Catching on

Over the years in Major League Baseball, as I understand it, catchers haven’t really been looked to for offensive production and certainly weren’t expected to lead their clubs in batting average. You usually find the catcher batting at the bottom of the lineup in the seventh or eighth spot and in the American league as low as ninth. This year, however, a catcher is actually leading Major League baseball in batting average and another four are in the league’s top 40. It may not sound like much, but for a position known for its hitting futility it finally seems like the catchers are starting to really catch on not only behind the plate, but at the plate as well.

For instance, this season five starting catchers actually lead their team in batting average (Twins catcher Joe Mauer leads MLB with .378), another four are second, one is third and at least another five are fourth. Fifteen of the twenty-six non-rookie starters are having as good or better seasons at this point than they did a year ago, and seventeen of them currently have better averages than their career average. Four rookie catchers are batting over .285 on the season and one, Ronnie Paulino of the Pirates, is batting .308.

In 1996, Mike Piazza had a batting average of .362, the highest batting average for a full season by any catcher in history. That history-making average still wasn’t high enough for Piazza to claim the batting title that season. In fact only two catchers in MLB history have won the batting title, Bubbles Hargrave (Cincy) in 1926 with an average of .353 and Ernie Lombardi (Boston) in 1940 and 1942 with averages of .319 and .330. So to put that in perspective Joe Mauer not only has a chance to win the batting title, but also to make history as only the third catcher to do so and possibly with the highest average that a catcher has ever had in a full season.

We’re a little past the midway point of the season now and there is no guarantee that all these players will maintain their current production, but nonetheless the improvement is there and should certainly be acknowledged. I have no clear cut proof, but based on the stats that I do have it looks like the production at the plate for the catcher position is definitely on the upswing. And a batting title for Mauer would certainly get that point across league wide.

Now on to my predictions for the second half of the season�

American League division winners: Boston, Chicago, Texas

I have to go with Boston in the East at this point simply because the Yankees just don’t have the starting pitching right now. I’m sure they’ll make a move, but with nothing really out there it will be hard for them to find an impact arm. Boston’s starting pitching hasn’t been over the top, but expect Beckett to have a better second half and Curt Schilling to continue to be Curt Schilling. Both teams play their final two series of the season at home (Boston vs. Baltimore, Tampa Bay; New York vs. Baltimore, Toronto) and in those games Boston has the clear edge. The two teams meet for the final time in a four game series in New York on September 15-17. Toronto has the talent to make this a three team race and don’t count out either them or the Yankees for the wild card as the final month of their schedule includes games against Kansas City (3), Baltimore (7) and Tampa Bay (7).

The Tigers have been a great story and are more than capable of winning the division with solid starting pitching to date, but Kenny Rogers is known for his second half slumps and the inexperience of the other three starters will likely start to shine through as well. They are on pace to win 109 games, but it’s very doubtful they reach that mark. The White Sox look poised to again win the division and to also make another deep October run, and with the addition of Jim Thome may even be more dangerous than they were a year ago. Plus their starting pitching, outside of Jose Contreras, has yet to reach the level it was at a year ago. If it does watch out, we may have a repeat on our hands. Both teams will likely make a couple moves at the trade deadline and don’t count the Tigers out either for the wild card, as 10 of their final 16 games are against Kansas City and Baltimore.

The West is probably the hardest division winner to pick simply because all four teams are in contention at the break. Oakland and Seattle will likely fade (even though Oakland historically is a second half team) making it a two horse race between the Angels and Rangers. The Angels have a brutal September with games against Detroit (3), Toronto (3), Chicago (3), Oakland (7) and Texas (7). The Rangers September is a little easier with games against Cleveland (6) and Seattle (6), but they also have to play Detroit (2) and of course the Angels (7). I really like the experience of the Angels, but their offense is just too unpredictable to bet on. I’ll take the Rangers on a hunch, and a very possible Vlad Guerrero injury.

And finally the wild cardâÂ?¦Yankees. I can’t see that team missing the playoffs, especially at the expense of Detroit.

National League division winners: New York, St. Louis, Los Angeles

Not even the Mets could blow a 12 game lead with less than 75 games to play (they are actually on pace to win the division by 21 games), but I guess anything is possible. Especially since the Braves are behind them and may not be ready to relinquish their first division title in almost a decade and a half. I don’t foresee a miracle here though, especially if the Mets go out and as rumored add Livan Hernandez to their starting rotation.

Assuming Albert Pujols stays healthy the Cardinals are as close to a lock that a team with only a four game lead can be. They started to slump when Pujols hit the disabled list (they actually lost eight in a row at one point), but since his return have won five of eight. The Reds will collapse as the Reds always do in the second half, as will the Brewers, but look for the Astros to again be in the race for the wild card.

The NL West, as it is in the AL, is by far the toughest to decipher at this point for exactly the same reason. All five teams are in contention with the Padres currently leading the way. The Giants seem too old (plus the Bonds scandal is about to resurface in a big way), the Rockies and D-backs too young, so that leaves the Pods and the Dodgers. If starting pitcher Jake Peavy (4-8, 4.46) can somehow regain his form from ’05 the Padres have a chance at holding their lead, but look for the Dodgers to make a couple moves near the trade deadline and for Nomar Garciaparra’s magical season to continue in to October.

And finally the wild cardâÂ?¦Houston. Like I’d pick anybody else. Clemens didn’t come back for the Astros to miss the playoffs. He’ll will them there and don’t forget that just last year they rode a 48-26 second half record all the way to the World Series. I’m not saying they can make that same kind of run this year, but they’ll get Brandon Backe back any day now and Andy Pettitte can’t possibly continue to have as bad a season as he is having.

So there you go, my predictions for the second half of the MLB season. And you people think I don’t follow baseball. See you at the end for my postseason awards and of course pats on the back.