2006 NCAA Football Preview
Eastern Division
1. Southern Mississippi- The Golden Eagles have a solid, but not prolific, quarterback in Jeremy Young, whose speed will allow Southern Miss to move the pocket left and right. Unlike the pass heavy approach of 2005, Southern Mississippi’s offensive staff will focus on a double-barreled running threat with Larry Thomas and Cody Hull easing the pressure off of Young. The defense is more experienced and after a surprising performance in 2005 will start to make more big plays in big games.
2. UCF- The Golden Knights will focus on the run game, with all five starters returning to the offensive line and versatile back Kevin Smith joining the team. The defense is young but experienced with a solid secondary including corner back Joe Burnett and safety Jason Venson. Look for UCF to push Southern Mississippi until the end of the season for the lead in the Eastern Division and in 2007 to push even harder, making Conference USA much more competitive overall.
3. Marshall- Running back Ahmad Bradshaw is making over Marshall University from a prolific passing school to a more balanced program. Coach Mark Snyder has a good defensive scheme, solid talent on both sides of the ball, and a tough learning experience in 2005 that will allow them to make it to third place in the division and a solid chance at a bowl game.
4. East Carolina- The Pirates improve on offense, with another year of the Skip Holtz offense under their belt and quarterback James Pinkney read to make more plays for East Carolina. However, the slight defensive improvement of 2005 will be followed by a poor performance in 2006, on the heels of a 64-61 loss to Marshall in the GMAC Bowl. Defense is often about confidence and if they can’t get off to a good start, Pinkney and Company will have a lot of work to do to keep East Carolina in games.
5. Memphis- The loss of star running back DeAngelo Williams will be the story of the Tigers’ season, despite Memphis’ confidence in running Joseph Doss. As well, the return of injured quarterbacks Patrick Byrne and Will Hudgens, along with the performance of Martin Hankins and Maurice Avery at the position, means Memphis has a lot to figure out on offense. With tough competition at the top of the Eastern division, Memphis won’t be in a position to win conference games until the end of the season which will be too late to make a difference.
6. UAB- The Blazers are lacking a high profile quarterback after the loss of Darrell Hackney and lack major targets without Reggie Lindsey and Jhun Cook. As well, the defense has too many questions and open competitions to make it ready to win games early in the season, when they will need to put up some numbers and stay in the bowl chase. Look for UAB to be better in 2007 but 2006 is a major rebuilding year for the Blazers.
Western Division
1. Houston- The Cougars have an outstanding quarterback in Kevin Kolb and ten starters returning on defense. The Western Division is going to be a tough one to win for Houston, but they have the most prolific offense in Conference USA and their defense is good enough to keep them in every game in 2006.
2. Tulsa- Tulsa’s defensive effort, led by solid NFL prospect linebacker Nick Bunting, was good in 2005 and should be great in 2006. The problem seems to be that unlike Houston and UTEP, Tulsa doesn’t have the same offensive weapons to win the Western Division or Conference USA. Quarterback Paul Smith is solid but he lost tight end Garrett Mills and wide receiver Ashlan Davis to the NFL Draft in 2006. Tulsa will need to find some offensive stars and make some turnovers in order to compete with Houston and UTEP in Conference USA.
3. UTEP- Quarterback Jordan Palmer is nearly as good as Kevin Kolb of Houston but his turnovers in 2005 were his undoing. The Miners need Palmer to be more efficient if UTEP has a shot at the division title and a conference title and the senior Palmer only has one more season to improve his pro prospects. The defense was not good down the stretch in 2005 and fans shouldn’t look for any drastic improvement in 2006.
4. Tulane- Tulane University went through a lot in 2005 with the Hurricane Katrina aftermath and a difficult transition for New Orleans. The defensive front seven should be good enough to stuff the run against most Conference USA teams and the occasional big play from the secondary will give Tulane a chance in most games. However, there are too many questions about the Tulane offense and not enough of a running game for Tulane to be a factor in Conference USA in 2006.
5. SMU- The Mustangs will have a great defense in 2006, which is rare in Conference USA. Unfortunately for coach Phil Bennett, the offense is too young and inexperienced to get the ball moving down field and make the defensive effort worthwhile. If quarterback Justin Willis can make strides in 2006, watch out for the Mustangs in 2007 and beyond.
6. Rice- Dead last in offense and 115th in pass efficiency means that new offensive coordinator Major Applewhite has a major task ahead of him. Without much talent on offense, with the exception of running back Quinton Smith, Applewhite will be a great coach if he can turn this team around after a dismal 2005 season. As well, the defense was dead last or near the bottom of most major defensive categories and having experience after such a poor season does not necessarily bode well for the Owls.
Conference USA Championship Game- Southern Mississippi versus Houston- Southern Mississippi and Houston are mirror images of one another, with great passing games and improving defenses putting them at the top of their respective divisions. However, Houston’s Kevin Kolb is extremely talented, has the receiving weapons to throw it all over the field, and the Cougars have a defense that is good enough to shut down any Conference USA opponent. Southern Mississippi will be in better shape in 2007 with a more veteran squad.
2006 Conference USA championship projection: Houston defeats Southern Mississippi, 41-24.
Best NFL Prospect: Quarterback Kevin Kolb, Houston- Kolb is a four year starter, has a great receiving corps, and is unlike former Cougars Andre Ware and David Klingler in that he has the head for the NFL game. Kolb’s experience and big arm should make him a first day pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.
Most Improved Team: Marshall- Marshall had an abysmal offensive showing last season, which is surprising for a school that has brought players like Byron Leftwich and Randy Moss into the NFL. Mark Snyder is retooling the team to focus more on the running game, with talented back Ahmad Bradshaw and defensive lineman Juan Underwood leading the way for the Thundering Herd.
