2006 NFL Preview: AFC South
Houston Texas
2005 Record: 2-12
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak
Key Additions: DE Mario Williams, DT Anthony Weaver, LB Sam Cowart, WR Eric Moulds
Key Subtractions: WR Corey Bradford, WR Jabar Gaffney, S Marcus Coleman
Offense: At the end of the 2005 season, when the Houston Texans earned the rights to the first pick in the 2006 draft by virtue of a 2-14 campaign, hardly anyone could imagine the team passing on USC running back sensation Reggie Bush. Alas, the night before the draft, the team struck a deal with North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams. Did new head coach Gary Kubiak and his staff pass up the next Gale Sayers? If so, he needs to hope he drafted the next Reggie White. Offensively, the Texans have some talent at the skill positions. Quarterback David Carr’s biggest weakness has been his protection. Without any major offensive line acquisitions, Kubiak, an offensive guru, will need to strategize schemes to keep Carr on his feet. If Carr can buy time, he does have weapons on the outside. Andre Johnson can avoid some double teams this season thanks to the trade for Eric Moulds from Buffalo. Tight end Jeb Putzier joins the offense after a solid season in Denver. With Bush not in the picture, Dominick Davis, with a new contract extension in hand, remains the starter. Davis rushed for nearly 1,000 yards in only 11 starts and will need to stay healthy for the Texans to be mildly competitive.
Defense: Houston’s defense was as bad as its offense in 2005 and the porous play likely spurred the front office’s decision to select Williams over Bush. The pressure will be on the NC State product as he will have to justify his worthiness to the Houston faithful. Jason Babin is expected to start at the other defensive end position while Robaire Smith and Anthony Weaver clog the middle of the line. The team attempted to sure up its linebacking unit by signing veteran Sam Cowart and drafting DeMeco Ryans of Alabama in the second round. Morlon Greenwood will likely start at weakside linebacker while 2005 team sacks leader, Shantee Orr, holds down the strong side. The secondary could be a huge question mark. Dunta Robinson will start at one corner and C.C. Brown will play free safety with others, including Phillip Buchanon, battling for the remaining spots.
Projection: Another dismal year for the Texans and weekly pondering by fans and the media as to why they passed on Reggie Bush. The team could win a couple of more games than in 2005, but barring huge improvements on the defensive side of the ball and on the offensive line, the Texans could be in the hunt for the No. 1 pick next April and David Carr could be looking for a new home.
Indianapolis Colts
2005 Record: 14-2
Head Coach: Tony Dungy
Key Additions: K Adam Vinatieri
Key Subtractions: RB Edgerrin James, K Mike Vanderjagt, LB David Thornton
Offense: Despite 14-2 regular season, 2005 was a major disappointment after the Colts failed to make the AFC Championship game following a bitter loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in the second round. As a result, some changes were made, some by choice and some out of necessity. The team opted to part ways with All-Pro running back Edgerrin James for financial reasons. Long-time back up Dominic Rhodes and rookie first round pick Joseph Addai from LSU will attempt to fill James’ void. Without a stud running back, the offense should still post prodigious numbers thanks to world class quarterback Peyton Manning and his trio of superstar receivers – Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley. In special teams, the team dumped long-time kicker Mike Vanderjagt, whose inconsistency in big spots cost the team many big games, including last January against the Steelers. In possibly the best personnel move in the league this offseason, the team replaced Vanderjagt with arguably the most clutch kicker in NFL history, Adam Vinatieri. The security of having Vinatieri on the field in a pressure spot should ease concerns for the team and its fans.
Defense: The defensive unit from 2005 returns mostly intact for the Colts. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who combined for 21.5 sacks last season, will put pressure on quarterbacks all season from the defensive end position. Montae Reagor and Raheem Brock will attempt to stuff the run at defensive tackle. The team did lose David Thornton at linebacker, but Gary Brackett and Cato June, the team leaders in tackles, return. Nick Harper, Jason David, and Marlin Jackson are back at cornerback with Bob Sanders and Mike Doss patrolling as safeties.
Projection: Despite the loss of “Edge,” the Colts should have little trouble winning the AFC South once again and going deep into the playoffs. After last year’s disastrous finish to the season, the team could consider altering its plans once it clinches a playoff berth and potentially home field. 13 or 14 wins should be the marking point for the Colts and the pressure will again be on the shoulders of Peyton Manning to win some big names in January.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2005 Record: 12-4
Head Coach: Jack Del Rio
Key Additions: CB Brian Williams, OT Mike Williams, LB Nick Greisen
Key Subtractions: WR Jimmy Smith, LB Akin Ayodele, S Deke Cooper
Offense: With a strong 12-4 record, the Jacksonville Jaguars still finished two games behind in their division. The team also managed the impressive record amidst several key injuries, including quarterback Byron Leftwich, running back Fred Taylor, and several defensive starters. Leftwich, hopefully healthy, will be back under center in 2006, but will be without his favorite target, wide receiver Jimmy Smith, who abruptly retired in the offseason. Matt Jones and Ernest Wilfork will assume the starting wide receiver jobs, but neither has anywhere near the track record of the former Pro Bowler Smith. Fred Taylor will start at running back, but age and chronic injuries make it a long shot that he’ll survive a 16-game schedule. Greg Jones will likely get the bulk of the carries when Taylor is sidelined.
Defense: The Jaguars boasted one of the premiere defensive units in 2005, allowing less than 17 points per games, and should again be at the head of class in 2006. The defensive line is the flagship, with Reggie Hayward and Paul Spicer on the ends and Marcus Stroud and John Henderson clogging the middle. The team added Nick Greisen at linebacker to join star middle linebacker Mike Peterson, who boasted 132 tackles and 6 sacks last season, and outside linebacker Darryl Smith. The team bolstered its secondary with the addition of cornerback Brian Williams to join Rashean Mathis, who picked off 5 passes in last season. Deon Grant and Donovin Darius will likely start at the safety spots.
Projection: Health will be the key for the Jaguars in 2006, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. If the team can manage a full 16 starts from Leftwich and Taylor, they should score enough points to win many football games. But losing No. 1 receiver Jimmy Smith will hurt. The defense should dominate once again and give the Jaguars a chance to win every week. Another 12-win season may be a stretch, especially with a tough early schedule, but 10 or 11 wins and another trip to the playoffs is possible, of course, barring injuries.
Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher
2005 Record: 4-12
Key Additions: QB Vince Young, C Kevin Mawae, WR David Givens, S Chris Hope, LB David Thornton
Key Subtractions: QB Steve McNair, S Tank Williams, OL Justin Hartwig
Offense: The Steve McNair era ended in Tennessee, amidst a lot of bad feelings on both sides. With McNair traded to Baltimore, the starting quarterback job falls to Billy Volek, but third overall pick and Rose Bowl hero Vince Young of the University of Texas waits in the wings as the team’s future leader. The backfield will be crowded with Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and rookie LenDale White of USC rotating in and out of the lineup. The team inked wide receiver David Givens from New England to pair with Drew Bennett as targets for Volek. Perhaps the bets offensive signing came on the line with All-Pro center Kevin Mawae signing with the Titans after being a salary cap casualty of the Jets. Volek has show glimpses of strong play in the past and will need to play well early to avoid losing his job to the highlight-reel rookie.
Defense: The Titans attempted to upgrade the defense in the offseason and made some solid signings. Linebacker David Thornton left the Colts to join Tennessee. He’ll play on the strong side next to middle linebacker Keith Bullock, who notched 138 tackles and 5 sacks last season, and weakside linebacker Peter Sirmon. The team signed strong safety Chris Hope from the Steelers, who should help a great deal in the secondary as a replacement for the departed Tank Williams. Second year player Adam “Pacman” Jones and Reynaldo Hill will start at cornerback. Jones could eventually develop into one of top cover corners in the league. The front four has Kyle Vander Bosch and his 12.5 sacks at one end with Travis LaBoy on the other. Albert Haynesworth and Randy Starks will start up the middle.
Projection: If all goes well, Tennessee could be developing a solid young nucleus led by Vince Young and LenDale White on offense and Pacman Jones on defense. But the victories will be few and far between in 2006. The team should eek past Houston for third place, but both teams will be a far distance from the Colts and Jaguars in the standings.
Projected 2006 AFC South Standings:
Indianapolis Colts: 13-3
Jacksonville Jaguars: 11-5
Tennessee Titans: 5-11
Houston Texas: 4-12
