Going Fishing: Impact of the Florida Marlins Castoffs

The Florida Marlins’ disgraceful fire sale was bad for the state of baseball and the longevity of the sport in southern Florida, but it was tremendous for the teams who profited from it. The Mets and Red Sox are the biggest winners coming out of the mess, with the Blue Jays, Cubs, Twins and Tigers filling major holes as well. Only time will tell how these deals pan out, but here is my analysis on the impact the former Marlins will have for their new teams this season, as well as the implications the fire sale may have for fantasy baseball owners.

Potential for Major Impact:

Carlos Delgado (NYM): Just one year after signing with the Marlins, Delgado is on the move again, this time to the New York Mets. The acquistion of Delgado adds the power bat that GM Omar Mianya has been searching for since taking over as General Manager after the 2004 season. Delgado figures to put up his usual offensive output providing he stays healthy. His 33 home runs and 115 RBI in 2005 proved that his numbers should remain stable in any ballpark, considering Dolphins Stadium is hardly a hitter’s paradise.

• Impact on the Mets: Delgado transforms the Mets lineup to one of the elite in the National League and eleviates some of the pressure on Carlos Beltran.

• Fantasy Impact: Assuming he is healthy, Delgado owners should expect his usual numbers provided Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca (projected no. 2 hitter) and Carlos Beltran can get on base consistently.

Josh Beckett (BOS): The coup of the offseason may be the Red Sox acquistion of Beckett, who at 26 has already proven to be a big time pitcher with a wealth of potential. His performance in the 2003 playoffs left no questions about his skill level, but his inability to stay healthy leaves doubts about his durability. If Beckett can find a way to make 28-33 starts, he instantly becomes the ace of the Red Sox staff and the heir apparant to Curt Schilling.

• Impact on the Red Sox: Beckett makes a starting staff that includes Schilling, Clement, Wells and Arroyo one of the best in the American League. He also gives them the big game pitcher they have been lacking since Schilling’s surgery last offseason.

• Fantasy Impact: Beckett’s ERA and home runs allowed will go up in the American league and a hitter’s park like Fenway, but he will still put up big strike out numbers and can be counted on for 15-20 wins if he can stay healthy.

A.J. Burnett (TOR): Leaving as a free agent, Burnett signed a lucrative 5-year, $55 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. While his talent has never been questioned, his 49-50 career record leaves serious questions about his impact on the Blue Jays. However if he does finally reach his potential, Burnett will make the Blue Jays starting staff one of the best in the American League.

• Impact on the Blue Jays: If Burnett finally gains a measure of consistency, he instantly makes the Jays top two starters in Roy Halladay and himself one of the most impressive and potentially dominant in all of baseball.

• Fantasy Impact: Burnett has spent his entire career playing in a pitcher’s paradise in Florida. The Sky Dome is not exactly Camden Yards, but it isn’t all that unkind to hitters. Burnett can be a high end 15-18 game winner if he finally puts it all together but owners can probably expect much of the same he has shown in Florida.

Potential for Large Impact:

Juan Pierre (CHC): Pierre is coming off a subpar season by his standards, but will solidify the role of leadoff hitter for a team in the Cubs that have been struggling for years to fill that hole (Corey Patterson, anyone?)

• Impact on the Cubs: Pierre is a spark plug that can jumpstart an offense, but the Cubs don’t have enough around him to really enjoy the benefits of his play. Chicago’s offense is reliant on Derrek Lee to repeat his MVP-esque play of last season, and that is not likely.

• Fantasy Impact: Pierre figures to get back on track this season, and return to his usual batting average and OBP. He should remain willing to steal plenty of bases as he regards himself as a pure base stealer, and should not decline in running production like other players entering their 30s.

Luis Castillo (MIN): Pierre’s partner in crime at the top of the Marlins championship lineup, Castillo’s move to the Twins gives the team an experienced top of the lineup hitter and gold glove defensive second baseman.

• Impact on the Twins: Castillo’s slap hitting style is perfect for the turf of the Metro Dome, but his days as a stolen base threat appear to be mostly over. Castillo is the quintessential hit and run player, and the Twins figure to utilize National League style offense a lot more in 2006.

• Fantasy Impact: Castillo wil hit for a high average and have a strong on base percentage, but do not expect to have him carry your team’s stolen base total anymore.

Mike Lowell (BOS): Lowell is coming off the worst season of his career, in which he only hit .236 with 8 home runs. The move to the Red Sox gives Lowell a chance to prove he isn’t finished, and the Boston lineup just might give him enough protection to be able to do that.

• Impact on the Red Sox: Lowell will adequately replace Bill Mueller defensively and should provide better power numbers as well. If he can return to form, Lowell may be able to provide much of the offense lost by the subtractions of both Mueller and Kevin Millar as well.

• Fantasy Impact: Taking Lowell is a risk for any fantasy owner, but its all about upside. You likely didn’t have to take Lowell high if you drafted him this year, and if you’re not expecting too much you may be pleasantly surprised.

Paul Lo Duca (NYM): The backstop fills the void left by Mike Piazza in New York and should become an instant leader in the New York clubhouse. Lo Duca’s offensive production has decreased in recent years, but he is still one of the better offensive players at his position.

• Impact on the Mets: Lo Duca will provide more with his grit and toughness than with his bat for the team. He is also a defensive upgrade over Piazza. A terrific situational hitter, Lo Duca projects to bat second for the Mets in 2006.

• Fantasy Impact: Lo Duca hit just six home runs last year and turns 34 this season. His best offensive years are most likely behind him but at the catcher position he can probably still be a top half player in most fantasy leagues.

Potential to Have an Impact:

Todd Jones (DET): The addition of Jones gives the Tigers a credible closer, but the real test will be getting the ball to him. While Jones had a tremendous season last year, it is unlikely he will have the same success in Detroit.

• Impact on the Tigers: Will all depend on how the rest of the pitching staff performs. If they can get the ball to Jones with the lead, he should be formidable.

• Fantasy Impact: With Percival out the door, Jones will get the saves in Detroit and any closer is a good closer in fantasy baseball.

Juan Encarnacion (STL): One of the more underrated players in baseball, Encarnacion should fit nicely behind the big three in St. Louis. He should bring stability and better defense than the retired Larry Walker, who was on his last legs last season.

• Impact on the Cardinals: An upgrade over Walker, but in essence he really replaces Reggie Sanders. He should be able to match the production that the Cards got from Sanders last year.

• Fantasy Impact: Encarnacion should benefit from being just another member in the stacked Cardinals lineup, and generally veteran players thrive in the relaxed St. Louis environment.

Guillermo Mota (CLE): After being traded to Boston along Beckett and Lowell, Mota was then sent to the Cleveland Indians in the trade that brought Coco Crisp to the Red Sox.

• Impact on the Indians: Mota failed his physical before the Crisp trade was completed, forcing the Red Sox to sweeten the pot a bit to get the deal done. Assuming Mota can stay healthy, the back end of the bullpen in Cleveland should be one of the tops in all of baseball. However that may be a large assumption.

• Fantasy Impact: Going into last season, Mota was projected to be the closer in Florida, however that didn’t quite pan out. Mota doesn’t figure to get a lot of saves as long as Bob Wickman is healthy, but should he fall to injury Mota would be first in line to fill his void.

Alex Gonzalez (BOS): The veteran shortsop may be a very pleasant surprise for the Red Sox this season. A terrific defensive player, Gonzalez has also demonstrated some power, and that might blossom in Fenway Park.

• Impact on the Red Sox: As with Lowell, at the very least he will be a terrific defender. The Red Sox will be more predicated on pitching and defense this year, and Gonzalez is a key component in that.

• Fantasy Impact: Gonzalez has a chance to be an above average offensive shortstop in Fenway, and could reach the 20 home run plateau for the second time in his career.

Others:

Jeff Conine (BAL): figures to split time with Kevin Millar at 1B and may see some time in the outfield.
Ron Villone (NYY): capable lefty who will most likely be used as an extended reliever.
John Riedling (STL): will contribute to the Cardinals bullpen but like Villone, has no fantasy value.