Fantasy Football Preview 2006: Wide Recievers
Last time, we talked about RB’s. This time, I’m going to introduce you to an invaluable comrade in your quest for Fantasy Glory – – the multi-tool WR. Now, before I get started, I need to give the four commandments of the WR draft:
#1. DO NOT DRAFT A WR WITH YOUR FIRST PICK. You need a runningback first and foremost, and that’s why I wrote a cheat sheet for them first. I understand that you think Terrell Owens is due for another monster season, or that you think Steve Smith will do even better than last year (not a chance), but the simple fact remains: each team has ONE starting runningback, and THREE starting receivers. Seeing as most leagues have a 2 RB scoring system, and that there are only 32 teams (with a few of those teams without a specific starting RB), someone is going to get shafted, and shafted early. That said, save your receivers for round two. They’ll be waiting.
#2. DO NOT DRAFT TWO RECIEVERS FROM THE SAME TEAM. This should probably go without saying, but any Peyton Manning touchdown that goes to Reggie Wayne is a TD that DOESN’T go to Marvin Harrison. Only draft two from the same team if you know you can trade one (or if they’re Anquan Boldin and Larry FitzgeraldâÂ?¦which is not going to happen in any draft).
#3. PAY ATTENTION TO THE BYE WEEKS. For example, Indianapolis and New England share the same bye week, so drafting Reggie Wayne and Deion Branch is REALLY going to hurt in week 6.
#4. RECEPTIONS ARE INVALUABLE. Most fantasy leagues count receptions as a half point, and value touchdowns at about six. Now, lets say that you can choose between a touchdown heavy WR (like Hines Ward) or a reception heavy WR (like Anquan Boldin). Well, if you’re nabbing 7 receptions a week, that’s already a guaranteed half-touchdown. Throw in the yards that come with it (let’s say its 1 point for every 20 yards), and you’ve already got that possible touchdown Ward might have given you, and that’s before you find out that Boldin scored anyway. Trust me, it adds up.
Now, onto the picks!
#1. Torry Holt
#2. Chad Johnson
#3. Larry Fitzgerald
#4. Anquan Boldin
#5. Steve Smith
#6. Terrell Owens
I can actually feel the rage coming from the other end of your monitors. “Torry Holt!? #1!? How!? Why?” In terms of sheer consistency, Torry Holt is one of the few “sure things” on this list. In 2005, he missed two weeks, and still racked up 102 receptions (second best in the NFL) and 9 TD’s. Those numbers were against tough defenses like the Colts and Giants, and Holt made it look like he was playing the Texans all year. The only possible setback for Holt is if Bulger goes down again (keep in mind that Holt still put up solid numbers when Bulger went down). Even if Bulger does get hurt, Gus Frerrote will have no trouble chucking the ball to Holt. He’s a guaranteed WR #1 no matter what
Chad Johnson has an interesting predicament, and I really don’t know what to do with him on my draft sheet. One on hand, Carson Palmer could be healthy, and he could be Jesus in Spandex again. On the other hand, if Palmer isn’t healthy, CJ’s numbers could really suffer. Either way, he’s going to get the ball. The question isn’t so much “will he get the ball” as it is “where will he get the ball.” If Palmer isn’t up to snuff, there will be a lot more rushing red-zone plays, meaning less TD’s for Mr. Riverdance. A bit risky up here, but I think he’ll put up 2005 again, or close to it.
Boldin and Fitgerald are essentially a pick em. Both were amazing last year (notice the trend of yards and receptions that both have. More receptions means more touchdown opportunities), and with Edgerrin James forcing defenses to watch the run, I expect even better numbers this year. Kurt Warner favored Fitgerald a little more for the red-zone, so he gets my nod here. The fact that they had 103 receptions each (the league best) is enough to make one of them your WR #1.
Steve Smith, is an anomaly. I really don’t know how he had such an insane year last year, but I know why he saw the ball so much. Pop quiz: who was the WR #2 on Carolina in 2005? If you said Ricky Proehl and his 25 (!) receptions, you win (although I’ll bet you Googled it, you cheater). Steve Smith was Carolina’s entire offense last year. That’s definitely not going to be the case this year, as Keyshawn Johnson is now the WR #2, and I’ll be damned if he’s not going to nab at least 50 receptions this year. What about 2005’s RB, Stephen “I’ll Fall Down in the Endzone Because I’m a Vulture” Davis? Gone. In his place, DeShaun Foster, or more importantly, a pair of knees that bend. When it all adds up, Smith won’t be getting the ball nearly as much, but he’s still going to be Steve Smith.
Terrell Owens is also a problem, and I don’t just mean his personality. When he’s the lone receiver, ala Steve Smith (or like Philly in 2004), he puts up the best numbers in the league. The problem with TO is that he’s on Dallas, which means he’s going to be competing with Julius Jones, Jason Witten, and Terry Glenn for who gets the ball the most. I would put Owens higher, but he has something worse than an injury-risk: I call it an “idiot risk.” Owens is a risk to miss any amount of games (like an injured player) for not keeping his mouth shut. I’d put him as a pick em with Steve Smith, to be honest.
#7. Marvin Harrison
#8. Chris Chambers
#9. Randy Moss
#10. Santana Moss
#11. Plaxico Buress
#12. Darrel Jackson
#13. Roy Williams
#14. Donald Driver
#15. Reggie Wayne
#16. Hines Ward
Well, now that the hard part is over with, on with the picks. Marvin Harrison is the inverse of Torry Holt: lots of touchdowns, less receptions. This means that he can have a few huge weeks (think 100 yards and 2 TDs), and a few miserable weeks (he had two games with only 2 receptions for under 20 yards). Still a solid WR #1.
Chris Chambers is the offense for Miami, and he’s going to try and bond with Daunte Culpepper. Chambers was already accounting for at least 30% of the plays in 2005, but Culpepper likes to air it out more than to gain short yards with the TE (sorry Randy McMichael), which means more loving for Chambers…if Culpepper stays healthy.
It seems that Oakland really wants to capitalize on that Randy Moss guy, so they brought in Aaron Brooks this offseason. Now, let’s not be cruel to Mr. Brooks; he’s one of the most consistent QB’s out there (excluding last year’s debacle). He will be more than happy to air-mail the ball to Randy Moss, who looks to return to the 2004 form that made you draft him so early last year. This could be the biggest steal of the draft right here, so if you’re looking for a player with a LOT of upside for his draft slot (possible third round pick), here he is.
Santana Moss, where were you for the second half of 2005? Moss started off 2005 with one hell of a bang, racking up 5 TD’s and 743 yards in the first seven weeks. Problem is, Moss fizzled and turned into a WR #3 until a superb week 16 (160 yards, 3 TD’s) put him on the map again. Again, a huge risk/reward pick, and a possible steal-of-the-draft if Moss can keep up the pace for more than 7 weeks. Right now, I’ll settle for the inbetween and a great WR #2.
Plaxico Burress continues to fly under the radar. I have no idea why, either. Yeah, he didn’t have the insane 2005 that everyone wanted, but he’s still the best WR #2 for your team. Averaging 5 receptions a game and 50 yards is one thing, but Burress has one thing that most receivers do not – – ridiculous streaks of unpredictability. Case in point, his 10 receptions for 204 yards and 2 TDs against St Louis last year. Now, those streaks can also work against you, as he finished the season with some sub-par performances (and a few forgettable “2 reception” showings). I expect big things from Plaxico, and so should you.
Darrel Jackson really slipped on the big boards this year, but I take him here. He got hurt in 2005, and missed most of the season. If he can bounce back (and I think he can), he becomes Matt Hasslebeck’s best friend again, and gives you 7 receptions, 60 yards and a TD every week. Health is a big issue, but I’m a risk/reward kind of guyâÂ?¦and I like him more than the rest of this list any day of the week. If you can get him later (because your draft is filled with idiots who look at the top Yahoo! Rankings), by all means, do so. Big upside.
If Roy Williams is healthy, he is going to be your WR #1 this year. Think about it: Detroit benefits from Mike Martz (responsible for St. Louis’ ridiculous offense since 2000), and already has fantastic receiving talent in Williams, Charles Rogers, and Mike Williams (who shows up later on in my rankings). If Williams can become Detroit’s version of Torry Holt, you’ll love every Sunday while he destroys weak teams like Green Bay and Minnesota.
Donald Driver is the only fantasy option on Green Bay. Period. He is the offense, all by himself. Because Green Bay can’t maintain a lead for more than 20 seconds, Favre has to air-mail the ball all game. Guess who the only Packer with decent hands is? Yep. Driver is good for 5 receptions and 50 yards, give or take a TD. The real bonus of Driver is that you don’t lose points for Favre’s interceptions.
Reggie Wayne is the first actual WR #2 on this list, and he continues to fight the aging Marvin Harrison to be the object of Peyton’s affection. Wayne put up WR #1 numbers in 2004, and slipped a little in 2005. I predict a much bigger slip in 2006, as defenses are going to force the Colts to run the ball to move downfield. I think the Colts will love the chance.
Hines Ward is a lot like the ketchup of his namesake (and field, for that matter). Sometimes when he plays, he’s got the juice flowing, and puts out a consistent showing all year (2003). Other times, he’s like the almost empty bottle that gives you a quick blast of the juice, and then makes a farting/wheezing noise as it peters out. For Ward, it’s been a lot of the latter (a few one catch performances in 2005 was too much for me). Don’t get me wrong: Ward will score. He just won’t score every week. And when he doesn’t score, it might cost you a fantasy week. He’s a good WR #2, but I don’t trust him any higher up than here.
#17. Deion Branch
#18. Joe Horn
#19. Andre Johnson
#20. T.J Houshmandzadeh
#21. Javon Walker
#22. Rod Smith
Now we’re getting some bang for the buck. Deion Branch put up solid WR #2 numbers in 2005, with the constant flow of receptions making him a “must-start.” This year, David Givens has jumped ship, leaving Branch as the clear cut target for Tom Brady. Well, almost. See, Brady likes to spread the ball around a lot. Add in the possibility that Branch sees double coverage every game, and now this pick just got a whole lot riskier, didn’t it?
Joe Horn is going to revert to form in 2006. There. I said it. I’m tired of this “Joe Horn doesn’t have it anymore, and Stallworth is the future for New Orleans.” You know why Horn had a lousy year? He was hurt, and when he got back, he still had Aaron Brooks as his quarterback and a lack of a running game. This year, he’ll be full strength and avoiding the double team. Could be a huge steal, as he might turn into a WR #1 again with Brees at the helm.
Speaking of underachievers, how about Andre Johnson? He was ranked as the #3 or #4 WR coming into 2005, and then promptly got hurt. It also didn’t help that David Carr spent all season getting sacked anyways. Thankfully, the Texans added some blocking, so look for Johnson to rebound – – especially with Jabbar Gaffney out of the picture.
Javon Walker is coming off of a season ending injury in 2005 (it ended his season as well as Green Bay’s season), and looks to thrive in the Broncos offense. The question is whether or not he can be 100%, and whether or not he can wrestle those scoring opportunities from Rod Smith. Rod Smith is the real target for Jake Plummer, and Ashley Lelie is busy in a contract holdout (read: bench time). Walker and Smith will probably show even numbers this season, but Walker can be more dangerous with speed (if healthy). A pick em either way.
To save my hands some pain, here’s a quick run through of the rest of the 25 notables. Players you will want to target as a sleeper will be labeled accordingly.
#23. Derrick Mason – If he can turn his plentiful receptions into movement downfield, he could hit paydirt a lot more often. Maybe.
#24. Joey Galloway – I really respect the man, but he’s almost 35. Throw in the fact that no one knows how Chris Simms will actually move the ball, and he’s riskier any higher than this.
#25. Reggie Brown – I don’t think anyone remembers that Reggie Brown is going to be McNabb’s #1 target. For a WR #3, I’d be thrilled.
#26. Eddie Kennison – With Tony Gonzalez missing his explosiveness, look for Kennison to finally get some recognition from Trent Green. He’ll probably put up WR #3 numbers at worst, so he’s a safe pick here.
#27. Lee Evans – Great receiver, lousy team. If the Bills manage to get a passing game together, his value skyrockets. Keyword: If. His success depends upon Losman and Holcomb, and if Peerless Price can take some of the heat off.
#28. Jerry Porter – SLEEPER – I don’t think anyone remembers how good Porter was supposed to be in 2005. With Brooks air-mailing it in shootouts, here’s your chance to nab a possible WR #2.
#29. Terry Glenn – SLEEPER – Yeah, I really don’t give Glenn a lot of respect on my draft sheet. Yes, he’s alongside Terrell Owens. Yes, he’s the WR #2. Yes, he’s going to be open much more oftenâÂ?¦you know what? You’re right. Glenn gets the sleeper tag.
#30. Donte Stallworth – He’s not going to get as much freedom as he did in 2005, but Brees will likely spread the ball out to him. A great bang for the buck receiver here, and not a bad WR #3.
#31. Mushin Muhammed – SLEEPER -A ridiculous 2004, and then a disappointing 2005. Here’s the best part: it wasn’t his fault. If you watched Rex Grossman QB for those last few games in 2005, you saw that he got Mushin the ball. A lot. I expect a huge boost in numbers for 2006 if Grossman can stay off the cart. WR #2 numbers are almost guaranteedâÂ?¦
#32. Keenan McCardell – Man, I was the smartest guy ever when I sold him high in week 4 last year. Spurts of productivity, but his role is unknown with Philip Rivers running the show. If he drops this low in the draft, it’s worth it to pick him up and see.
#33. Ernest Wilford – SLEEPER – A pick em between Wilford and Jones. Both are probably going to put up numbers equivalent to a good WR #3, and either one could emerge as the premier red zone target (why risk getting Fred Taylor hurt?).
#34. Matt Jones – SLEEPER – See above
#35. Nate Burleson – SLEEPER – Was supposed to be a WR #1 last year with Culpepper, but got injured. Now he’s on the Seahawks, and plays behind the injury prone Engram and Jackson. Look for one of them to get hurt, and Burleson to emerge as a big play maker. The question is, do you have the room on your bench until it happens?
#36. Laveranues Coles – Once a big producer, now has to play in the most anemic offense this side of the 49ers. If Pennington can ignite the passing game, then Coles jumps to a WR #2. Problem is, I don’t think he can do it.
#37. Drew Bennett – Bennet had a great 2004, got hurt in 2005, and now has a new QB for 2006. Could be a great value pick, but probably will see the double team anyway.
#38. Isaac Bruce – Older and not really that much wiser, Bruce is in danger of losing his job to Kevin Curtis. Still good for a few WR #1 games in the year, but mostly inactive otherwise. A good plug-in against good offenses (read: shootout).
#39. Koren Robinson – Hello target practice! Supposedly out of rehab, K-Rob looks to bring back his Seattle glory daysâÂ?¦in Minnesota. Being the number one target for Brad Johnson sounds like a great opportunity, but he’s going to get double teamed every game (why bother protecting the run?).
#40. Michael Clayton – SLEEPER – Let me get one thing straight: I hate Michael Clayton. I hate how he put together that ridiculous end of the season in 2004, only to come away with nothing in 2005. I hate how he ruined fantasy leagues all across the nation. Either way, if he even shows a third of what he showed in 2004, he’s insanely valuable for his draft position.
#41. Antonio Bryant – You know you have a problem when this is the best player on the entire team (49ers). Seriously, you have to do better than this.
#42. Mike Williams – SLEEPER – The rookie season is over, the jitters are out, and Williams is ready to be option #2 in Detroit. In a pass-heavy scheme, he could become your WR #2. At this point in the draft, he’s almost a free pick.
#43. Peerless Price – A rough year on the Falcons means purgatory or the Bills. Same thing, right? Price is going to try and ignite the passing game. At this point in the draft, you’re looking for some possible hope, but even if he does get the passing game going, he won’t jump any higher than your WR #3.
#44. Michael Jenkins –SLEEPER – Last Sleeper tag, I promise. Has been trying to get Vick to throw him the ball, and except for when Schaub filled in at QB (he had a great game), Jenkins never really got the ball. Here’s hoping that Vick learns the importance of the pass.
#45. Robert Ferguson – He’s still on the pass-heavy Packers, but Favre isn’t going to stray from Driver enough to make this one worthwhile. A tolerable WR #3 if you get into a lot of trouble.
#46. Brandon Lloyd – He’s going to be on the Redskins, but he’s not going to get many balls with Santana Moss on the prowl.
#47. David Givens – OKâÂ?¦new team, but with Drew Bennett trying to take all of your carries. Imagine playing with Branch on New England again, except seeing the ball even less.
#48. Kevin Curtis – A good plug in for shootouts, as Curtis is fighting Isaac Bruce for the WR #2 spot. If someone on St. Louis gets hurt, he’s fantasy gold.
#49. Jabar Gaffney – He played a decent WR #3 season on the Texans, so why not on the Eagles? If McNabb can make nice and get him the ball, he becomes a great pick for his position.
#50.Cedrick Wilson – The Steelers move the ball on the ground, remember? You need to do better than this.
That pretty much wraps it up. Remember: 2004 was not a fluke for everyone. If you saw something in 2004 that didn’t happen in 2005, find out why, and see if it might happen again. Oh, and one last thing: Now that you know my secrets, stay the hell out of my fantasy league!
