Fantasy Footbal Preview 2006: Quarterbacks
Fantasy Fallout – QB’s
Welcome back. I’d like to share a quick blurb with the readership, and maybe this will teach a valuable lesson. Someone asked me this yesterday:
“Hey Jeff, I have the 3rd pick in my draft – should I take Peyton Manning?”
Now, I just want to let that sink in for a second (and yes this is from a real conversation)âÂ?¦that means that he’s essentially deciding between LaDanian Tomlinson (also known as the entire Chargers Offense) and Peyton Manning. In general, you don’t want to even be looking at QB’s in the first two rounds. In my opinion, I’d rather snag a top flight WR/RB in round 2 than overspend on Manning. Besides: you’ll be able to get someone with solid numbers in round 5. Promise!
A quick warning: I can’t imagine that anyone is going to completely agree with my picks. When I rate QB’s, last season is exactly that: last season. If I think that the team has changed too much for a statistical repeat, believe me, you’ll know. For now, I’m going to tell you that Tom Brady is overrated (for 2006), and that you have permission to rub it in my face if he leads your fantasy team to victory this year.
Without further ado, the rankings:
1. Peyton Manning
2. Matt Hasselbeck
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Carson Palmer
5. Tom Brady
Peyton Manning is no surprise here. Even though he wasn’t even close to his absurd 2004, he still put up great numbers (28 TD’s, 10 INT). I personally avoid Manning, because people tend to reach for him. Why get Manning in the 2nd round when Hasselbeck won’t go until round 3? Matt Hasselbeck put up similar numbers (24 TD’s, 9 INT), and gets a new weapon in Nate Burleson. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hasselbeck turns out to be the best QB on this list.Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½
McNabb is someone I would put into the “due” category. Look at his stats from 2005: 16 TD’s, 9 INT, and that was in HALF of a year. Granted, that was also the half of the year that TO was still on the team, but even with McNabb’s hernia, he kept the ball moving. With the young receiving talent on the team (plus the return of Todd Pinkston), look for McNabb to score on the pass and the rush.Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½
Carson would be my #1 QB on this listâÂ?¦except for the fact that he’ll probably need a Rascal Scooter to get onto the field. 2005 was a year for “breakthrough” both in terms of stats (32 TD’s, 12 INT), and his legs. Even if Carson just STANDS in the pocket, he’s probably good for 18 TD’s. Mega risk/reward here, but I think he’s a trooper.
OK, bust out the pitchforks and torches. Tom Brady is listed as the number one or two quarterback almost everywhere I look – and I don’t know why. Brady is a yardage beast who spreads the ball; it’s true. However, Brady has had some changes this offseason: WR #2 David Givens has skipped town (Reche Caldwell has not played enough football to become a fantasy option, before you even ask), and Corey Dillon isn’t as explosive as he used to be. I see defenses forcing the Patriots to run, and it’s not like their offensive line is unstoppable. Basically, I see Branch getting destroyed by the double team, and Brady flinging the ball to someone with bad hands. Let someone else take the risk.Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½
6. Marc Bulger
7. Kurt Warner
8. Eli Manning
9. Jake Delhomme
10. Trent Green
11. Daunte Culpepper
Marc Bulger is everything Kurt Warner should be – except for healthy. Bulger gets absolutely no love, but is one of the most wonderful fantasy QB’s. The Rams defense always keeps the opponent in the game, and then Bulger airs it out. If he can stay on his feet (and if Stephen Jackson can stop wasting everyone’s time, maybe he will), he should connect with his bevy of receivers (Holt, Bruce, CurtisâÂ?¦hell, even McDonald) for massive yards and TD’s. Here’s to your health, Marc, because the Rams sure as hell don’t want Gus Frerrote under center.Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½
Now here’s a bit of a reach: Kurt Warner. If Kurt didn’t have an injury history, I would put him at #3. He is in an offense that is the exact replica of the 1999 Rams. Honestly, if he plays every day and doesn’t score more than 20 TD’s, I’llâÂ?¦do something incredibly stupid and embarrassing to express my frustrations. He has both Fitzgerald and Boldin, who are certainly capable of 10 TDs apiece, and the addition of Edgerrin James should make defenses concentrate on the run. For stats, I would say he hits his 2000 numbers with the Rams (although 2001 isn’t that far off). Yes, I know I’m reaching, but I think it’s time we gave the grocery-bagger another look.Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½
Eli Manning had a very promising year last year, and he looks to keep things going. No real change to the offense (except maybe some dust on Amani Toomer) leaves me thinking that Manning knows the offense now, and knows how to improve on his already impressive 2005. If he can involve Tiki more in the passing game, he could really boost those numbers.
Delhomme had a great year last year, and I think he can finally relax. I mean, it’s not just the Steve Smith show now, what with the arrival of Keyshawn Johnson. There should also be some focus on the running game this year with Stephen Davis gone. Believe it or not, this drops his value. Delhomme was valuable because he could throw the ball anywhere and Steve Smith would come up with it. With a consistent offense, there will be less necessity for him to throw on every play, so look for the numbers to be a little inconsistent while the Panthers figure out their game.Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½
Trent Green is going to do better this year. He just has to. Yeah, I know it’s a bit of a reach, but he is just primed for a rebound year. His weak 2005 numbers reflect the number of attempts (50 passing attempts less than last year), because the two-headed monster of Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes meant that KC never had to pass. This year, KC will basically be calling up opponents before the game and saying, “Hey, we have Larry Johnson! Whatcha gonna do about it?” It’s not like LJ is a secret anymore. Now let’s say that the O-Line is healthy: that means that LJ is going to be on the loose, and defenses will be careful of him. This also means that Tony Gonzalez is free to run (no more blocking duty for Gonzo), and that Eddie Kennison won’t see the double team. Add it all up, and Green is due.
Culpepper is hurt and crippled. He’s hurt from the beating he took last season, but he’s crippled because he has no Randy Moss. Instead, he has the next best Randy, Randy McMichael (along with Marty Booker and Chris Chambers). Problem is, none of them have the explosiveness of Moss. Now, does this mean Culpepper will suck? Not a chance! With that many weapons, even Tim Rattay could put up a monster season. I’m worried that Culpepper won’t be healthy in time to start the season (although he’s making “great progress”), and that you’ll be without a quarterback for the first two weeks of the season. If it turns out that he really does recover in time (and doesn’t show any lingering effects), this is a steal. Before you commit to Culpepper, make sure he’s involved in contact running drills at camp. That’s where his real fantasy value comes from: making defenses watch his legs.
12. Drew Bledsoe
13. Jake Plummer
14. Drew Brees
15. Aaron Brooks
16. Michael Vick
17. Brett Favre
Drew Bledsoe is an interesting case. He is in an offense that is built to destroy opponents, with Terry Glenn and TO. However, I think he has officially crossed over the peak of his career. He’s not going to be using TO as a springboard to Fantasy Stardom – he’s going to be using him for life support. He took beating after beating in 2005 (and if you lose points for sacks, drop him a few slots on your list), and wasn’t as accurate as he should have been. That said, I still think Bledsoe has an outside chance to surprise. His numbers may be on the decline, but the team around him really can’t get much better. The only part to improve would be the Offensive Line, which didn’t do Bledsoe many favors last year (and grabbing Fabini for the line was a step in the right direction). Good sleeper pick here, and if you can snag him late, more power to you. He’ll have a few 3 TD weeks that will definitely save your fantasy week.
While Ashley Lelie’s stock drops like Enron’s, Jake Plummer’s is on the rise. A very selective QB is great for a real football team (18 TD, 7 INT), but not a fantasy one. Javon Walker will give Plummer even more options to play with, but Denver’s bread and butter is the run, and Plummer will take a backseat to Tatum Bell and Ron Dayne. His value varies by league, but I say take him no earlier than round 5.Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½
Brees is going to Bizzarro world. “What is this place where my runningbacks get hurt, and I actually have solid receivers? Where is the Tight End I’m supposed to give the ball to when LT is tired?” Brees could make one hell of a splash with the Saints, and give Horn and Stallworth some serious fantasy cred. Brees is all over the place on Fantasy Charts, as he is still one of the most underrated QB’s I have ever seen. I believe in him, and so should youâÂ?¦especially for his draft slot. If anyone can make Joe Horn a contender again, this is the guy to do it.
Aaron Brooks made me sweat last year. My QB #1 turned into a “must-start” – for the opposing defense. However, if I learned ANYTHING in fantasy, it’s that you can’t hold a grudge. Brooks has one amazing weapon (Moss), and one ready-to-bust-out weapon (Porter). LaMont Jordan also likes to catch the pass, so Brooks should never need to run the ball – which is not to say that he won’t get the goal-line carries (LaMont Jordan only had 4 rushing TD’s in 2005âÂ?¦he’s a delicate flower, that one). Barring last year’s fiasco, Brooks is normally good for 20 TD and 18 INT, so he could be wonderful in Oakland (read: shootouts). Also, he makes a nice QB #2 plug-in against Houston, Arizona, the Jets (playoffs time) and the Browns.
Vick has legs. Vick has an arm. Vick still has no control over the skills of the rest of his team. He would rather run than throw, and it definitely shows. If he turned into a Culpepper-esque runner (i.e. “I will bruise my way to the endzone”), he would be much more valuable. Instead, he likes to run for yards, and then let T.J. Duckett bruise his way past the goal-line. If you want to draft Warrick Dunn as your quarterback, look no further. He won’t score a lot of passing TD’s, but he’ll have a solid showing of total yards. In QB terms, that’s a bad thing. Wait for him to develop a rapport with Michael Jenkins (who is just WAITING for some attentionâÂ?¦look at what he did when Matt Schaub started instead!), or to get injured. Either way, one of the two needs to happen this year.
Brett Favre is not worth your time. I’d end the paragraph here and move on, but then I’d get 50 people asking for an explanation. He technically “ranks” here, but his upside is so unlikely that I’d let someone else deal with it. Let’s see hereâÂ?¦ he has gotten a little worse every year (with an abysmal 29 INT last year). He has no consistent running game. He has no blocking. His best receiver would be a WR #2 anywhere else. He plays some of the best pass defenses (Chicago, Buffalo, Seattle, New England) in a row through the middle of the season. Yes, I know that he’s Brett F-ing Favre, and I know what he can do. Until he gets at least as much time in the pocket as David Carr, he’s going to drag your team down. For a QB #2, you can start him in weeks 2-6 when your real QB #1 has a bye, and Favre is playing weak defenses. Unless he really does slip to this slot (not likely, because some diehard cheesehead always grabs him in round 5), let someone else take the risk.
18. Ben Roethlisberger
19. David Carr
20. Byron Leftwich
21. Mark Brunell
22. Brad Johnson
23. Jon Kitna/Josh McCown
24. Philip Rivers
25. Rex Grossman
26. Billy Volek
27. Chris Simms
28. Steve McNair
Big Ben is probably hearing Big Ben (the clock) inside of his head. Well, if he can manage to get his helmet back on over his swollen noggin, he will suit up to doâÂ?¦exactly what he did last year. The Steelers move the ball like the Broncos, sans multiple passing targets (Hines Ward is only one man). I don’t see much possibility for improvement, as the Steelers are going to be short a WR (Randle El) and giving the ball to Willie Parker anyways.Ã?¯Ã?¿Ã?½
David Carr has two things in common with Rodney Dangerfield: he gets no respect, and during the season, he’ll get buried in the turf. I have never seen a quarterback get so mercilessly pounded. He gets, what, two seconds to hike and chuck? Give the Texans an O-Line and Carr becomes an MVP. Until then, he’ll be airing it out to Andre Johnson to even out his TD’s with his INT’s. If you lose points for sacks, look elsewhere.
Byron Leftwich – Injury worries aside; I think it actually HELPS him to know that Jimmy Smith is retired. If Fred Taylor stays healthy (like THAT’s going to happen), Leftwich can move the ball downfield by spreading out his targetsâÂ?¦in an ideal world. More likely, look for either Wilford or Smith to become the red zone favorite (probably Smith). If not, you should have a QB #1 to rely on anyways.
Is this the year Mark Brunell finally busts out? No! I don’t care how good Santana Moss is – Brunell has never had more TD’s than he did last year (23). I think that Brunell has hit his peak, and even though he has no pressure on his job, Clinton Portis is going to be doing the bulk of the scoring. I don’t care if the WR #2 there is Brandon Lloyd: he’s not worth a pick any earlier than this. Did I mention that last year was his first full season since 2000? Hello injury worries!
Brad Johnson has upside. He has a command of his team, some established receivers, and is one of the most consistent QB’s I have ever seen. I only wish it were a better consistent. You see, he’s good for about 2 TD’s, a game, but he’s also good for an injury of some kind. Mr. Johnson is getting older, and he doesn’t exactly have the best talent around him. Still, he’s enough of a hard-ass where you wouldn’t regret starting him as your QB #2 against the Packers (provided he’s still alive).
Kitna/McCown is an interesting situation. I am aware Kitna is the starter, but I’m also aware that Kitna is not as good as McCown, and will probably lose his job at some point over the season if/when he struggles. I expect McCown to be starting one way or another by week 6. The weapons are certainly there, as the Lions are just waiting to pounce. If Mike Martz can turn Kurt Warner into a superstar, there’s no reason he can’t work the magic here. Can you say “sleeper?”
Philip Rivers is all the way down here, and it’s not really fair to him. For all I know, he could become the next Peyton Manning. Then again, he could be the next Grossman, or Boller or even Ryan Leaf. Until he picks up on how SD works (First Gates, then LT for the score), he’ll probably be posting one INT and one TD a week. Maybe he’ll even incorporate McCardell/Parker into the offense – WOW! If you have the roster space, draft him to bench him (and hope he becomes hot stuff).
Grossman is one hell of an injury prone player. He makes Fred Taylor look like an ironman. However, I think this is the year he hooks up with Muhammad for some 2 TD 1 INT games and then lets the rushing machine do the rest. Of course, it’s far more likely he’ll tear his ACL while returning from the rest room, but you never know.
Volek finally gets his chance to start, and even though he can throw the ball to Drew Bennett and David Givens, that’s about all there is for the offense. He doesn’t have a whole lot of experience, and he has Vince Young breathing down his neck. Also, what little rushing game the Titans have (Chris Brown) apparently wants out of town. This means that defenses will probably force the Titans to run, and it’s been a while since the Titans have done it successfully (see: Eddie George). If the first 25 guys on this list weren’t good enough for you, he won’t be either. Not worth the trouble here.
Chris Simms needs to put it all together, and he needs to do itâÂ?¦now. Griese is out of town, and Simms is the main attraction. Now, if he can try and get Clayton the ball, maybe Tampa Bay can be something on the fantasy radar. Great upside, but colossal downside. Even if he does put it all together, it’s still going to be an end-zone filled with parking for Cadillac (hopefully he learns to use those man/bear hands to catch some passes in the flats).
McNair is finally out of Tennessee, and throwing the ball for the Ravens. Unfortunately, the Ravens didn’t really need a quarterback as much as they needed more receivers. Relying on Mason to get open 24/7 only works for so long, and with Mike Anderson coming to town, McNair really won’t get to run in the red zone (which was what made him valuable). McNair will be tossing it to Heap all game, but that’s only good for you if you own Heap. Oh, and McNair is almost a lock to get hurt. This is not your starter unless you have some serious problems.
#29. Charlie Frye
#30. Chad Pennington
#31. Kelly Holcomb/JP Losman/Craig Nall
#32. Alex Smith
Frye has upside. There, I said it. Joe Jurevicious and Braylon Edwards should make it easy for him to hit the open receiverâÂ?¦if he could. I just don’t trust his actual skills. Besides – this is the Reuben Droughns show. Still, Cleveland improved the line enough where Frye has a chance. Good upside, to the point where he becomes a QB #2 option anyways, and he’ll probably be a FA in your league if/when he starts to produce. Again, if you have the bench slot, pull him off waivers before week one and sit. If he can’t produce against the Saints, he won’t get another chance until week 8 (vs the Jets).
Speaking of the Jets: Chad Pennington? He’s still playing? So it would seem, as Chad looks to come back from a shoulder injury fromâÂ?¦2004. Really. Chad wasn’t healed in time for 2005, and his career was in jeopardy. In reality, it’s still up in the air. Even if he does play the season, he has only the aging Coles to throw the ball to, and it’s not like defenses are worried about Curtis “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!” Martin. Avoid like the green on his jersey is leprosy.
The Bills don’t have a passing game. They’re trying, they really are, but the line is just not good enough to allow any human other than Willis McGahee to move the ball. Add in the roulette wheel of quarterbacks that they’ve got going on, and you’ve got to do better. I would rather draft a backup like Matt Schaub (Falcons) instead of one of these guys.
Alex Smith, you’re almost entirely innocent. It’s not your fault that the best player on your entire team is Antonio Bryant. It’s not your fault that Frank Gore is the best you can do for a run threat. Heck, it’s not even your fault that the 49ers have the most porous D that I’ve seen in a long time. However, it is your fault that you got benched last year. Make the plays, and learn. Brown won’t become start-worthy for another season, but at least it’ll be fun to watch him get destroyed when your defense comes to town.
