The Three Films of May 2007: Pirates of the Caribbean, Shrek, and Spider-Man Will Soon Vie for Supremacy
The summer season of 2006 has ended not with a bang, but rather a whimper. It was a summer of mammoth hits and small surprises, of underperforming films and disappointing follow-ups, of heroes facing evil and pirates facing the supernatural. Snake on a Plane, the last potential blockbuster of the summer, has come and gone.
Leaving in its wake a feeling of disappointment and longing, as it failed to perform to expectations. The Labor Day weekend, long considered the final weekend of the summer season, as now had record-low box office ratings dating back to 2003. Yet, on the distant horizon, there is hope.
Next year, in May of 2007, the summer season is going to open with the stiffest competition in years. Three films, all supposedly final chapters in massive franchises, will be opening in a single month. For us fans, that means three incredible movies in a short period of time, but what does this mean for the companies behind those cinematic offerings? Let’s look at the pieces, and find out.
On May 4th, 2007 Sony Pictures and Sam Raimi will be unleashing the third film in the amazing Spider-Man film franchise. Starring Tobey MaGuire, Kirsten Dunst, and James Franco – all rather hot young stars with a lot of clout behind them (thanks in no small part to the previous two films in this particular series). The last two entries were both incredible successes both domestically and internationally.
The first two movies told the story of young Peter Parker (MaGuire), a young man bitten by a genetically-altered spider and given powers from it. Though the premise is goofy, the first two films had incredible writing and talented cast members make you believe every moment of this comic-based film franchise. And with the third film in the series, director Sam Raimi is hoping to brings things to an entirely new level in terms of action and storytelling, bringing in no less than three villains for Spider-Man to face (not to mention his own inner demons).
Following that will be Shrek the Third on May 18th. The highly successful Shrek franchise has managed to enchant both children and their parents with its smart mix of comedic styles. The first two movies were entertaining without pandering to any particular group, and that made them hits beyond what typical animated films can become. The films star Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Eddie Murphy, and Antonio Banderas.
Shrek the Third will follow Shrek (Myers) as he and wife Fiona (Diaz) attempt to find a king to rule the land, since Shrek himself does not wish to take on that role. Like the first two, this movie promises a lot of comedy that mocks contemporary culture and fairy tales in equal doses.
Last we have Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End, the final film in the mammoth blockbuster series starring Johnny Depp, Keira Knightly, and Orlando Bloom. This is the franchise that has literally stunned everyone. When the first entry was announced, a big summer film about pirates, everybody was expecting a terrible film and a financial flop.
But with the first film, the world was taken from left field by a superb job given by Depp and a fun movie that didn’t take itself too seriously. And with the sequel, Dead Mans Chest, the world was surprised yet again. Not that the movie was a hit, but by just how much of a hit it was. As of this writing, Dead Mans Chest is now the third-highest grossing film in history. It’s currently nestled right below Titanic and Return of the King. And so, eyes are now turned to the third film, to see if it can mimic (or top) such rabid success.
To have Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End coming all in the same month is a real treat for filmgoers, as I stated before. But what about the distributors? How will these films affect one another? Because in the end, there’s a very low chance that a person will go see all three films in a given month. Most people don’t make weekly trips to the theater, and so a choice will be made between the three. And who might come out on top of this?
If one is to go by past experience, the At Worlds End seems to have the clear advantage. But at the same time, Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third are being released first, and are nothing to simply balk at. Spider-Man 3 may just be an astounding crowd-pleaser upon its release, considering Venom (one of the new villains) has dominated nearly every poll on the internet asking “Which villain would you like in a Spider-Man film?”. However, Shrek the Third may just have that universal appeal that gives it the edge. In the end, it seems like quite the toss up.
On top of that, Shrek the Third is targeting (on the majority) a different age group from At Worlds End and Spider-Man 3. This is something strongly in its favor, as it gets such an audience (younger children) all to itself.
When all is said and done, my personal theory is that At Worlds End will be the clear victor in this vicious power struggle. Spider-Man 3 will come into second place, and Shrek the Third will be trailing in third. My reasons for thinking this? Pure and simple pattern observations.
Most movies have some kind of drop in business the week after release, and each week the drop continues, until the film is no longer in theaters. If we follow this pattern, then let’s assume Spider-Man 3 opens big. Let’s say it makes massive amounts of money in it’s first three weeks of release, and then comes the weekend of Shrek the Third. Shrek the Third then takes claim to the majority of business, and has a week before At Worlds End is released. But with three solid weeks ahead, unless Spider-Man 3 is a dull film, it will almost certainly clean house for that entire period.
At Worlds End is expected to debut big. Bigger than big. It will likely open to record-shattering numbers. And in doing so, it is going to kill Shrek the Third, which has only had one week to make any money. At that point, despite Shrek the Thirds broad audience, it will no longer matter. And with At Worlds End not having any major competition in the month of June, it could potentially break records well through the entire month, should it follow in the footsteps of Dead Mans Chest.
So, that’s my two cents.
