, another Super Bowl appearance seems a bit out of reach for New England this season.
2006 Prediction: 10-6, AFC East Champions, first-round playoff loss
Miami Dolphins (9-7)
The Miami Dolphins’ bandwagon is full after a six-game winning streak to close out 2005 and the addition of former Pro Bowler Daunte Culpepper at quarterback. Many prognosticators believe that the Dolphins can end the Patriots’ three-year reign atop the AFC East.
Not so fast. As remarkable as any six-game winning streak in the modern NFL is, the Dolphins’ run featured only one impressive win: a victory at San Diego that crippled the Chargers’ playoff chances. (Miami also defeated the Patriots in a Week 17 game where New England rested a number of their starters.) The Dolphins’ defense, their strength for a decade, is full of question marks. Can first-round pick Jason Allen be a solid corner in his rookie season? If not, who among a group of journeyman reserves will step up? Can a front four whose average age is over 33 sustain a pass rush all season?
On the offensive side, the most important question is whether Daunte Culpepper is healthy. If he is, he can make a big difference, provided second-year back Ronnie Brown avoids the sophomore jinx and proves he can handle the running game without the help of Ricky Williams.
The Dolphins will benefit from an easy opening schedule. Aside from trips to Pittsburgh and New England, Miami plays five games – three at home – against 2005 also-rans. Coming off their Week 8 bye, the Dolphins should be 5-2, or at least 4-3, heading into a season-defining stretch at Chicago, home for Kansas City and Minnesota, at Detroit, and home for Jacksonville and New England again. The Dolphins could easily go 11-5 this season, and just as easily go 5-11; the smart money says they’re still one year away, and splits the difference.
2006 Prediction: 8-8
New York Jets (4-12)
It was an ugly season for the New York Jets in 2005; injuries at quarterback forced them to pull Vinny Testaverde out of retirement before finally relying on fourth-stringer Brooks Bollinger for the balance of the season. The offensive line struggled; the defense finished 23rd in points allowed; and their head coach bolted for greener pastures in Kansas City as soon as the season ended.
But the Jets may be better than expected in 2006; like the Dolphins a year ago, rumors of their long-term demise may be premature. Chad Pennington has performed better than expected in training camp, and remains a top NFL quarterback when healthy. (Pennington led the NFL in passer rating in 2002.) Laveraneus Coles and Justin McCareins provide solid receiving options. The offensive line will be young but talented, with two 2006 first-round draft picks combining with veterans Brandon Moore, Pete Kendall, and Anthony Clement. Defensively, the linebacking trio of Victor Hobson, Eric Barton, and Jonathan Vilma – 2005’s leading tackler – is one of the league’s top units, backing a defensive line featuring three first-round draft picks.
Like last year, the secondary and running game remain major holes for the Jets; that, and a tough opening schedule, likely will preclude any sort of contention for the AFC East division title this year. But the Jets may pull off some quality wins this year, and will be a dangerous team from week to week. The pieces are in place for first-year head coach Eric Mangini, and the J-E-T-S may be flying sooner than expected.
2006 Prediction: 7-9
Buffalo Bills (5-11)
It’s been six straight seasons without a playoff appearance for the Bills, and it doesn’t appear to be much better for Buffalo in 2006. The Bills were 28th in total offense and 29th in total defense a year ago; the additions of WR Peerless Price (free agency) and first-round draft picks Donte Whitner and John McCargo are not the answer. The defense is still too old and too slow; the offensive line has serious question marks; and the quarterback battle between J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb is not reminding Bills fans of the Jim Kelly/Frank Reich era. It’s going to be a long, hard climb for the Buffalo Bills; they may take a few steps in 2006, but this is not a team built to compete for the AFC East this season.
2006 Prediction: 3-13
