American League Wild Card Race a Wild One
Detroit Tigers – One week ago, putting in the Tigers in the Wild Card conversation would have been a waste of breath. The team appeared to be running away with the AL Central, but a bad weekend in Chicago put the White Sox within hailing distances of Detroit for the division championship. With only six weeks to go, it would take a monumental collapse for Detroit not to make the postseason. Their pitching, albeit young and inexperienced, is strong enough to guide them into the playoffs. What happens in October might be a different story. Despite the best record in the sport, their offense pales in comparison to the Yankees, White Sox, or a healthy Red Sox squad. Their bullpen is no guarantee, especially with Todd Jones closing games. But the team is well on its way to a shocking 100-win season and its first trip to the playoffs in ages. They should cruise to the AL Central title and leave the White Sox and Twins battling other teams for the Wild Card.
Rank among AL teams: 2nd
Chicago White Sox – They threw their hat back into the postseason ring with an impressive sweep of the Tigers. The defending World Series champions have had an up and down season and the starting pitching, the backbone of last year’s championship squad, has greatly disappointed. Chicago’s offense has carried them at times, led by a deadly 3-4-5 lineup of Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye. With speed at the top of the order to boot, the White Sox can score runs. Their bullpen is respectable as Bobby Jenks has solidified himself as a top flight closer. Simply stated, the White Sox postseason prospects will come down to their starting pitching. If Mark Buherle and Freddy Garcia can regain their form of a season ago, the White Sox will make it and be a force in the playoffs. If not, the World Series champions could be on the outside looking in. My gut says they will figure it out and get enough pitching to hold off the Red Sox and Twins to secure the AL Wild Card.
Rank among AL teams: 3rd
Minnesota Twins – The hottest team in baseball just a month ago received a crippling blow when rookie pitching sensation Francisco Liriano suffered elbow and forearm pain that have ended his fantastic debut season. Liriano and fellow lefty Johan Santana gave the Twins the best 1-2 top of the rotation in the sport. Santana has and can still carry the pitching staff, but losing Liriano will likely cost the Twins a chance at October baseball. The offense, despite already 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s from Justin Morneau and catcher Joe Mauer challenging for the AL batting crown, still does not strike fear in any opposing pitching staff. The bullpen is solid, with Joe Nathan nearly perfect as the closer, but the Twins will need some help to sneak into the Wild Card spot and I don’t think they’ll get it.
Rank among AL teams: 5th
New York Yankees – Just a month ago, with Alex Rodriguez’s foibles on the back pages of the New York tabloids day after day, the Yankees appeared to be in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. But some shrewd, albeit expensive, trades at the July 31 deadline has the Yankees back in first place in the AL East and on its way to another division title. With the Red Sox battling injuries, the Yankees have gotten a bit healthier. Despite still missing corner outfielders Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield, the everyday lineup remains a modern day murderer’s row. The starting pitching, the team’s Achilles’ heel early in the season, has settled in with Randy Johnson providing more consistency at the top of the rotation and Chien-Ming Wang sliding into his role as a quality third starter behind the always reliable veteran Mike Mussina. The bullpen has stabilized in the middle relief. At the back of the bullpen remains the greatest relief pitcher of all-time in Mariano Rivera. Despite A-Rod’s woes and the occasional bad outing by Randy Johnson, the Yankees have risen back to the top of the heap in baseball and will be dangerous, barring a pitching meltdown, once again into late October.
Rank among AL teams: 1st
Boston Red Sox – While the Yankees have suffered more publicized health issues, no team has dealt with more injury problems than the Boston Red Sox. Surprisingly, injury prone Josh Beckett and the aging Curt Schilling have stayed healthy at the top of the rotation, but the remaining three spots have been a revolving door of journeymen and rookies while Matt Clement, David Wells, and Time Wakefield lick their wounds on the disabled list. The lineup is still potent, but knee surgery for All-Star catcher and team captain Jason Varitek has left a glaring in the middle of the lineup after expected AL MVP David Ortiz and first ballot Hall of Famer Manny Ramirez. The Sox’s defense, usually a weak link, has become the best in the league. But it will come down to the pitching. Despite staying healthy, Josh Beckett has thrown poorly this season. Closer Jonathan Papalbon has come back down to earth after an impeccable start to his first season as stopper. For the Red Sox, their chances at the division will likely depend on their performance in the remaining nine games against the Yankees. Anything less than 6-3 won’t get it done. The Wild Card will be an option and likely come down to which color Sox – red or white – pitch the best over the next six weeks. My crystal ball says white.
Rank among AL teams: 4th
Toronto Blue Jays – The discussion for the AL Wild Card ends here. Out of respect for Toronto, I’m including them in this column, but their postseason chances ended with a disastrous 1-8 road trip last month. Shea Hillenbrand’s message on the team’s blackboard (‘The ship is sinking’) punched his ticket out of Toronto, but also proved prophetic. The Blue Jays have fallen apart and will have to look ahead to 2007. The nucleus of a solid pitching staff is present with Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, and Ted Lilly. Closer BJ Ryan can be dominant and will be in Toronto for at least four more seasons. The team must lock up centerfielder Vernon Wells long term and include some offensive stars around him to give the Blue Jays a legitimate chance to compete in a division with the resource-laden Yankees and Red Sox.
Rank among AL teams: 8th
Oakland Athletics – The leaders in the clubhouse for the AL West division title, Oakland may only get better. If ace pitcher Rich Harden can return from ligament issues in his pitching elbow to rejoin Barry Zito and Joe Blanton at the top of the rotation, the A’s could cruise into the playoffs. Offensively, stud shortstop Bobby Crosby remains sidelined with a back issue. His return could put Oakland over the top as well. Texas and Anaheim remain in shouting distance, but the combination of Oakland’s pitching and the potential returns of two All-Stars could seal the deal for the A’s. Anaheim will make it difficult for them, but the A’s look to be bound for another trip to the postseason. Considering their past October adventures of the last half decade, however, the team may want to pack light.
Rank among AL teams: 6th
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – It’s been a disappointing year for the underachieving Angels. Still not out of the playoff picture, the team has not performed to preseason expectations. Injuries have not helped, including losing No. 1 starter Bartolo Colon for the majority of the season. The emergence of starters John Lackey and Erwin Santana has helped. Outside of Vladimir Guerrero and Garrett Anderson, the offense has been pedestrian at best and certainly not of the level of the successful Angels teams of the past few years. Barring a hot streak or a dismal September from Oakland, the Angels could miss the playoffs while cross-town rivals, the L.A. Dodgers, look poised for some October baseball.
Rank among AL teams: 7th
Texas Rangers – Like Toronto, the appearance of the Texas Rangers in this column is merely out of respect. Despite what the standings may say in the AL West, the Texas Rangers are not making the playoffs. The reason is essentially the same as previous seasons in Arlington. The lack of quality starting pitching cannot be hidden by a potent offense. The trade for slugger Carlos Lee was a nice acquisition, especially if the team can sign him long-term, but the organization desperately needs pitching and until the team adds one or two top of the rotation arms, the postseason will remain out of reach.
Rank among AL teams: 9th
American League Playoff First Round Matchups:
AL Central Champion Detroit Tigers vs. AL West Champion Oakland Athletics
AL East Champion New York Yankees vs. AL Wild Card Winner Chicago White Sox
