2006 AFC South Football Preview
(2005 Regular Season Records in Parentheses)
Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
The Colts won their third straight AFC South title in 2005, and with a 13-0 start sparked talk of an undefeated season before stumbling against the Steelers in the divisional playoffs. The Colts will contend for the AFC Championship again in 2006. True, the loss of Edgerrin James will hurt; but a team that won thirteen consecutive games by a minimum of a touchdown last season has room for error. Running backs have proven to be replaceable in the NFL, and holdovers Dominic Rhodes and James Mungro will team with first-round pick Joseph Addai to give Indianapolis a serviceable running game.
In the meantime, the Colts still have Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and a host of weapons on offense. The Colts defense surprised observers by finishing second in the NFL in points allowed a year ago; young, fast, and deep, they should thrive again this season.
A tougher schedule means the Colts will likely not reach 13-0 in 2006; road games against the Giants, Broncos, Patriots, Cowboys and division rival Jaguars ensure that last year’s complaints of a soft Colts schedule will not be duplicated. With or without Edgerrin James, the Colts will remain one of the league’s best teams, and should earn a first-round bye. With Adam Vinatieri upgrading the special teams, and a bit of last year’s pressure eased, it says here the Colts finally – finally – find a way to make it to the Super Bowl, where Peyton Manning finds redemption.
2006 Prediction: 11-5, AFC South Champions, Super Bowl Champions
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
Last year’s sixth-ranked defense returns eight starters from a year ago, along with the return of safety Donovan Darius from a major knee injury. Byron Leftwich has developed into a solid NFL quarterback, and the backfield of Fred Taylor and Greg Jones provides a consistent running attack. While lacking any major stars, the Jaguars have one of the best all-around rosters in the league.
There are concerns for the Jaguars in 2006, following last year’s wild card appearance. Injuries have slowed both Leftwich and Taylor (although Taylor’s injury rap is a bit unfair; he’s only missed seven games in the past four seasons) and Taylor hit 30 this year, a dangerous number for a running back in his ninth season. The Jags’ biggest concern is at wide receiver, where the retirement of Jimmy Smith leaves only a corps of young, unproven players, led by last year’s first-round pick Matt Jones – a converted college quarterback – and third-year man Ernest Wilford.
Jacksonville’s biggest concern as they try to wrest the AFC South crown is their schedule; it features four games against the NFC East, along with home games against Pittsburgh and New England, and trips to Miami and Kansas City, not to mention two dates with the Colts. In a conference where six losses may be too many come playoff time, the Jaguars will be a tough team, but will not only lose the AFC South, but miss the playoffs altogether.
2006 Prediction: 8-8
Tennessee Titans (4-12)
Quite simply, Tennessee was a bad team a year ago; their only four wins came against Baltimore, San Francisco, and Houston (twice). 2006 will be a rebuilding year, but coming off an excellent draft, the Titans should give their fans reason for optimism.
The pre-season hype is about rookie Vince Young, but the starter will be Billy Volek, and he should at least entertain Titans fans until Young is ready for the starting job. Volek already has two 400-yard games in his career, and has shown the ability to be a legitimate NFL quarterback in relief stints of former Titan Steve McNair. The Titans have an embarrassment of riches at running back, with Travis Henry, Chris Brown, and second-round pick LenDale White. Former Jet Kevin Mawae, signed as a free agent at center, adds talent and stability to a veteran offensive line, and Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe are one of the best tight end tandems in the NFL. There are depth issues at wide receiver, behind Drew Bennett and ex-Patriot David Givens, but the Titans offense should improve, despite the trade of McNair to Baltimore.
The Titans’ defense remains their biggest question mark. 29th in the league a year ago in points allowed, the Titans added middle linebacker David Thornton and safety Chris Hope, but little else in terms of upgrades. Corner Adam “Pac Man” Jones should continue to develop, and there is some talent in the Tennessee front seven, but so far the results haven’t been there. There’s little evidence to suggest that 2006 will be substantially different.
Like their AFC South counterparts, the Titans must play the AFC and NFC East divisions in 2006; their first six games feature trips to San Diego, Miami, Indianapolis, and Washington, while their last six games include home dates against the Giants, Colts, Jaguars, and Patriots. Tennessee should put up – and give up – quite a few points in 2006, win a few, and lose a few, and give hope to their fans for 2007.
2006 Prediction: 6-10
Houston Texans (2-14)
The Texans look to be one of the league’s most scrutinized teams in 2006, thanks to their decision to pass on Reggie Bush in favor of defensive end Mario Williams. The Texans don’t look terrible on paper, although the same was true during their 2-14 season a year ago. The offense has weapons, with Domanick Davis at running back and Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson at wide receiver. The offensive line returns four starters, along with 2004 starter Seth Wand at tackle.
Of course, that may be the problem; Carr was sacked 68 times last year, an NFL high. All told, Houston’s offense tied for 26th in the NFL in points scored last season. While the addition of Moulds will help, he’ll make little difference if Carr doesn’t have time to get him the ball.
The Texans’ defense was the worst in football in 2005, dead last in points allowed and next to last in yards allowed. DT Anthony Weaver (signed as a free agent from the Ravens) and rookies Williams and LB DeMeco Ryans are building blocks, but can’t be expected to be impact players.
Houston does open with four of its first six games at home; unfortunately, they are against Philadelphia, Washington, Miami, and Jacksonville. Add in trips to Indianapolis and Dallas, and the Texans could be looking at another 0-6 start. By that point, their fans may start tuning into Saints games, just to see what might have been. The second half schedule is easier, but by that point it’s unlikely the Texans will be hanging around the playoff race.
2006 Prediction: 3-13
