Who Will Be Nominated for the Oscars?

THE OSCAR RACE BEGINS

Early in the morning of January 31st, Hollywood will be awaken just before dawn for this year’s unveiling of the nominees for the 78th Annual Academy Awards. Yes, it’s that time of year once again, when the studios pull out all its stops to get their stars and their talents the most coveted, most sought after award in the entertainment business: The Oscar, an 8.5 inch gold-plated statuette that’s been an indelible part of pop culture since the late 1920’s. Both adored and reviled by film enthusiasts, it is nonetheless fascinating and exciting every year. This year, it’s no different.

2005 is shaping to be one of the most controversial, most talked about Oscar races yet with apparent front-runners being a gay Western (Brokeback Mountain), a searing look into the infamous McCarthy Communist witch hunts (Good Night and Good Luck), a Spielberg film dealing with the 1972 Munich Olympic terrorist kidnappings (Munich), an eye-opening at contemporary race relations in America (Crash) and a big hairy ape (King Kong). In order to make sense on who might be hearing their names called out come Oscar nomination morning, here’s my personal take on the race which includes my personal predictions and other possible candidates who might sneak in unexpectedly in the major categories.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

My Predictions:

George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence

Many of my fellow Oscar prognosticators will tell you: Best Supporting Actor is this year’s most difficult and murkiest category with a lot of possible contenders and no apparent surefire candidates. Many people were outraged that Paul Giamatti did not get a well-deserved Oscar nomination for Sideways last year so this year for his well-received supporting work in the otherwise mediocre Cinderella Man, the Academy might seize the opportunity to right the unrightable wrong. George Clooney is having a banner year. Writing, directing and acting to high-acclaim in his sophomore effort, Good Night and Good Luck. The love for him might get swept up for his acting work in the fact-based political thriller Syriana with a role that required him to gain weight, grow a beard and speak in a foreign language (very, very actorly). One of the most talked about performances in Crash’s huge ensemble is Matt Dillon, as a racist cop. Dillion has been making steady, well-received work since his acclaimed turn in Gus Van Sant’s Drugstore Cowboy. This might be a chance to put the words “Academy Award Nominee” before his name. Though he is technically a co-lead in the film, Jake Gyllenhaal’s campaign to enter the Best Supporting Actor category instead of Lead may get him nominated should the film be a real front-runner. The last spot is tricky. William Hurt’s few minutes of scenery chewing as a mob boss at the climax of A History of Violence has won him both the L.A. Film Critics and the New York Film Critics and that usually equals Oscar nod.

These guys should not rest easy though. Bob Hoskins could sneak in for his well-received role opposite Judi Dench in Mrs. Henderson Presents He has a Golden Globe nomination to his credit. Frank Langella and Donald Sutherland are two veterans who have yet to receive an Oscar nomination, believe it or not and they could get theirs this year with roles in Good Night and Good Luck and Pride and Prejudice respectively. The often maligned career of Kevin Costner has been given a bit of a boost this year due to his well-received turn opposite Joan Allen in The Upside of Anger. Geoffrey Rush and the next James Bond, Daniel Craig could also score for their respective roles in Munich and if critical and indie favorite The Squid and the Whale is a contender, look for Jesse Eisenberg or Kevin Kline’s son, Owen Kline to potentially illicit gasps come Oscar nomination morning.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

My Predictions:

Amy Adams, Junebug
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

This is a category that loves awarding actresses the role of a dutiful, steadfast wife which is why Michelle Williams, who plays real-life husband Heath Ledger’s wife finding out her cowboy husband is having a gay love affair is a lock for the nod. At her tail is Scarlett Johansson whose well-received turn in Match Point, written and directed by Woody Allen, is also likely to be guaranteed a spot in the final five since the Woodman has a very good track record of getting nominations for his actors. She’ll also earn some bonus points for being snubbed for Lost in Translation. The other three spots are pretty tricky. Amy Adams’s performance as a perky pregnant woman in the small indie film Junebug earned her early rave reviews and the first For Your Consideration ads but her film is small and she’s very much vulnerable. Back in 2002, Maria Bello just missed a nod for The Cooler but she might make it this year as another dutiful, steadfast wife in A History of Violence. The last spot is likely to go to Rachel Weisz who is surprisingly doing well with the critics precursor awards and got an Golden Globe nod for her role in The Constant Gardener.

Several other candidates have excellent chances of usurping two of the three not-so-locked spots. This category lacks a true veteran and Shirley MacLaine may get her first Oscar nomination in quite a while for her work in In Her Shoes which incidentally got her a Golden Globe nomination. Another Hollywood vet, Diane Keaton could get some Oscar attention for the ensemble comedy The Family Stone but her lack of precursor attention has hurt her. Frances McDormand’s role in North Country is very baity (she gets sick!) and has a Globe nod but attention for the film has been lukewarm. Another veteran of a foreign variety, Gong Li, may parlay her villainous turn as Hatsumomo in Memoirs of a Geisha to a long overdue Oscar nod she deserved for Farewell, My Concubine and Raise the Red Lantern but the film’s mixed reviews may hurt her in the long run. The stand-out female in the Crash ensemble, Thandie Newton, may get a spot in the Top 5 especially if Crash gets a Best Picture nod. Catherine Keener’s turn as author Harper Lee in Capote has earned her some critics attention (appearing in The 40 Year Old Virgin, The Ballad of Jack and Rose and The Interpreter does not hurt either) but her performance is way too subtle to earn many votes necessary to make the top 5. Laura Linney got a Golden Globe nod for The Squid and the Whale. Watch out for her.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

My Predictions:

Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck

This category is both the easiest and the trickiest to predict. Easiest because four men have emerged to be this category’s front-runners: Heath Ledger earned the best reviews of his relatively short career as a closeted cowboy who has an extra-marital same-sex affair in Brokeback Mountain resulting in quite a few critics awards and a Golden Globe nomination. Playing gay has also paid off for Phillip Seymour Hoffman, a long-time character actor who’s finally being thrust into the limelight with his acclaimed portrayal of writer Truman Capote in Capote. Speaking of real-life characters, much has been talked about Joaquin Phoenix’s portrayal of legendary rock and country legend Johnny Cash. Last year, Jamie Foxx won an Oscar for playing a beloved, recently deceased music legend. Some reviews say Phoenix might follow in Foxx’s footsteps. David Strathairn is also playing a real-life character. This time it’s broadcast journalist Edward R. Murrow in Good Night and Good Luck which has been earning him heaps of praises and awards throughout the year. That’s four spots secured.

Now here’s where the tricky part comes in: What about that fifth spot? The top three contenders include: Jeff Daniels, another never-nominated and talented actor whose role as a writer in The Squid and the Whale has earned him a Globe nod and critical acclaim. Many feel he’s due for an Oscar nomination. Terrence Howard, who’s having breakout year with not one but TWO acclaimed roles, one as a part of the acclaimed Crash ensemble and the other his role as a pimp in Hustle and Flow. He has a shot at a Lead Actor for the latter. Ralph Fiennes, who seems to be everywhere this year and would surely be in the consciousness of the voters, has a shot with two films: The Constant Gardener and The White Countess. If he’ll get a nomination, it will be for The Constant Gardener but The White Countess and his work as Voldemort in Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire will increase his chances. Right now, I will say Jeff Daniels but only barely. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man) and Viggo Mortensen (A History of Violence) both have outside chances but I would not bet on it.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

My Predictions:

Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Even more trickier than Best Actor is Best Actress. Let’s get the sure things out of the way first: Judi Dench has four Oscar nominations so far in her career. A fifth for her well-received turn in Mrs. Henderson Presents is not far off and quite likely given the scant number of contenders in this category. Felicity Huffman, once known as William H. Macy’s better half, will likely join her husband as an Oscar nominee herself. A big television star now thanks to her Emmy-winning role in the big hit series Desperate Housewives, she’ll score another award nomination under her belt for her role as a pre-operative transsexual in the film Transamerica. Reese Witherspoon, like her on-screen husband Joaquin Phoenix, will likewise have a spot secure for her come Oscar nomination morning for her role as June Carter Cash in Walk the Line. The other two spots are tricky. Charlize Theron’s turn as a working-class single mom standing up against sexual harrassment by her male co-workers in North Country earned her excellent reviews but the box-office has not been good. Scathing reviews of her other film Aeon Flux is not going to help things either. But she is still a past winner so she might still make it. Academy Award nominee Keira Knightley might boggle some people’s minds now but the surprising success of her starring turn in the latest adaptation of Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice may get her into Oscar’s radar.

Theron and Knightley should not rest easy. Three-time Oscar nominee Joan Allen might score her fourth Oscar nod for her work in The Upside of Anger but her lack of precursor attention and the fact that it’s an early release will hurt her chances in the long run. Many people feel Ziyi Zhang deserved Oscar nominations for her work in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and The House of Flying Daggers but the tepid reviews of her first major English-language role, Memoirs of a Geisha will make getting a nomination an uphill climb. Bad reviews will also prevent Claire Danes from getting a nomination for her otherwise well-received performance in Shopgirl. Though King Kong was all about the big hairy ape, Naomi Watts managed to stand out from the special effects and earned her some good reviews but the less-than-phenomenal box-office receipts of the film and the bias agains the genre will hurt her. It’s been seven years since Gwyneth Paltrow took home an Oscar. She has a chance again this year for her work in Proof but Golden Globe nod notwithstanding, the film has long disappeared from public consciousness. Keisha Castle-Hughes and Catalina Sandino Moreno are young, previously unknown actresses who managed to score nods in the Best Actress category. The New World’s Q’Orianka Kilcher will probably be hoping three times a charm. She could get a nod for her work as Pocahontas.

BEST DIRECTOR

My Predictions:

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Michael Haneke, Cache
George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
Steven Spielberg, Munich

One thing to remember about predicting the Best Director category: It seldom matches Best Picture 5 for 5. It’s almost always either 4 for 5 or 3 for 5. They always reserve one or two spots for hotshot auteurs. This year will be no exception. Two veterans of this category, Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee will make the cut for their respective films. The Academy loves actors-turned-directors so expect George Clooney to get his first Directing nomination for Good Night and Good Luck. Every year, a foreign and/or maverick auteur makes it in the category even without their respective films getting a Best Picture nomination. I predict this year there will be two: Austrian provocateur Michael Haneke for his controversial thriller Cache and long overdue David Cronenberg for his work in A History of Violence.

Paul Haggis (Crash) and James Mangold (Walk the Line) may see their films nominated for Best Picture but sadly,one or both of them will be left out of the Best Director list. Other possibilities in this category include: Terrence Malick, the legendary and reclusive director of The New World, Woody Allen, receiving his best reviews in several years for Match Point, Fernando Meirelles who received a surprise nominaton in this category for City of God may again sneak in for The Constant Gardener. Peter Jackson who won three Oscars for writing, directing and producing The Lord of the Rings film trilogy is at it again with his remake of King Kong. Though the film got excellent reviews, it also underwhelmed at the box-office. Golden Globe nod notwithstanding, this could cost him the nomination.

BEST PICTURE:

My Predictions:

Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Munich
Walk the Line

Brokeback Mountain, the controversial love story between two cowboys in the 1960’s, is earning heaps of praise (even from critics in the red states) and awards. Consider it a lock for the nomination. On it’s tail is a black-and-white dramatic retelling of the McCarthy Communist witch hunt trials by George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck. Last year, Ray scored a nomination into this category. The Johnny Cash biopic, Walk the Line, will likely follow its footsteps. The other two slots is where things get a bit more difficult. Crash has both its fans and detractors. In Hollywood, there are likley more of the former than the latter (witness Oprah calling it as good as Citizen Kane) so a nomination would seem likely. The Academy loves Steven Spielberg. His new film about the terrorist kidnapping and massacre on 1972 Olympics, Munich, is already attracting a healthy amount of controversy even without an active Oscar campaign. So it’s likely he’ll make it in as well.

What other films out there could usurp one of the slots? There’s a well-received adaptation of the John LeCarre novel, The Constant Gardener. Terrence Malick’s dramatization of the story of John Smith and Pocahontas, The New World, has their respective fans but the film has been proven too divisive (some critics callng it a masterpiece, others calling it boring and pretentious). One has to sit and wait to see if Malick’s legend status pulls it through the Best Picture race. Speaking of legends, Woody Allen is also in that category. Match Point, the film many critics say is his best in years, could be the first Woody Allen film to score a Best Picture nod since the 1980’s. The category usually includes one blockbuster. This year it could be King Kong but it’s genre, the fact that it’s a remake and the underwhelming box-office results could cost it a nod. Oscar-winning screenwrter Stephen Gaghan’s fact-based political thriller Syriana may have a few fans from within the Academy but probably not enough to put it in the Best Picture Top 5. Smaller indie films like The Squid and the Whale and Pride and Prejudice has outside chances but I’m not optimistic.