What If No 9/11
To explore this question, we first have to examine how 9/11 would not happen. To eliminate the plot altogether would require a point of departure far in the past of September 11, 2001. That’s because the attacks that took down the World Trade Center, damaged the Pentagon, made a crater in a Pennsylvania field, and killed over three thousand people was just the latest action of Al Qaeda’s campaign against Western Civilization. Previous attacks ranged from the first attempt to destroy the World Trade Center during the opening months of the Clinton Administration to the assault on the USS Cole during the closing months. It has even been suggested that some of the problems experienced in Somalia, including the deaths of twelve US Army Rangers, can be laid at Al Qaeda’s doorstep.
As each terrorist attack occurred, the Clinton Administration reacted with weakness and fecklessness. Clinton regarded terrorism, at best, as a law enforcement problem and, at worse, as a distraction from things he really would prefer to be doing. The reaction to the deaths of twelve US Army Rangers in Somalia, for instance, was to bug out of Somalia. Osama bin Laden, seeing this, arrived at the obvious conclusion. When pushed hard enough (and it wouldn’t have to be very hard at all), America would fold. So, of course, why not hijack some Airliners and fly them into buildings. What would the Americans do? Fight?
It was Osama’s misfortune that the President on September 11, 2001 was not Bill Clinton or Al Gore, but the man from Texas, George W. Bush, a man of considerable decisiveness. Despite the defeatism and weakness of the far left, the terrorists are still feeling the fury brought about by that Second Day of Infamy.
To eliminate the plot, we very likely need a different President, one would who have taken the terrorism threat more seriously, during the 1990s. That would mean, most plausibly, George Bush 41 being reelected in 1992. Of course, that would also cause all sorts of changes to happen in the course of history in the subsequent fourteen years that would be hard, albeit fun, to imagine.
So, in order to eliminate 9/11 cheaply, let us support that some time in the summer of 2001, the plot is blown. Either the FBI is more on the ball, or one of the terrorists have cold feet. Regardless, the 19 hijackers are arrested before they can board their planes on that faithful day. There is a flurry of news about the failed plot, but by and large 9/11 is just another day when the lead story is Chandra Levy.
So, what happens next?
The War on Terror
No 9/11 under these circumstances doesn’t mean that the War on Terror doesn’t happen. It only means that there is not enough impetus to allow for an invasion of Afghanistan or Iraq. Dodging a bullet is not quite the same wake up call to taking one in the chest.
That doesn’t mean that the Bush Administration will be idle. Very likely the War on Terror would take place more on a covert, special ops basis. Supplies, weapons, and advisors would flow to the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, which on 9/11 were beleaguered in the Northeast of that country. The same sort of help would be sent to Kurds to the north of Iraq and the Shiites to the south of Iraq. Intelligence operations would be beefed up. Some kind of reforms to better mesh intelligence and law enforcement would be implemented. The occasional bombing raid or cruise missile attack would happen as the opportunity permits.
It is, however, very likely that the Taliban would still be holding sway in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein would still be misruling at least the Sunni portions of Iraq. But the policy would be more one of containment and harassment than absolute regime change.
A wild card in this scenario is the prospect of Al Qaeda trying another attack and this time succeeding. Another wild card is Saddam getting his hands on nuclear weapon, with the UN inspectors gone and the sanctions becoming more porous. If either happens when Bush is still President, then all bets are off.
Other Foreign Policy Problems
Of course, Al Qaeda and Iraq are not the only foreign policy headaches that would blight a 9/11-less world. North Korea would still have nuclear weapons. Iran would still be trying to get nuclear weapons and would still be providing aid to terrorists fighting Israel (as, by the way, would be Saddam in Iraq.) China, who tested American resolve by taking hostage a US Navy air crew in the opening months of the Bush Administration, would still be a challenge. The Middle East, as always, would be a running sore. So would Hugo Chavez. There will be all sorts of opportunities for President Bush to shine in dealing with foreign policy challenges, as he has in real history.
The Economy
The US economy would still take a down turn in the wake of the Dot Com Bubble. The down turn would not be as severe, absent 9/11, since billions of dollars of infrastructure in the heart of New York’s financial district would not have suddenly vanished. Absent the necessity of having to maintain large armies in Iraq and Afghanistan, the federal deficit would be smaller. The Bush tax cuts would still have passed, perhaps even on a larger scale with a lower deficit. Therefore the economic recovery would have happened sooner and with more robustness.
American Politics
Many people on the Left believe that absent 9/11, President Bush would certainly be a one term President. The theory is that 9/11 and the resulting War on Terror has been very convenient in highlighting Republican strengths on the issue of national security as opposed to Democratic weakness on the same. There are a number of problems with this scenario.
First, as we’ve already covered, there would be plenty of foreign policy challenges for President Bush in a 9/11-less world that will enable him to highlight those strengths and weaknesses. Second, by 2004, the economy would be growing at a good pace, as it was in real history. The combination of the national security issue and a strong economy would have been too great a hurdle for the Democrats to overcome.
Of course the 2004 race would have been different. There would have been no need (and little desire) to nominate an alleged war hero like John Kerry. Al Gore might have been renominated for another run at the office many on the Left feel he was cheated from. Howard Dean might not have flamed out with a scream, though a Howard Dean run, giving his combustionable personality and far left, wacky politics would have been entertaining at least.
At any rate, Bush would likely be reelected in 2004. The question is, how would Congress be controlled? In 2002 and 2004, the Republicans picked up seats. Absent 9/11 it is likely that they would not have picked up as much, baring a wild card. The Democrats might even have maintained a narrow majority in the Senate, granted them by the defection of Jim Jeffords.
Of course, the far left blogosphere and their crazed allies would not be as potent a force as they are in real history. Cindy Sheehan would just be an irritant to her family and not to the entire nation. Joe Lieberman would have been renominated for his Senate seat with ease and would be coasting toward reelection. Michael Moore would not have been as (in)famous.
Conclusion
A world without 9/11 would have some similarities and some differences from the world we actually live in. It would have less drama, to be sure, with the likelihood of no full fledged shooting wars. Taking an airplane trip would be easier. But life, with all of its triumphs and tragedies, would go on. History would take new directions, closed off on that Second Day of Infamy. What those directions would be, in the long run, few could say.
