NBA Finals Preview: Miami Heat V. Dallas Mavericks
I preface this by letting you know that I am far from being a certified expert in this field. However, I know basketball. I grew up around it. My father played Division III in San Francisco, and I’ve been raised as a basketball fan since day one. Therefore, you’ll get my views of both teams, the player match-ups, and some analysis… as well as some cynical views that I tend to have about basketball. So sit back, relax, and get comfy. We dive into the 2006 NBA Finals. We are guaranteed to have a first-time Champion as both the Heat and the Mavericks are making their first trip into the Finals.
Miami Heat – Eastern Conference Champions
Regular Season: 52-30, Southeast Division Champions
Postseason: #2 Seed; def. Chicago4-2; def. New Jersey4-1; def. Detroit4-2
Notes: The Heat were an enigma for most of the season. A mid-season coaching change, the injuries of some key players through the season, and a tough first series against the Bulls could have (and in many cases did) been enough for most to write them off. However, this Heat team has gelled and is getting perfect contribution from their veteran core at the right time. The Bulls were a tough match-up for the first four games, but then Miami hit a second gear that hasn’t been matched ever since, as evidenced by the 10-3 mark since game 5 of the first round. Miami has done it a number of ways, but the common denominator is Dwayne Wade. In the 2003 draft class, most remembered for giving us LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony, gave us Dwayne Wade, who has further established himself as (arguably) the best player from that class so far. He has been in the playoffs in each of his first three years, and has established himself as one of the most dominant guards in the game today. He led the Heat in scoring in the regular season with 27.2 points per game, and also contributed 5.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists. The Diesel, Shaquille O’Neal, had a solid regular season with 20 and 9+ rebounds a game, but played only 59 games and missed much of the those games closer to the beginning of the season. They added veterans to the mix once again and shook up a lot of the supporting cast in order to make this title run. Addition Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, Jason Williams, and James Posey all played key roles. But their real value for the Heat was for the postseason run, and they’ve paid off. Antoine Walker has adapted to the role-player par that he plays. Payton still gives you a solid defender off the bench. With Jason Williams you have one of the more underrated point guards in the league, and Posey is an above-average defender. They also dealt with a coaching change, as team president Pat Riley took over for Stan Van Gundy, who although had been performing well, sometimes seemed to be overwhelmed at times with the growing role of coach and playing-time distributor. So when Riley took over on December 12, 2005, the questions were there. Can he keep all the parts happy? Did he force Van Gundy out of the job? It appears as though it was all well-worth it as they made another post-season appearance. And they succeeded where they failed only last season. They closed out the Detroit Pistons and are now in the finals.
Dallas Mavericks – Western Conference Champions
Regular Season: 60-22, 2nd in Southwest Division
Postseason: #4. Seed; def. Memphis4-0; def. San Antonio4-3; def. Phoenix4-2
Notes: With Dallas’ victory against the Phoenix Suns, they arrive at the top of the heap in the tough and competitive Western Conference. The Mavericks didn’t have it very easy, however. How many times has a 60 win team finished second in their division? Never. And with the switch to three divisions in the NBA a few years ago, we were stuck with watching the Mavs given the fourth seed and a meeting with the number 1 seeded Spurs in the second round, although having tied for the best record in the west. Dallas, though, has proven difficult to stop with their combination of timely offense and a newly charged defense, something that could not be associated with the Mavericks last season. The NBA’s Coach of the Year Avery Johnson, in only his first full season as coach after being a mid-season replacement last season, did a great job in not only maintaining the offensive gameplan that the Mavs have been so successful with, but they’ve also been able to go from a mediocre defense to one of the elite units in the NBA, without much significant change. Gone are Steve Nash and Michael Finley, staples of the Mavs for years, but they’ve still got Dirk Nowitzki. And when there’s a Dirk, there’s a way. An MVP candidate from the beginning of the season, his leadership and scoring has paced this team. Only missing one game all year, he scored 26.6 points per game and 9 rebounds. Most importantly, he gives to an inside-outside force. Good scorer inside, can also step back and shoot nearly 41% from three-point range. But he was part of a more balanced attack, one in which five players averaged double figures in points. Jason Terry and Josh Howard both averaged at least 15 points per game during the regular season. But their postseason has been defined by other players along with these guys. Devin Harris has been inserted into the starting lineup, and his young legs and quick play have made him a favorite now of Coach Johnson, after being maligned for much of the season. Jerry Stackhouse is one of the best sixth men in the league and has shown why with his playoff performances. But when they finally got past the mountain that was the San Antonio Spurs, you had to believe that they were the favorite, and pulled through accordingly. They gave the Suns match-up problems and played great defense against the highest scoring team in the NBA. They go from stopping a running team to having to deal with the force in the middle, Shaq, and Flash himself, Dwayne Wade. But Avery Johnson will have them ready…
PLAYER MATCH-UPS
CENTERS
Shaquille O/Neal (Miami) v. DeSegana Diop (Dallas)
Notes: Shaquille O’Neal, even though 34 years old now and obviously slowing down a bit after an illustrious career, is still the most dominant big man in the post the NBA has seen since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He’s got the hunger, and don’t think for a second his ego isn’t big enough for him to want to stick it to the Los Angeles Laker front office so badly that he’ll carry them to the Championship by himself. His game has reached an incredible level during this postseason, when he’s on the floor. Shooting over 61% in the playoffs and averaging 20 points a game has been dominating for him. Most importantly, I believe, he’s the cog that the Miami offense has to run through. You get him his touches, and you might not stop him for the entire game.
DeSagana Diop, meanwhile, has resurrected a career in which he’d been labeled a bust throughout. A former lottery pick, he’s become the defensive bigman that the Mavs require in for postseason play. Even though Erick Dampier is much higher paid, Avery Johnson has had no qualms about playing Diop. You won’t see it in his numbers because he’s only averaging 5.7 rebounds and is not a scoring factor, but he’s done it with his hustle play and the defensive presence that he brings.
I just don’t think that Diop matches up well with Shaq. He’s not gonna be able to stop the much more dominant O’Neal and will not challenge Shaq enough to get him in early foul trouble. You need to do one of those two things in order to have a chance to play effectively against the big man. However, I expect a lot of double teams and rotations by the Mavs, and hack-a-Shaq to be reborn again.
Edge: Miami
POWER FORWARDS\
Udonis Haslem (Miami) v. Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)
Notes: Udonis Haslem has been a revelation for the Heat in the postseason. He seems to be able to make some of the timeliest shots at the right time and keeps them moving with his hustle plays and his defensive presence. He’s already a long way away from the guy who got suspended in the first round for throwing him mouthpiece at an official and has rebounded (pun intended) well. Averaging almost a double-double (9.4 points per game and 7.8 rebounds) has earned him his nearly 30 minute average. He was most effective during the series against the Nets when they couldn’t match-up with him. He’ll have a much harder time against the Mavs.
That will be because if Nowitzki. Already, Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Tim Thomas, and Shawn Marion have not been able to stop the guy. He’s elevated to a new level with his play in the postseason. Taking over games at a more consistent basis, he’s becoming the complete player that everyone wanted of him. He’s not an elite defender, but often does not need to be. And he’s more than adequate in the team scheme that Avery Johnson preaches. Offensively, he’s got unlimited range. You leave him open, he’ll hurt you. You put a hand in his face and he’ll shoot over you with his long reach. The ultimate match-up problem, he’s a guard trapped in a power forward’s body.
I think that the Heat will do more to platoon defensively against Nowitzki, much as I believe the Mavs will do the same with O’Neal. You could see Posey shadowing him as he’s probably a better defender than Haslem.
Edge: Dallas
SMALL FORWARDS
Antoine Walker (Miami) v. Josh Howard (Dallas)
Notes: It’s been quite the transition for Walker, who went from being the first or second option in an offensive scheme and a perennial All-Star, to the ultimate roll player for the Heat. It took him the whole regular season and even the beginning of the playoffs to figure it out, but he’s finally settled into the role masterfully. The key is his changed play. He’s hitting the open shots, not settling for jump shots as well. A guy who’s known for taking jumpers, he’s putting the ball on the floor and challenging the defenders, taking the open lanes when they are available. He can still knock down the three effectively when open.
Josh Howard, meanwhile, could be deemed the most important player for the Mavericks. Only the third leading scorer during the regular season, Howard needs to be involved to ensure a Maverick win. Consider that when Howard scores 20 points or more in a game this season, including the playoffs, the Mavs are undefeated. He’s another tough guard. Versatile to punish the bigger small forwards, he’s big enough to get those smaller guys on the post and punish.
Against the Pistons, walker was the scoring option when Wade or Shaq were not scoring. Walker, however, will not be able to defensively take Howard. In fact, I believe that if Miami wants to have the best chance to win that they should start James Posey instead. If Walker starts, he’s gonna have to make Howard play 24 seconds on the defensive side and do his best to stay in front of him defensively. Howard, meanwhile, will have to trust his big-men inside to help if he lets Walker release inside. Or he will have to close out quickly to deny open shots to Walker. Howard might be the help defense in case the Mavs double Shaq, so Walker might get the opportunity early in the series to hit some big shots.
Edge: Dallas
SHOOTING GUARDS
Dwayne Wade (Miami) v. Jason Terry (Dallas)
Notes: My vote for breakout player in the playoffs is Wade. He shot better than 60 percent against the Pistons and has definitely established himself as the top option for the Heat. No disrespect to the Diesel, but Wade has taken over games and seems to rise to the occasion where many others have failed miserably. Wade’s averaging 26 points per game, but he’s been the cog that makes sure the offense is running efficiently. If he’s not cycling the ball to Shaq, he’s running effective pick-and-rolls with his teammates. He averages 6 assists a game while also scoring for the team. And a lot of his shots are big-time.
Jason Terry has the ability to hit a big shot from anywhere on the floor at anytime. His true danger is in the fact that while Wade is one of the quickest off-the-dribble 2 guards in the NBA, Terry could very well be one of the few guards who can match that quickness, or come close enough to it. Wade’s self-assessment of his defense is that he needs to work on it, and Terry will definitely force him to work on that end. If he can throw Wade off his game enough to force him to expend a little more energy on the defensive side, it could adversely affect Wade’s performance on the offensive side of the floor.
In the end, I have to say that Terry will have more trouble with Wade than vice-versa. Stackhouse could be used for size against Wade more often, but he’s not nearly quick enough for that defensive assignment. Terry will have to score consistently and stay out of foul trouble in order for the Mavs to win.
Edge: Miami
POINT GUARDS
Jason Williams (Miami) v. Devin Harris (Dallas)
Notes: Williams, when the postseason began he was many experts’ choice as the Heat’s true X-factor. They needed his ball-handling and his shooting to be consistent in the playoffs. The Heat have achieved just that out of Williams. He’s been a solidifying presence, although you can once again look at the stats and get a different view of the effect. It’s not a stats kind of issue with him. With Williams, they have a guy who can bring the ball down the court effectively and feed the post, run the pick-and-roll, and be counted on not to turn the ball over. I still believe that Williams owes his entire career after Sacramento to Hubie Brown. Without that settling force, he could very well be out of the league right now.
Devin Harris has been a part of the PG debate in Dallas for the entire season, but has taken a hold of the job in the playoffs. He’s handled it well, showing a knack for hitting some big shots as well as fresh legs and a quickness that is hard to match on the court with the ball. They look to him mostly for that, a mismatch with some of the guards in the playoffs. He matched up well against Tony Parker in the San Antonio series and was hard to keep up with, even for the faster Suns. He’s averaged double-digits in scoring through the playoffs and has been the extra contributor you usually need in the playoffs to compliment the leaders.
As even as this is, it’ll come down to Williams’ ability to guard Harris. Harris is tricky, quick, and could leave Williams in his dust as he scorches him for points. But if Williams can limit his drives and open shots and force the ball out of his hands, Harris often becomes uninterested and plays himself out of games. Williams’ will also have continue the shooting and aggressiveness on offense that he showed during the latter games of that Detroit series.
Edge:Dallas
BENCH
Key Players: James Posey, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning (Miami) v. Marquise Daniels, Erick Dampier, Jerry Stackhouse (Dallas)
Notes: The Miami bench is loaded with veterans that have amassed a lot of postseason games and no championships. Mourning and Payton may very well be the most hungry, but they also picked up Shandon Anderson in the mid-season from the Rockets, and he’s NBA Finals experienced (with the Utah Jazz in the late 90’s.) Mourning has been playing with a youthful desire that you rarely see anymore. Usually, when Shaq sits you can take a breather. But Mourning does not allow for that. Posey is the best defender for the Heat, while Payton can still be effective as a stopper and a spot-up shooter.
Stackhouse is one of the best sixth men in the league, as I previously alluded to. His combination of scoring and veteran leadership has been key for a mostly younger team. Dampier’s role will be key as they’ll use all their fouls against Shaq to limit his effectiveness inside. Daniels is the fourth guard in the rotation but will be important to spell Terry or Harris from the ball-handling duties. He started the season as the starter but has since been displaced in the playoffs by Harris.
Edge: Miami (slightly)
COACHES
Pat Riley (Miami) v. Avery Johnson (Dallas)
Notes: Both have won Championships (Riley as a coach, Johnson as a player) and know what it takes to achieve that success. The Mavs have completely embraced and accepted Johnson, which was tougher than expected considering that two years ago he was a teammate and now he’s the top guy on the bench. But he’s been able to have the Mavs clicking on all cylinders, including the defensive side, a task that had been long considered impossible by most NBA experts around the nation. There is no dissention in that locker room as he’s been able to equally balance the playing minutes.
On the opposite end, Pat Riley has also been able to juggle the act. There are vets on this team who are used to playing way more minutes per game and receiving more touches per game. Came in during the middle of the season where the expectation pre-season were Championship or bust. Every year the Heat have been able to rise higher and higher under Stan Van Gundy, but it was Riley who was able to take this team to the Finals. He’s also the architect of this team, signing and trading for some solid players who can contribute to their cause. It’s also of note that Riley has also taken the Lakers and the Knicks to this level and winning championships with the Lakers. Experience is a factor and Riley knows what it takes.
Edge: Miami
BOLD PREDICTION
Mavericks in 7
Shaq’s desire to stick it to the Lakers is worth a win or two by-itself, but I think in the end the Mavs can run the older Heat more consistently than the Nets could. We saw the effects a running offense had on them in game 1 of that series and I believe that the Mavs could be more effective. They play good enough defense to where they can allow Shaquille O’Neal his points and shut down the role-players. Dallas will deny the entry pass as well as they can and I have to believe that although Avery Johnson isn’t a fan of the double-team that they’ll have to use it against Shaq at one point. Miami will need their secondary tier players to hit their shots when they have them, and dominate the hustle stats (rebounds, second chance points) to have a shot. I think that they go back and forth, but home-court gives the Mavs the slight edge in a game 7 situation.
