Mets Still Team to Beat in National League
In a word – no. The Mets have a more solid team from top to bottom than the Dodgers. Their hitting is better, their pitching is better and the Mets areas of weakness have been overblown, while the Dodgers recent hot streak has masked their problem areas.
All season long, critics have said that the back of the Mets rotation is too weak to win in the playoffs. Now, with Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine both nursing injury problems, the whole rotation is viewed as a question mark. Obviously, the Mets are in better shape for the post-season with their aces healthy. But the Mets 3-4-5 starters, Steve Trachsel, Orlando Hernandez and John Maine, have gone 11-2 since the All-Star break. The trio’s ERA in that time frame is 4.22, but that is due to a couple of blowout outings. They have combined for 12 quality starts in 20 appearances since the break. For a comparison, in his 20 starts this season, Pedro Martinez has thrown 13 quality starts.
If the Mets’ starters can keep them in the game, they still have one of the best bullpens in the Majors, despite the loss of set-up man extraordinaire Duaner Sanchez. Since the break, the five top relievers on the club, the ones most likely to be used in the playoffs, have been lights out. Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Roberto Hernandez, Chad Bradford and Pedro Feliciano have combined for a 2.35 ERA in 69 innings. And the Mets just picked up Guillermo Mota, once a top setup man with the Dodgers, to see if he has anything left in the tank.
On offense, the Mets feature the most productive, balanced attack in the league, even with Cliff Floyd on the disabled list and Xavier Nady dealt for Hernandez. New York is second in the league in runs scored, fourth in home runs and first in stolen bases, with a remarkable 82% team-success rate. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, with their recent hot play, have moved up to fourth in the league in runs scored but are still last in the league in homers.
Much has been made of the Mets’ record in one-run games, which is often viewed as more the result of luck than skill. The Mets have a 26-12 record in one-run games, compared to the 13-15 mark of the Dodgers. But in games decided by four or more runs, a stat used to determine the best teams, since good teams do not get blown out on a regular basis, the Mets sport a 31-17 mark, good for a .646 winning percentage. That’s 90 percentage points better than the Dodgers’ 30-24 mark. And seven of those Dodgers blowout wins have come in their recent hot streak.
Have the deadline deals made the Dodgers a better team? Yes, no question. But their recent 19-3 streak has elevated them to just eight games over .500. They remain a streaky team with no power, a questionable bullpen and injury-prone stars
The Dodgers began play after the All-Star break losing 13 of their first 14 games. So their 19-3 record gives them just a 20-17 mark since the traditional mid-season mark. Thirteen of their games in the recent hot streak have come at home, where the Dodgers sport a .600 winning percentage. They are five games under .500 on the road. The Dodgers face a key series in San Diego this week against the Padres, the team closest to them in the NL West standings.
While the Mets’ bullpen is a team strength, the Dodgers bullpen has its share of question marks. Los Angeles has gotten solid efforts from closer Takashi Saito and set-up man Jonathon Broxton, but their other relievers have been spotty, at best. Saito, the 36-year-old rookie from Japan, and Broxton, who just turned 22, have not been exposed to a Major League pennant race, much less the pressure of playoff baseball at the highest levels.
The middle of the order for the Dodgers features Nomar Garciaparra, J.D. Drew and Jeff Kent. These are three name players and this would have been an intimidating squad in 2002, when they combined for 79 homers and 284 RBIs. This year they’ve posted just 37 homers and 193 RBIs. Each of the three players have been on the disabled list the past two seasons and the oft-injured Drew has been the healthiest of the bunch this season, appearing in 111 of the team’s first 124 games.
Meanwhile, the Mets’ 3-4-5 hitters, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright, have combined for 86 homers and 269 RBIs. And each of the Mets sluggers has played in at least 110 games this season and 144 games in 2005.
The one area where the Dodgers have the advantage is in starting pitching, where they can trot out All-Star game starter Brad Penny followed by Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux. But Penny has a 5.73 ERA in the post-season and Maddux has a lifetime 11-14 mark in the playoffs.
The Mets remain the team to beat because of their offense, relief pitching and under-rated starting pitching. The Dodgers recent play has made them a likely post-season participant, but to claim they are the best team in the National League is myopic. With their lack of power, questionable bullpen and poor play away from Chavez Ravine, they have yet to prove they are in the same class as the Mets.
