2006 NFL Preview: AFC East
Buffalo Bills
2005 Record: 5-11
Head Coach: Dick Jauron
Key Additions: WR Peerless Price, DT Larry Tripplett
Key Subtractions: DB Lawyer Milloy, WR Eric Moulds, DT Sam Adams
Offense: A dismal 5-11 season in Buffalo brought a massive upheaval in the front office. Legendary Bills head coach Marv Levy, age 80, came out of retirement to run the franchise as general manager. His selection as new head coach was ex-Bears leader Dick Jauron. While the coaching needed change, the biggest problems in 2005 were under center. Former No. 1 pick J.P. Losman failed to live up to expectations as starter. Kelly Holcomb got opportunities, but couldn’t spark the offense. Losman and Holcomb will battle it out in training camp for the starting job, likely to go to the youthful Losman in a final chance for him to show his potential as quarterback for the future in Buffalo. The shaky QB situation will likely impact the rest of the offense, namely stud running back Willis McGahee. Still with a shaky offensive line, McGahee will need help from the passing attack to exceed last year’s 1247 yards and 5 touchdowns. Wide receiver Peerless Price returns to Buffalo to join starters Lee Evans and Josh Reed.
Defense: Dick Jauron’s defense first mentality will help a unit that lost beefy defensive tackle Sam Adams and cornerback Lawyer Milloy. Middle linebacker London Fletcher anchors the defense and will be counted on to continue his strong play from 2005 where he notched 158 tackles, third best in the league. Aaron Schobel’s 12 sacks return at defensive end with Larry Tripplett signing on as a starting defensive tackle. In the secondary, team leaders in interceptions, Terrence McGhee and Troy Vincent, return as starting cornerback and free safety, respectively. First round pick and 8th overall selection Donte Whitner of Ohio State should see some time at strong safety.
Projection: Barring a miraculous improvement by J.P Losman, 8-8 would come off like a solid season for the Bills. 6-10 seems more likely, with a third place finish and another top ten pick in next year’s draft.
Miami Dolphins
2005 Record: 9-7
Head Coach: Nick Saban
Key Additions: QB Daunte Culpepper, QB Joey Harrington, DT Dan Wilkinson
Key Subtractions: RB Ricky Williams, DB Sam Madison
Offense: Coming off an NBA Championship by Shaquille O’Neal and the Heat, the focus in South Florida has shifted to the Dolphins, with expectations high after a strong finish to the ’05 campaign. Miami lost seven of its first ten games of the Nick Saban era before finishing with six consecutive victories for a surprising 9-7 winning record. With a legitimate superstar quarterback under center for the first time since Dan Marino, the Dolphins are poised to top that mark in 2006. Daunte Culpepper, off a severe knee injury, joins the cast in Miami under new offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. If healthy, and the team traded for former Lions starter Joey Harrington as an insurance policy, Culpepper should return to his Pro Bowl numbers. Now in his second year, Ronnie Brown has shown glimpses of being a quality NFL running back. The loss of Ricky Williams to a one-year drug suspension could hurt Brown’s durability over 16 games, but the passing attack should lighten his load. Chris Chambers, who caught 11 TD’s in 2005, remains a stud No. 1 receiver with Marty Booker lining up on the other side of the formation. Tight end Randy McMichael continues to produce and should be a major red zone weapon for Culpepper.
Defense: The defense was Miami’s calling card in 2005 and expect more of the same under Saban and new defensive coordinator Dom Capers. All-Pro defensive force Jason Taylor will be back at his end position trying to top his 12 sacks of a year ago. Joining him on the defensive line will be Keith Traylor, Vonnie Holliday, and recent signing Dan “Big Daddy” Wilkinson. Zach Thomas, who finished second in the league with 162 tackles, will patrol the middle of the field at linebacker. The secondary could be an issue with the loss of Sam Madison, but the team signed ex-New York Giant Will Allen to start at cornerback and drafted safety Jason Allen of Tennessee with its first round selection.
Projection: If Culpepper can stay healthy and regain his form from his Pro Bowl days in Minnesota and the secondary doesn’t spring too many leaks, the Dolphins could win 11 or 12 games and supplant New England as the cream of the AFC East crop.
New England Patriots
2005 Record: 10-6
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Key Additions: K Martin Gramatica, WR Reche Caldwell
Key Losses: K Adam Vinatieri, LB Willie McGinest, WR David Givens
Offense: If any team knows how to deal with adversity, it’s the New England Patriots. But the offseason saw many personnel changes and the departure of several of the key players that helped bring three Super Bowls to New England in four seasons. Perhaps the biggest change came in the special teams where Hall of Fame kicker and multiple-time Super Bowl hero Adam Vinatieri bolted for rival Indianapolis. Rarely does the loss of a kicker severely impact an NFL team, but the sure-footed Vinatieri provided a comfort level in key situations that will be missing with replacement Martin Gramatica. On offense, the wide receiving corps will look very different in 2006 with David Givens in Tennessee and Deion Branch holding out from the team due a contract dispute. Barring a resolution before training camp ends, the Pats could line up with Reche Caldwell, formerly of the Chargers, and aging veteran Troy Brown as its top two receivers. Of course, the Patriots still remain dangerous with Tom Brady under center. He’s adapted to personnel changes before and should be able to do it again. Corey Dillon is back at running back and, if he can still healthy, should post strong numbers. First round pick Laurence Maroney of Minnesota will share some of the carries.
Defense: As the offensive and special teams took offseason hits, so too did the defense. Star linebacker Willie McGinnest left town to rejoin former Pats defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel in Cleveland, where he will anchor an average Browns defensive unit. Thankfully for Patriots fans, Richard Seymour will be hunting down quarterbacks again at his defensive end position. Vince Wilfork and the sometimes questionable Jonathan Sullivan should anchor the middle of the D-line. The linebacking corps looks solid with the heart and soul of the Pats, Tedy Bruschi, returning at middle linebacker and Rosevelt Colvin and Mike Vrabel flanking him on outside. The secondary will likely again be a headache with only Rodney Harrison a given at strong safety. The Pats are hoping to find a couple of quality corners from a group of Asante Samuel, Eugene Wilson, Ellis Hobbs, and Randall Gay, but none have emerged yet as starting quality CB’s.
Projection: With Brady, Bruschi, Seymour, and, particularly, Belichick, it’s tough to pick against the Patriots. But the key losses across the board, paired with the trouble in the secondary and the aging Corey Dillon at running back, should prevent the Pats from winning the division. 9 or 10 wins is very possible and a Wild Card berth should be in New England’s future.
New York Jets
2005 Record: 4-12
Head Coach: Eric Mangini
Key Additions: QB Patrick Ramsey, CB Andre Dyson, DT Kimo von Oelhoffen
Key Losses: DE John Abraham, C Kevin Mawae, CB Ty Law
Offense: 2005 proved be a lost season in the Big Apple and, as a result, a turning of the page came for the Jets in the offseason. New general manager Mike Tannenbaum hired Bill Belichick disciple Eric Mangini to try to bring some of the New England magic to the Meadowlands. But tons of question marks face Mangini in his first season as a NFL head coach. Of those question marks, none is bigger than the quarterback position where incumbent Chad Pennington is returning from shoulder surgery to battle with ex-Redskin Patrick Ramsey and second round draft pick Kellen Clemens. As of mid training camp, Pennington appears to be the leader in the clubhouse for the opening day start, but no one should be surprised if Clemens starts some games by the end of the season. Running back is a mess as Curtis Martin’s career hangs in the balance. With Derrick Blaylock and Cedric Houston as the top options, the Jets attempted to trade for Browns RB Lee Suggs, but voided the deal when Suggs failed his physical. The wide receiver position has yet to be solidified behind No.1 receiver Laveranues Coles. Justin McCareins appears to be in the doghouse and, at best, could be the No. 3 wideout, leaving Jericho Cotchery or Tim Dwight as potential starters. Regardless of who is under center and who is trying to rush the football for New York, it will be up to a revamped offensive line to lead the way. Perennial Pro Bowl Kevin Mawae bit the dust as a salary cap casualty. Mainstay tackle Jason Fabini also parted ways with the Jets. The team used their two first round pick on potential long-term O-line solutions, tackle D’Brickashaw Fergueson of Virginia and center Nick Mangold of Ohio State. Both will need to quickly make the transition to the pros for the Jets to have any offensive success in ’06.
Defense: The Jets defensive front seven was the team’s signature, but the trade of oft-injured defensive end John Abraham to Atlanta has changed the dynamics. Mangini is hoping to copy the Patriots formula of switching between 3-4 and 4-3 looks to confuse opposing teams. To be successful, the team will need big seasons out of two former first round picks, defensive lineman Shaun Ellis and nose tackle Dewayne Robertson. Stud linebacker Jonathan Vilma will anchor the middle of the field and could be poised for a breakout season. The secondary took a hit as the team could not financially afford a second season with Ty Law, despite his 10 interceptions. Cornerback Andre Dyson was signed to replace him and join safeties Erik Coleman and Kerry Rhodes as well as second-year cornerback Justin Miller of Clemson.
Projection: The future may be bright with Mangini at the helm and Kellen Clemens showing early on that he could be the Jets’ quarterback of the future. The defense still has playmakers, but the gaping holes in the offense will make life difficult for Jets fans. Any improvement on last year’s 4-12 should be considered a successful season. More likely, another 4-12 season and last place finish is expected, but hopefully the team can find some solutions for the future during the 2006 season.
Projected 2006 AFC East Standing
Miami Dolphins: 12-4
New England Patriot: 10-6 (wild card berth)
Buffalo Bills: 6-10
New York Jets: 4-12
