2006 AFC North Football Preview

The AFC North featured an entertaining two-team horse race in 2005, as Cincinnati edged out Pittsburgh for the AFC North crown. Pittsburgh got its revenge, however, by beating Cincinnati in the playoffs en route to their fifth Super Bowl victory. In 2006, both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati look to return to the playoffs, while Baltimore adds veteran QB Steve McNair to its perennially stout defense. Many experts expect the AFC North to be the league’s most balanced, and three of its teams are considered Super Bowl contenders. But a difficult schedule for all four teams means that the AFC North will likely only produce one playoff team this season.

(2005 Regular Season Records in Parentheses)

Baltimore Ravens (6-10)

The expectations are high for the Ravens, who in Steve McNair have a franchise quarterback for the first time since moving to Baltimore. McNair joins former Titans teammate Derrick Mason and running back Jamal Lewis to form the most potent Ravens offense in recent memory. If Lewis can regain his 2004 form, let alone the abilities that led to a 2,000-yard season in 2003, the Ravens will be a dangerous team offensively.

Even a slight improvement from last year’s 24th ranked performance could be enough for Baltimore. Last year’s fifth-ranked defense should be bolstered by the return of Ray Lewis, who missed ten games a year ago, and the addition of first-round pick Haloti Ngata to the defensive line. The Ravens don’t need to score points in bunches, just enough to support an outstanding defense. With McNair, Mason, and Lewis, the offense should do enough to get it done for the Ravens in 2006.

2006 Prediction: 10-6, AFC North Champions, loss in Divisional Playoffs

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Check out this opening schedule: Miami, at Jacksonville, Cincinnati, bye, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Atlanta. Six opening games against 2006 playoff contenders right off the bat for the defending Super Bowl champions. Defending a Super Bowl has been brutal for teams not from Massachusetts, and that form may hold for the Steelers.

The conventional wisdom is that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s off-season motorcycle accident may somehow help his maturity; it says here those predictions are wildly optimistic. At a position where confidence and even recklessness are essential, the accident may take more than a few weeks of training camp for Roethlisberger to get over.

In the meantime, the Steelers have retained most of their talent from a year ago, with the only major losses safety Chris Hope and wide receiver Antwaan Randle-El. Then again, last year’s team barely squeaked into the playoffs as a sixth seed before a magnificent playoff run. This year, a combination of depth issues at wide receiver, running back, and in the secondary should combine with standard post-Super Bowl bad luck to end the Steelers’ chance to repeat before the playoffs even begin.

2006 Prediction: 7-9

Cleveland Browns (6-10)

The second incarnation of the Browns franchise is 36-77 in seven NFL seasons; 2006 may be an improvement, but not by much. No team in the league scored fewer points a year ago; Charlie Frye showed flashes of brilliance late in 2005, but cannot be expected to star in 2006. Frye is talented, but lacks weapons. His starting wide receivers are currently Dennis Northcutt and Joe Jurevicius, neither of whom has proven to be a consistent number one receiver in the NFL. The return of Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards from injury will help, but neither can be counted on until proven healthy. A rebuilt offensive line faces a huge hole in the middle, with the loss of centers LeCharles Bentley to injury, and Bob Hallen to retirement. Reuben Droughns has been a solid NFL running back, but the Browns’ offense should still rank in the bottom third of the NFL this season.

There are some bright spots for the Browns, particularly on defense. One of the league’s most underrated defenses adds veterans Willie McGinest and Ted Washington to a fast, deep unit. With youth on offense, and talent on defense, the Browns will be dangerous, and should pull off an upset or two. But a deep division, and a tough schedule, means the Browns are still at least a year away.

2006 Prediction: 7-9

Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

It’s been a tumultuous off-season for the Bengals, between arrests, drug suspensions, and the drama surrounding Carson Palmer’s surgically reconstructed right knee. The talent is still there, but how much of a toll will the off-season troubles take?

On offense, all eleven starters return to a unit that ranked 6th in the NFL a year ago. Palmer’s health is the big question mark, as his backup is mediocre former Raven Anthony Wright. The offense should continue to produce, if Palmer can stay healthy.

On defense, the Bengals added veterans DT Sam Adams and FS Dexter Jackson to a unit that led the NFL with 31 interceptions and 46 total turnovers a year ago. The big question is whether the Bengals can come close to repeating that performance; turnovers depend partly on luck, and it’s doubtful they can match those numbers again.

Most troubling for Bengals fans, Cincinnati will face one of the league’s toughest schedules; with six games in the solid AFC North, plus four against the deep AFC West and four more against the solid NFC South. Tack on a home game against New England and a trip to Indianapolis, and the Bengals will play just a handful of easy games this season. Opening at Kansas City, against Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, and home versus New England, a slow start may hurt a team already distracted by off-field issues. Look for the Bengals to be one of the league’s disappointments in 2006.

2006 Prediction: 6-10