Fear and Loathing the Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies of the past five years have been big on offense but without much pitching. In 2004, they finished second in the National League in home runs and third in runs per game. That season, their two biggest hitters were Bobby Abreu and Jim Thome. Those two players combined for 72 home runs and 210 RBIs and both players made the All-Star team.
Fast forward to 2006 and the Phillies find themselves again with a terrific offense. But neither Abreu nor Thome are sill on the team. Equally surprising is that Philadelphia received almost nothing in return for their two stars, at least not much that is driving their Wild Card chase this season.
Thome missed most of the 2005 season with an injured elbow and during the off-season, Philadelphia dealt him to the White Sox for three players, with only Aaron Rowand paying dividends for the parent club this season. Rowand has a good glove in center field but contributed very little with the bat before fracturing his left ankle in mid August.
Despite being one of the best all-around players in the game, Philadelphia fans never warmed up to Bobby Abreu. The team finally cut ties to Abreu in late July, when they dealt him to the Yankees for three Minor League players in a bid to get out from his big contract.
When the Abreu trade was made, the Phillies were six games below .500 and fading. Two months later they are tied for first in the Wild Card standings and have positioned themselves as the scariest team for the Mets in the National League. How on earth did this happen?
Despite missing their two biggest stars from the past five years, the Phillies remain one of the best offensive clubs in the league. Ryan Howard has been unstoppable the past two months. He hit 14 homers and drove in 41 runs in August and has been even better so far in September. Through the 25th, Howard is batting .421 with a .575 on-base percentage with an .868 slugging mark for the month. Philadelphia has also gotten strong performances out of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Jeff Conine the past two months.
In August and September, the Phillies are 33-19. The offense has helped carry the day, as Philadelphia has scored six or more runs in 24 games in that stretch. In games decided by three or more runs, the Phillies are 19-8, which is a .704 winning percentage. However, what makes the Phillies a real danger coming into the post-season (should they make it) is their pitching staff.
Prior to the All-Star break, the Phillies had a 4.83 team ERA. Since that time, the staff has a 4.48 mark. And it’s 3.97 for the month of September. As impressive as that is compared to what they did early in the season, the starters have been even better than that. The past two months, Philadelphia’s five primary starters (Hamels, Lieber, Moyer, Myers and Wolf) have posted a 25-8 mark with a 3.86 ERA. In September, the starters have gone 11-3 with a 3.47 ERA.
What makes that such a concern for the Mets is that three of the five starters for Philadelphia are lefthanders. Hamels, Moyer and Wolf have gone 14-5 the past two months. Meanwhile, the Mets have recorded a 7-15 mark in games started by a southpaw in August and September.
If the Phillies make the playoffs as the Wild Card, they could not play the Mets in the first round. The team with the best record in the league should not be afraid to play anyone in the playoffs. But this Mets fan will shed no tears if Philadelphia loses in the first round or fails to make the playoffs altogether.
