Fantasy Football Preview 2006: Running Backs
The year 2003 was the year of the sheep, and 2004 was the year of the monkey. What about 2005? The year of the runningback. Unless you’re living under a rock, you already know about everyone’s #1 and #2 fantasy picks of 2005, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson. To put it in perspective, Tomlinson had more passing touchdowns (3) than Jets starting quarterback Chad Pennington and Chargers starting quarterback Phillip Rivers had combined (2). Not impressed? Shaun Alexander averaged more touchdowns per game than the entire 49ers offense!
What you might have missed, however, were some of the emerging big names. Who are the rising stocks on the RB market? Who should I draft, and when? Whose value has changed the most? The results might surprise you. 2006 looks to be the year of the runningback all over again.
Starting from the top, there are the elite three runningbacks:
Shaun Alexander
Simply put, Alexander is number one in your hearts, and number one on your draft sheet. He has gotten better every year (if that’s even possible), and the only major change on the Seahawks is the loss of OG Steve Hutchinson. Either way, Alexander is still going to get the ball, and he’s going to come up big. Don’t expect 2005 numbers, but they’re going to be impressive. 20 TD’s hardly seems a lofty expectation.
As for Larry Johnson, he has talent, no doubt. I’ll probably get skewered for listing Johnson below anyone,but one simple fact remains: when has Johnson ever played a whole season as the starting RB? Johnson is at his best when he comes in mid-season after the usual season-ending injury to Priest Holmes. However, Holmes is already assumed to be finished for this season (and probably his career), so Johnson gets the rock off the bat. Either way, Johnson is losing carries to Holmes or RB3 Dee Brown in Herman Edwards’ revamped running game, but with over 500 carries planned for this season’s run game, I think he’ll have plenty of opportunities. Honestly, if he can stay healthy, if he can maintain his pace all season, and if KC’s offense can keep up the pressure, Johnson could easily have 25 TD’s this year. However, those are a lot of “if’s.” Realistically, I expect a little under 20 TD’sâÂ?¦certainly nothing to be ashamed of.
Finally, LaDainian rests in the #3 slot. How the mighty have fallen. There’s no knock on Tomlinson’s skills here, and it’s not like he didn’t produce in 2005. The real question is, how will Phillip Rivers spread the ball around in the new offense? Without Drew Brees, everyone on San Diego becomes a bigger risk. New quarterback, new offense. Does this mean you want to pass on him at #3? Not a chance. Just be warned that the days of LT having a touchdown in every offensive category have likely come to an end. Look for 15-17 TD’s this year and a sharp drop in receiving yards.
Edgerrin James
Tiki Barber
Rudi Johnson
More safe picks here. Edgerrin should thrive in the Cardinals offense (which has such a ridiculous passing game that it forces defenses to be honest), and seems immune to aging. The only real concern with Edgerrin is whether or not the O line can hold up, which remains to be seen. As for Tiki Barber, he is still the heart of the Giants offense, and even though 2005 was a career year, it’s not really possible for him to get the ball much more than that in 2006. The opportunity is there; it’s just a question of whether or not Tiki can step up his game to that next level. If he’s ranked as my #4 back, you better believe that I think he can do it.
Rudi Johnson is going to be running the ball a lot more in Cincinnati, especially with Palmer taking it easy on the ACL. If Palmer can keep the passing game alive (and with Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh, it can’t be that hard), Rudi will look like a steal. The only reason that he’s this far down on my list is because of Palmer.
As for Clinton Portis, I expect him to be more of the RB he was in the second half of last year, providing the pop that Washington will need to be a serious contender. To be perfectly honest, I think Portis could be the biggest steal of the bunch here with his upside.
LaMont Jordan
Corey Dillon
Now we’re getting a little riskier. LaMont Jordan had a breakout 2005, but I expect that his numbers will suffer with Aaron “I’ll Run It Myself” Brooks at the helm. Keep in mind that in games where he only ran the ball, Look for a drop in receptions, carries, and overall scoring opportunities.
Ronnie Brown looks to have a better year in 2006 now that Miami has “smoked out” Ricky Williams, but I can’t expect too much more than 2005. Even if Culpepper revives the passing game in Miami, he’s still going to be taking carries away from Brown, so it’s a push.
Steven Jackson disappointed in 2005, but looks to come back in 2006 with Bulger back in the huddle. As long as the Rams can get the ball into Torry Holt’s hands, the rest of the offense can and will take care of itself.
And now for my first risk/reward pick of 2006: Corey Dillon. He was starting to show his age a little bit in 2005, and with Brady wishing that David Givens were still around (look for a big year from Deion Branch), moving the ball is going to be tough for Dillon. So why is he all the way up here? Let me put it this way: if he plays, he scores. In 2005, Dillon scored 12 TD’s in 12 games. Besides, it’s not like he’s going to be losing carries to Kevin Faulk any time soon.
Tatum Bell
DeShaun Foster
Domanick Davis
Julius Jones
Willis McGahee has slipped in your draft, but not so much in his ability. With the Bills making a conscious effort to add a target for J.P. Losman (Peerless Price), I think McGahee might actually find the two inches of space he needs to tear it up. McGahee is gold if the defense has to watch the pass…which is a pretty big “if.”
Another bit of a reach, I see Tatum Bell as the star in Denver. Now that Anderson is out of the picture, Bell is free to be the feature back. However, there’s talk that goal-line carries will be going to Ron Dayne. If Bell can nab those goal-line carries, he’ll be your RB #1 for sure. I’m a risk-reward kind of guy, so I take him here.
Also getting room to run is DeShaun Foster, who, let’s face it, had an awesome year overshadowed by his lack of touchdowns. Well, it seems that Stephen Davis has finally decided that falling down in the end-zone isn’t worth staying in Carolina, and that makes Foster the big kahuna. Look for the yardage to improve, but with Keyshawn Johnson joining in across from Steve Smith, don’t expect a huge scoring increase. Also, try and handcuff up and coming DeAngelo Williams, if you can.
Brian Westbrook was pivotal in Philly after Terrell Owens got suspended, and looks to continue the trend of moving the ball downfield with the run and the catch. Problem is, he also looks to continue his trend of never getting in the end-zone (only 3 rushing TD’s in 05). A solid option in yards/receptions leagues, but I don’t expect more touchdowns than in 2005.
Domanick Davis looks to rebound from a miserable 2005, and now that David Carr has 2.5 seconds before he gets sacked (up from 1.5), I think he can do it. Big upside here, and if Carr can keep defenses honest, Davis is going to make Houston fans go “Reggie Bush who?”
Carnell Williams
Willie Parker
Julius Jones
Warrick Dunn
Kevin Jones
Deuce McAllister
Indianapolis Colts (Dominic Rhodes, Joseph Addai)
Cadillac Williams had the keys in the ignition at the beginning of last year, but ultimately got a flat tire. Getting injured is one thing, but if you get hurt and play like a waste of a high draft pick (see: Randy Moss in 2005), it’s going to cost you. If he can stay healthy (and that’s a big “if,” given his bowling-ball rushing approach), he’s in RB #1 territory. Williams has massive upside for his draft position.
Speaking of upside, how about that Willie Parker guy? With Jerome Bettis out of the picture, Parker will only be competing with Duce Staley. I figure that Parker gets all the first down through third down carries and splits goal-line carries with Staley. If Parker can get the big gains, the touchdowns will follow.
Julius Jones is looking to rebound, but has a lot of pressure from Marion Barber (make sure to handcuff!), who filled in rather nicely for Jones in 2005. I predict some splitting of carries, and some rushing opportunities lost to “The TO ShowÃ?©” passing scheme. I’ll probably get a lot of flak for this one, but with the pressure from Barber, I move JJ down on my list.
Warrick Dunn is a fantastic yardage RB, but T.J. Duckett steals all those precious goal-line carries. I assume that the Falcons will run the ball even more this year (now that Vick has even less people to throw to), but there is always that saying: “never draft the runningback who plays next to Michael Vick.” He’s a godsend in yardage leagues, racking up many 100+ yard rushing games, but unless Duckett is hurt (which does happen, actually), you really need a better option here.
Kevin Jones looks to try and return to 2004 form, and with Detroit improving, could probably do it. Major sleeper pick here, and with Mike Martz running the show in Detroit, he could be a very high reward pick. A lot of this depends on whether or not Detroit gets the passing game chugging along. Here’s to Jon Kitna and Josh McCown: if Detroit can threaten with the pass, KJ becomes an RB #1. Immediately.
As for Deuce “I Have Toothpicks For Ankles” McAllister, you really wish he could stay healthy for a whole year. I know I do. Make sure to handcuff, especially with McAllister (although Reggie Bush is likely going to cost you a 5th round pick). If he stays healthy, he’s RB #1. If he doesn’t, he’s going to be cheering Reggie from the sidelines. Personally, I’m going to avoid drafting him.
With the loss of Edgerrin James, whoever fills in at RB in Indy looks to be a big producer. Problem is, no one knows who is going to fill in just yet. My bet is on Dominic Rhodes, but with Joseph Addai splitting the carries anyways. Or maybe the other way around, with Addai getting the bulk of the workload. Either way, unless one becomes a consistent producer (like Rhodes became in 2001 when Edgerrin James went down for the season), neither one will be getting the ball enough for you to start confidently.
Reuben Droughns
Fred Taylor
Curtis Martin
Green Bay (Green, Davenport, Gado)
Ravens (Anderson, Lewis)
Bears (Jones, Benson, Peterson)
Kevan Barlow
Vikings (Taylor, Moore, Fason)
This is bargain bin territory right here. Droughns could actually be a big sleeper pick this year, especially with Cleveland upgrading their offensive line. Just remember – – getting to the red zone is not the same as scoring a touchdown. Also, he’s on the 49ers. That’s kind of a death sentence right there. Add in the continued presence of Frank Gore, and you can see why I have Droughns down here. Honestly, I don’t know why most draft sheets have him higher than this – – he had four good weeks in the middles of the season, and all were against lousy defenses. Worst of all, he STILL couldn’t score more than 2 TD’s all year!
Fred Taylor is pretty much a gamble. It’s really a question of “how many games will he miss this year?” The risk was worth it a few years ago when Taylor was younger, but now that he’s hit the big 3-0 (and coming off a lousy season), I really can’t recommend him too high up. Granted, if he stays healthy, he’s a steal. If he’s available this late in your draft, I don’t have any qualms about him keeping the bench fresh (sell high if he starts off strong!).
Curtis Martin continues to remind me of the Rocky franchise: each year is worse than the last, and the hero is starting to show his age. Quit while you’re ahead, Curtis! CM has looked older and slower every year since 2003, and shows no signs of revival in a weak offense. I bet the Jets wish they still had LaMont Jordan right about now.
Green Bay was a mess last year, what with Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, Tony Fisher, and Samkon Gado (where did he come from, anyways?). Whoever runs the ball here is likely to get hurt the following week anyways, and none of these guys is going to have a chance to run the ball, seeing as GB is going to be behind all season long. The only player of value on Green Bay is Donald Driver. End of story.
The Ravens look to platoon Mike Anderson and Jamal Lewis, so neither one is a safe bet here (although if you have to, I suggest leaning towards Anderson for the goal-line carries). Even if Lewis does manage to get back to his 2000 form, Anderson will be taking the majority of the carries here.
Chris Brown looks to maintain the status quo in Tennessee, and might actually improve a little now that McNair won’t be running (literally) the show. A pretty bad RB2, but not a bad plug-in for those easy defenses.
The Bears are also going to be using both Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson (with the third wheel known as Adrian Peterson), so neither one will be up to fantasy snuff unless Jones gets his wish to be traded (not going to happen). Unless one of them emerges as a TJ Duckett in Chicago (read: steals the goal-line carries), this is not worth the trouble.
Then we have Kevan Barlow, who looks to be�well�Kevan Barlow. With a drop-off from 2004, we can only assume that things will be getting worse for Barlow, who, dare I say it, is on an even weaker Cleveland team. Avoid.
Finally, we have the Minnesota Vikings. Almost anyone on this team is sure to play backup to something better on your fantasy squad, and runningback is no different. With Michael Bennett and Moe Williams leaving, the Vikings are left with Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, and Ciatrick Fason. Avoid all three like the plague until one of them emerges as the red-zone back. Taylor actually has promise, so don’t write him off just yet.
