Election 2006: The 2006 Gubernatorial Elections in the American Northwest

The Northwest is typically a safe haven for the Democrats (Oregon and Washington) and the Republicans (everywhere else). However, both parties face uphill battles in the 2006 gubernatorial elections, as most of the incumbents face serious challenges from the opposition party. Look particularly to Alaska, where Frank Murkowski is in danger of losing his job, and Oregon, where Ted Kulongoski has remained less than stellar in the polls.

Alaska- Incumbent Frank Murkowski (Republican)- Though Alaska is a strongly Republican state, their status as a part of the non-contiguous United States has always given it a contrarian spirit and Democrats stand a chance in state politics, especially in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Murkowski upset many by nominating his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to an open Senate seat in 2002 with his election to the governorship. The likely Democratic nominee is former two term governor Tony Knowles, whose popularity in the state is rising as Murkowski’s numbers are falling. If Murkowski ends up stepping aside, the Republicans will nominate state senator Ralph Seekins but it does not matter at this point. The Republicans will not be able to stop the hemorrhaging of poll numbers before November and Knowles should be a solid successor to the unpopular outgoing governor.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Knowles defeats Murkowski 54-46%.

Idaho- Open Seat- With the nomination of Idaho Governor Dirk Kempthorne to the position of Secretary of the Interior, the Republicans are still strong in Idaho with presumptive nominee Congressman Butch Otter. Otter is conservative enough for the seriously “red” state of Idaho and no Democrat, especially the likes of failed 2002 nominee Jerry Bradley, stands a chance against a popular Republican politician. The only question in the 2006 gubernatorial election, or for that matter the 2008 presidential election, is whether or not the Democrats can get any organization together to stop the Republican domination over the state.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Otter defeats Bradley 75-25%.

Oregon- Incumbent Ted Kulongoski (Democrat)- Kulongoski will face a tough challenge from Oregon Republican Party chairman Kevin Mannix, who should dispatch other conservatives in the nomination process with his strong leadership of the party in a liberal state. Kulongoski has not been very popular within his own party and probably will not withstand a tough Republican campaign against him. The independent streak within Oregon politics does not give the incumbent governor as many advantages as in other states and Kulongoski is going to feel the wrath of a fickle electorate, as well as votes taken away from the Democrats by liberal independents and Greens.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Mannix defeats Kulongoski 53-47%.

South Dakota- Incumbent Mike Rounds (Republican)- Rounds has no Democratic opposition at this point and it would be shocking if anyone significant came to the fore in the 2006 gubernatorial election. South Dakota is going to be left untouched by the 50 state strategy of the national Democratic Party and the anti-Republican sentiment, as Rounds is popular enough to defeat any comers from within our without his party.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Rounds defeats whomever his opponent is with 80% of the vote.

Wyoming- Dave Freudenthal (Democrat)- Wyoming is Dick Cheney country but a Democrat is secure in his position as governor in 2006. Without a viable Republican nominee (or even a ballot filler for November), Dave Freudenthal should easily win 75% of the vote in Wyoming. The incumbent has done a good job of playing to the conservative crowd and keeping state government out of too much local governance, pleasing the more isolationist Western crowds.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Freudenthal will beat whomever the Republicans put up in 2006, with at least 75-80% of the vote.