Shawn Green Not the Answer for the Mets

It was a big day for the Mets on Tuesday. They found out that Tom Glavine’s injury is not career-threatening and that their lefty ace could be back on the mound within 10 days. They also spotted the Cardinals a six-run lead and rallied to win as Carlos Beltran added to his MVP case with a walk-off two-run homer off closer Jason Isringhausen. And finally, the Mets added to their outfield depth by acquiring three-time 40 home run hitter Shawn Green from the Diamondbacks for a Minor League player.

Oh well, two out of three ain’t bad.

In his prime, Shawn Green could do it all. He could hit, hit for power, draw walks, run and he played pretty good defense in right field. But the 2006 version does not do any of those things.

This season, Green has just 11 home runs and a .429 slugging percentage in 411 at-bats. Those numbers are mediocre enough on the surface and look only worse once you factor in that Green has played his home games in Chase Field. According to ESPN, the home field for the Diamondbacks ranks as the top home-run hitting park in the Majors this year. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2006).

Currently, Green hits home runs at a rate of one every 37.4 at-bats. This is a worse rate than what Lastings Milledge (32.5) has given the team in his first look at Major League pitching in a much tougher ballpark. Shea Stadium is the seventh-toughest park to homer in this year, depressing home runs by 11 percent, while Chase Field is 34 percent above average in homers.

Milledge and Endy Chavez figure to be the two players to lose the most playing time with the acquisition of Green. While Chavez is not a home run threat, he still has a higher slugging percentage than Green. And both players are much better in the field than Green, who gets a bad jump on the ball, takes poor routes and has lost all of his speed, with Chavez providing Gold Glove-caliber defense.

How bad is Green’s defense? Chris Dial’s Zone Rating measure (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_and_league_200_innings/) had Green as the 15th worst right fielder in the National League. He was ahead of only Jeromy Burnitz and Jason Lane among right fielders with more than 200 innings played this year. He was so bad, he trailed even Xavier Nady, who exasperated Mets’ fans with his poor outfield play before being shipped to Pittsburgh.

But perhaps the worst thing is that Green comes with a contract for 2007, too. It’s possible that may shut the Mets out of the bidding for top free agent outfielders like Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano in the off-season. It may also signal the end of Cliff Floyd’s tenure with the club. Floyd, a free agent at the end of the season, would seem to have no place with Beltran, Chavez, Green and Milledge already on the team and promising youngsters Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez on the horizon.

It has been a tough fall from grace for Green, who was a star player as recently as 2002, when he hit 42 homers and drove in 114 runs. That season he posted a .385 on-base percentage and a .558 slugging mark while playing his home games in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.

However, the 2006 version of Green has posted just a .777 OPS, an unacceptable mark for a corner outfielder playing in Chase Field.

The final verdict on Green is that in the past two years, two different clubs have paid money to get rid of him. In 2005, the Dodgers paid the Diamondbacks $10 million to take Green in exchange for Dioner Navarro and three Minor Leaguers. And yesterday, the Diamondbacks paid the Mets $6.3 million to take Green for one Minor Leaguer with limited upside. That’s not good.