NBA 2005-06 Western Conference Preview: Southwest Division
1. San Antonio Spurs: Last season: 59-29 1st place Southwest Division, 2nd place Western Conference.
Offseason: Coming off their second title in three years, the Spurs knew that they didn’t want to mess with a good thing. So rather than drastically overhauling their team with big-money free agents, they upgraded sensibly adding veterans Michael Finely and Nick Van Exel. While Finley’s and Van Exel’s best years are behind them, they are still solid players that will add to the Spurs’ already outstanding depth.
Along with the two veteran guards, the Spurs also added Argentinean big man Frabrico Oberto. Oberto is a power forward that will add some defensive toughness and refined offensive moves to the Spurs frontcourt.
San Antonio also resigned clutch power forward Robert Horry during the summer.
Strengths: This team is absolutely loaded. They are, perhaps, the most versatile team in the league. They can beat a team with their high-powered offense or stifling defense. They can play an up-tempo fast break style just as effectively as they can in a half-court grind-it-out defensive struggle. Their roster is filled with veteran leadership and immense talent. The starting backcourt of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobilli is one of the most talented and exciting guard tandems in the league. Add that to a frontcourt featuring all-world Tim Duncan, defensive specialist Bruce Bowen, rock solid Michael Finely, underrated Nazr Mohammed and clutch shot specialist Robert Horry you have, arguably, the most talented team in the league. When you add the best coach in the NBA, Greg Popovich, you have a team that has “dynasty” written all over it.
Weaknesses: It’s tough to find any weaknesses on this team. While they are very talented on offense, they can be streaky at times. This streakiness can also spill onto the free throw line, as the Spurs are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the league.
Key Player: While Tim Duncan is the unquestioned leader of this team, Tony Parker really makes this team go. Parker can get frustrated on the court and, at times, it can make him play undisciplined. When he tries to do too much with the ball, the team really sputters. Parker needs to continue to mature on the court in order for the Spurs to live up to their potential.
Season Outlook: There is no reason that this team should not repeat as champions this season. With an already talented roster, the additions of Finley, Van Exel and Oberto ensure that the Spurs will remain the class of the Western Conference.
2. Houston Rockets: Last Season: 51-31 3rd place Southwest Division, 5th place Western Conference.
Offseason: The Rockets ended the season on a tough note, as they were on the losing end of a blowout game seven in Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. To ensure that it wouldn’t happen again, the Rockets overhauled their roster by adding new faces at nearly every position.
Stromile Swift, an agile power forward that will block shots, rebound and give the Rockets a decent third option on offense, was one of the biggest names to switch teams during the offseason. His presence will give Yao Ming some much needed help on the defensive end of the floor. Lonny Baxter has been a disappointment in the NBA, but may benefit form a change of scenery. His signing will add some depth and bulk to Houston’s frontcourt.
While improvement in the frontcourt was more pressing for Houston, they did not neglect their backcourt. The Rockets spent their first round draft choice on Illinois guard Luther Head. The athletic Head is a bit undersized to play shooting guard in the NBA, but his shooting ability and leadership are quite strong. Free agent signing Derek Anderson will help the Rockets stretch defenses with his 3-point shooting ability and help them run with his quickness and skill in the open court. Shooting guard Dion Glover will improve the Rockets offensive attack with a polished outside game, but will contribute little defensively.
Houston also gambled by trading veteran Mike James for the talented, but troubled, point guard Rafer Alston. While Alston has shown flashes of brilliance from time to time in his turbulent NBA career, he may lack the focus or mental toughness to be successful in the high-power Southwest Division.
Strengths: The Rockets possess one of the most dynamic scorers in the league in Tracey McGrady. McGrady can score form anywhere on the court and is not afraid to take, and hit in most cases, the big shot at the end of the game. There are few players more explosive than the high flying small forward. In addition to McGrady, Yao Ming is becoming a major force on both ends of the court. His combination of skill and size is unmatched in the game. While they are not one the most talented offensive teams, the Rockets play first-rate defense. Their size and athleticism allow them to be able to shut down most teams on any given night. The team is also well coached by Jeff Van Gundy.
Weaknesses: The Rockets must become a balanced offensive team to compete in the West. Their offense revolves, almost completely, around Ming and McGrady. If either one, or both for that matter, is struggling it can be a long night for the Rockets. The team is also a bit inexperienced and seems to lack toughness. Yao Ming is a mountain of a man but does not possess the necessary toughness to truly dominate the paint.
Key Player: Rafer Alston really needs to control himself in order for the Rockets to be serious contenders in the Western Conference. While his talent is unquestioned, his spotty decision-making can really hurt a team. In addition to his questionable decisions-on-the-court, his off-the-court actions can also be a major liability. Alston openly feuded with Raptor Head Coach Sam Mitchell last season in Toronto and even openly wondered if “he belonged in this league”. If Alston plays with a level head, though, the Rockets will be a very dangerous team.
Season Outlook: The Rockets should finish with one of the top two or three records in the West this season. The addition of Swift will be huge for them as he can take some heat off of Yao in the post. While they still appear to be a player or two away from challenging the Spurs for the Southwest crown, this is one team no one will want to play come playoff time.
3. Dallas Mavericks: Last Season: 58-24 2nd place Southwest Division, 3rd place Western Conference.
Offseason: Mavericks owner Mark Cuban had to make an easy business decision this summer that was also a tough basketball decision. Under the league’s new collective bargaining agreement, a new amnesty clause allowed NBA teams a one-time opportunity to rid themselves of a cumbersome contract by waiving that player out right. In this case, the Mavericks let go, arguably, the heart and soul of the team Michael Finely. The loss of Finely opens the door for the talented duo of Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels to get some more minutes, but could come back to haunt the Mavs come playoff time when they need some true leadership.
While the Mavs lost Finley, they did pick up Doug Christie a defensive minded swingman that has a knack for shutting down big time scorers with his physical style of ball. Hopefully for the Mavs, Christie will be on the court a lot more than he was during his injury-riddled season with Orlando last year. Dallas also signed reserve center DeSagana Diop. The 23-year-old center, who has been a complete bust over his four year career with Cleveland, will replace the newly-retired Shawn Bradley as Erick Dampier’s back up.
The Mavs also resigned point guard Darrel Armstrong.
Strengths: Despite losing Steve Nash and Michael Finley in consecutive offseasons, the Mavs still have plenty of firepower on the offensive end of the floor. Dirk Nowitzki is one of the most versatile scorers in the league and can score over 40 points at any time. Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Marquis Daniels and Keith Van Horn are all talented scorers that can explode for big games at any time. While they lost some toughness with the departure of Finley, the Mavs are a very athletic and versatile team. Avery Johnson is an up and coming coach that stresses solid defense and demands his team play hard at all times.
Weakness: Even though the Mavs are quite talented, they are very inconsistent. Keith Van Horn and Jerry Stackhouse, while good pros with solid careers, have both been known to fail in the clutch. Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels are also very streaky on the offensive end. The point guard play could also be an issue for Dallas this season. Jason Terry is more of a shooting guard stuck in a point guard’s body. He’s a decent option, but lacks the pass first mentality of a true point guard. Second year guard Devin Harris is a nice player with immense potential, but is still a year or so away from being a true NBA point guard.
Another major weakness for the Mavs is their lack of frontcourt depth. Erick Dampier was a huge disappointment for Dallas last year, but his back up is certainly no better of an option than him. Keith Van Horn is the only real back up for Nowitzki and he can be inconsistent and is injury-prone.
Key Player: Erick Dampier must step up this season in order for Dallas to contend in the Western Conference. He needs to be a physical presence on both ends of the floor and play with the same desire he did during his last season with Golden State.
Season Outlook: The Mavs have taken some hits over the past couple of years, but remain a very talented and dangerous squad. Avery Johnson is a very demanding coach that will get the most out of his players, so don’t expect them to be underachievers. The Mavs will again have one of the better records in the league and should finish in the top half of the Western Conference, although don’t expect them to escape the second round of the playoffs. The team’s young core of Howard, Daniels and Harris need some more big game experience before they can become one of the elite teams in the league again and challenge for the championship.
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Last Season: 45-37 4th place Southwest Division, 8th place Western Conference.
Offseason: Memphis started a tumultuous offseason by drafting Syracuse senior and Big East Player of the Year Hakim Warrick with the 19th pick in the draft. The athletic Warrick may not see a ton of time this year, but has tremendous upside down the road.
After the draft, President of Basketball Operations Jerry West decided to do a little house cleaning. West was apparently tired of the locker room atmosphere that had developed and cleared out the perceived problems. He decided not to match Houston’s offer to Stromile Swift and let him walk. He also thought point guard Earl Watson wasn’t worth the money Denver offered and decided to say “toodle-oo” to Watson as well. In a major, five team trade; the Grizzlies ridded themselves of malcontents James Posey, Jason Williams and Bonzi Wells and brought in Eddie Jones, Bobby Jackson and Raul Lopez.
West capped off the offseason by signing free agent point guard Damon Stoudamire to a multi-year deal.
Strengths: The Grizzlies remain a strong team despite the major overhaul of the team. Pau Gasol is one of the most underrated players in league and can be a major force on the offensive end of the floor. Veterans Bobby Jackson, Damon Stoudamire and Eddie Jones are all a bit long in the tooth, but they all play very hard and have tons of playoff experience. Barring injuries, this will be a very productive backcourt. Mike Miller’s jump shot is deadly and he should be a major scoring threat for the Grizzlies this season. Shane Battier brings an extremely well rounded game and leadership to the court every night. Mike Fratello is an excellent coach that will keep this team competitive all season.
Weaknesses: The lack of a true go-to scoring threat is a major weakness for the Grizzlies. Even though Gasol is a talented scorer, he cannot really create his own shot and doesn’t seem to step up when the game is on the line. The lack of a true presence at center, however, could be the team’s biggest problem this season. Lorenzen Wright and Jake Tsakalidis are both better suited to being role players, but both will need to step up big in order for the Grizz to get back to the playoffs.
Key Player: Lorenzen Wright needs to become a true starting center in order for the Grizzlies to be a force in the West this season. The local product has been a respectable back up and spot starter in the past, but has never reached his potential. If Wright is productive on offense and a force on defense and on the boards, the Grizz just might make it back to the playoffs.
Season Outlook: The Grizzlies may end up having a happier locker room this year, but don’t expect them to make it back to the playoffs. The lack of a quality big man to compliment Gasol will really hurt this team and will be the main reason they are on the outside looking in come playoff time.
5. New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets: Last Season: 18-64 5th place Southwest Division, 15th place Western Conference.
Offseason: The offseason was certainly a rocky one for the young Hornets, but unfortunately for them, it had nothing to do with Basketball. The devastation of Hurricane Katrina has turned the Hornets into vagabonds this season as they relocate to Oklahoma City until the New Orleans Arena is ready to house an NBA team again.
On the basketball side of things, the Hornets had a relatively quite offseason. They resigned forwards Chris Anderson and Bostjan Nachbar, but were not major players in the free agent market. Their only free agent signing was the addition of sharp-shooting Arvydas Macijauskas from Lithuania. Macijauskas will primarily be used as a backup to last year’s first round pick J.R. Smith.
The Hornets, did however, improve themselves via the draft. By selecting Chris Paul with the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft, the Hornets have their franchise point guard for years to come. The speedy and tough Paul could end up being the most talented player to come out of this year’s draft class and will help the Hornets remain close in games with his will to win and ability to hit the big shot.
Strengths: This team is made up of very athletic players that like to get out and run the floor. With Chris Paul running the break, wingmen J.R. Smith and Bostjan Nachbar will be able to thrive in a fast break transition game all season. Jamaal Magloire is a hard worker in the post and has quietly become one of the best centers in the league. After missing most of last season with a broken finger, look for him to come back and have a strong campaign. Veteran power forward P.J. Brown brings toughness, rebounding, defense and leadership to this young team. The nice thing about being the worst team in the Conference last season is that they don’t have to worry about high expectations
Weaknesses: This team is extremely young and inexperienced. The roster consists of only two players (Brown and George Lynch) with more than 5 years experience in the NBA. This inexperience will prevent the Hornets from being competitive most of the season. This roster needs time to adjust to the NBA and to playing with each other. When you add the fact that they will, essentially, be a road team all year, it looks as if the Hornets will be playing from behind a lot this season. They also lack some desperately needed go-to scorers.
Key Player: If the Hornets plan on being respectable this season, Chris Paul is going to have to continue his great play from Wake Forest last season. The lightning quick Paul is a dynamic player that has enough talent to take over games and dominate from the backcourt. That being said, the adjustment to the NBA and an overall lack of quality talent around him may be too much for the young point guard to overcome.
Season Outlook: It looks as if it will be another long season for the Hornets. The uncertainty surrounding their arena situation, the lack of experience and albescence of talent will basically ensure that the Hornets will, again, be playing for the #1 pick in the draft this season. Expect another 60+loss season and last place finish for the Hornets.
