NFL Predictions: NFCI

I have been watching the NFL ever since the introduction of free agency in the early 90’s. But up until this time, I have yet to witness an off-season that has created this much anticipation for an NFL season. This year has included an array of trades, acquisitions, arrests, and draft picks that have allotted to more buzz than a Jessica Simpson-Dukes of Hazard poster on Richter’sIsland. Buzz is often generated by the potential for success. Potential is often determined on a player and/or team’s ability to do things despite whether or not they have proven themselves capable of that ability. Potential is what makes the NFL off-season the best of any sport in the world. Analyst, players, coaches, and fans alike all can look at a sheet of paper and use their own methods to add up previous stats, 40 yard times, winning histories, and college performances to decipher between whether or not their respective teams will finish on top of the division or on the bottom. Needless to say, anybody can contort and rearrange paper attributes into winning seasons, but rarely do paper elements alone add up to success on the field. However, a careful analysis that looks primarily at proven abilities, previous success, and leaves room for error, is more of an indicator on how a team will perform than trying to decipher does this new Left Guard work well with that Left Tackle, and will this Wideout work well with this new Quarterback. This is why I think season projections are better left to the pros who observe each team with a fine tooth comb, and who are undoubtedly, perfect in all of their predictions. Thus I proclaim that I have the “potential” to perform such great surveillance, and I promise there will be a surprise here or there.

Moving from left to right on your dial, let’s start out in the NFC, with the West Coast:

NFC West:

1. Seattle
   Seahawks – “Matt Hassleback hands off to Shaun Alexander,” is what everyone in

   Seattle
   should get used to hearing once again this season. Just simply handing the ball off to this man 300 times guarantees a playoff birth and division title in this weak division. The loss of Hutchison is substantial, but enough to stop Alexander from scoring touchdowns. The loss of this all-pro left guard might hurt the running game by a few tenths of a yard per carry (which is meaningful, but not terribly critical considering Alexander’s high yards/carry average), but it will not hurt his getting into the end zone, as Walter Jones (who is better than Hutchison) will undoubtedly anchor that left edge and will make sure his new guard-companion is on the same page. The addition of Burleson gives the Seahawks a better deep ball threat than they had last year, which makes their possession style receivers much more efficient in the Seahawk West Coast Offense. Their division is at bestâÂ?¦horrible, and other than the possible sleeper having a good season, they have little to no competition in the AFC West, and that is why I pick them to come out as the outright champs of this division.

3. St. Louis
   Rams – Two words: Holt and Bruce. I mean how many years can these guys keep doing this? Granted, last year they had their injury problems, which is the result of age, but when you watch these guys run routes, both short and deep, you must ask yourself, “Is a better tandem of route runners in the league? As long as these guys are healthy, the Rams will be able to throw the ball. However, their new coach is very insistent about the return of the running game to

   St. Louis, which means that Stephen Jackson is going to the difference maker on this teamâÂ?¦or will he? The running game is actually going to fall on the hands of the offensive line and scheme that Coach Linehan has installed. While running behind Orlando Pace presents itself as a viable option, the rest of the line is not so inviting as it is the same line that left the Rams playing with their 3^rd string quarterback and was in the bottom tier of the running game last year. But Linehan has a history of having efficient running teams, and so I believe that Jacksonwill have a breakout year i St.Louis. While that will make the Rams offense a formidable weapon, their defense is still lacking. Losing Strong Safety, Adam Archuleta, was not a smart move for a defense that was not any good in the first place. It is going to be the defense’s play that determines whether or not the Rams finish 2^nd or last in their division. Clearly, I’m betting their defense will do okay by predicting them to finish in second, but before you go drafting the Rams defense in your fantasy leagues, remember I’ve still got 2 other defenses in this division to critique.

5. Arizona
   Cardinals – I actually like the Arizona Cardinals this yearâÂ?¦ on offense. If Kurt Warner can return to anything like his two MVP “likish” seasons, the Cards could very well compete with anybodyâÂ?¦offensively. With Boldin, Fitzgerald, and James at a healthy Warner’s disposal, their team is ready to explodeâÂ?¦offensively. Unfortunately, it is going to take sometime to make the offense a juggernaut, which means that they are going to have their great games this season, and their bad games this season. But next year, the Cards’ “O” will be on track, assuming Warner is still at the helm. The defense is not worthy of mentioning. Sorry, Bertrand Berry, but at least you will be a winner on my fantasy football team.

   San Francisco
   49ers – The 49ers are horrible! I shouldn’t have to say much about it. The acquisition of Vernon Davis is going to give former first round pick, Alex Smith, a great dump-off target and make his life in the pocket a lot easier, but I am not sold on him. I never thought he should have been the first pick of the draft, and I still don’t think he is even worthy of being a starting quarterback in the NFL. He is not going to have a good season this year, or next year, and not in any year until the talent around him is better than he is. Also, the 49ers are never going to get any better until they start building some type of defense in the Bay, and by letting Julian Peterson get away this past season, it looks like they just are not trying to do that right now.

   NFC South

9. Carolina
   Panthers – In a very tough division, I am picking the Panthers because I think they made one of the best acquisitions in football history. The Panthers have a WR in Steve Smith who is capable of being the best wideout in the league even when he has no other offensive threats on his team and everybody knows that the ball is going to him. It was not until the NFC championship game that

11. Seattle
    finally watched the film and decided to quadruple team him, and he still scored a touchdown while returning a punt. But it is the quadruple team where the key acquisition comes in. By adding Keyshawn Johnson, the Panthers not only got a great talent at wideout, but they have the best compliment wide receiver in the world for Steve Smith. Steve Smith is a #1 WR who can go deep down the sideline, run the skinny post, and catch the tough pass over the middle. But where a WR like himself is hurt is when he goes over the middle and every one on defense is looking for him, or when the same thing occurs on the sideline. But having Johnson on his team now makes defenses have to account for somebody other than Keyshawn coming over the middle or catching the comeback on the sideline, because Keyshawn is the best player in the league at running intermediate routes. Not to take anything away from Keyshawn’s vertical ability to catch the ball, but he is the best #2 WR in the league because of what he can do between the hashes and in short range isolation. He can still run a nice fade too, as well as the skinny post. His touchdown production is really low for somebody who has his number of receptions, but he gets it done in the middle of the field, and there is no knocking that. The Panther’s defense, however, is its biggest weapon. They undoubtedly have the best defensive line in the league, when it’s healthy. Jenkins and Peppers anchor a line that is very athletic, and very capable of doing many different things. The Panthers dominate on defense because these guys can get it done every game. And this team will edge out a tough NFC South because their d-line will wear out the opposition.

13. Atlanta
    Falcons – Many prognoses have the Buccaneers in this spot, but I am not sure they can repeat the success they had last year. The Falcons will be a much better team this year because there defense is going to get back on track. With Deangelo Hall’s emergence last season, they have a lock down corner who can match up with just about anybody in the league. The addition of John Abraham will also intensify the pass defense and cause a lot of havoc that the dirty-birds did not have last season. Edgereton Harwell is coming back from injury and that should sure up a defense that struggled against the run last season. Now you all want to know about Michael Vick, huh? I cannot say that I expect his passer’s rating to get any better, but who cares? If he can just go back to being the guy who got the Falcons to an NFC championship game, and beat Favre at Lambeau field, then he will be just fine. If he can get it out his head that he has to make a play every down, then he will be an MVP candidate all over again. Vick is at his best when he is completing 50% of his passes while staying in the pocket, and then surprising the defense on a big run on a completely random play. Just do that Vick, and you’ll be alright.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – While Chris Sims has a lot of the tools that a QB is supposed to have, I just cannot seem to vision him standing up under all the pressure he is going to see from Carolina’s and Atlanta’s line. I do not think that the problems on the Buc’s O-line have been corrected, and so Sim’s and his offense will be tested. While I am expecting both Galloway and Carnell Williams to have big years, its unlikely Sims will be of much help to them in doing that. The Buc’s D is getting older and older by the day, and I think injuries will come into play when we are talking about the ineffectiveness of the

    Tampa
    2 this season.

17. New Orleans
    Saints – Because I want to give pleasant news to the people of

    Louisiana
    , let me start of saying that I do have some good newsâÂ?¦..I just saved hundreds of dollars by switching to Geico. Other than that, you all do not have much to look forward to other than Reggie Bush. And if you expect Reggie Bush to be Gail Sayers or Barry Sanders, then you still we be in utter disappointment. Don’t get me wrong, Bush is going to be a great player but he is not going to touch the ball that many times. He is going to make big plays on the outsides, and if they can get him mismatched in the flat he will make 3-4 receptions a game, and maybe spring one of those into a big play. But that is all Bush is going to do this season, he is going to be the big play guy, like in the resemblance of what Azzir-Hakim was to the Rams Superbowl squads, Brandon Stokley to the Ravens Superbowl team, Desmond Howard to Packers championship roster, and Alvin Harper to America’s team. The only problem is, there won’t be a trip to the Superbowl for this year’s Saints.

19. NFC North

1. Chicago
   Bears – They had the best defense in the league last year, hands down. They won 11 games with one of the worst 3 starting quarterbacks in the league last year. The entire defense is returning, so I do not expect a drop on that side of the ball. And despite an overrated MLB, who makes very few plays against the past and sheds O-line blocks poorly, the defense will be strong again due to that great pass rush and some of the best cover 2 corners since the original

3. Tampa
   2 defense. On the offensive side of the ball, Rex Grossman should account for at least 2-3 more points per game, but the real question is whether or not he will cost them any points. With very little proven experience on his resume, Grossman might be likely to make some very “rookie-ish” mistakes this year. But if a healthy Cedric Benson is available, he can add a lot of explosiveness to a Thomas Jones assisted running attack. The bears will be in the playoffs again, I can’t speak much more on that though. Not because I don’t want to, but because that’s all they will do.

5. Green Bay
   Packers – You think I have them a little high, don’t you? Well, so do I, but the division sucks, so let’s be honest, anything after first in this division represents complete and utter disappointment. However, the Packers will be a formidable opponent. They will be much better in the rushing game this year, either with the return of Ahman Green, or the undoubted improvement of Sam Gado. Donald Driver is more than capable of taking the role of a #1 wide receiver, even if that is not quite his natural function in football. The defense is horrid, but Mike McCarthy knows that stopping the run is essential and that is why he is making a huge emphasis on that this year, and I guarantee the Packers will be in more shootouts than rushing attacks this year. People seem to take offense when players overrate the ability of their teams, and why that is, I don’t know. But when Favre said this year’s Packers’ team was the best he has ever been on, I saw that as a sign of confidence. Granted, I know that’s complete bull****, but it doesn’t mean that the statement had no meaning. By saying that, the Packers’ QB illustrated that he still has faith in his team and that he is backing a contender. I expect a pro-bowl season from Favre, and whether or not you believe that’s possible, you must admit, he would not come back this year if he went out with 35 TD passes last Fall. He wants to leave the game with people saying, “That’s why he is one of the best ever!” Do your thing, Brett. Do your thing.

   Detroit
   Lions – This is a very talented offensive team. Granted and unfortunately, I do not think neither Mike Williams nor Charles Rogers will ever live up their billing because of a seemingly lack of focus and/or ability to even care about making themselves better. However, their mentality aside, they can still be great #2 receivers no matter how much they try because their athletic ability and size are just too much for smaller corners. And I guarantee you this, Mike Martz will not put anybody on the field if he is not ready to play hard and smart in his electrifying offensive system. Expect Kevin Jones to have a 1300 yard season. Despite Martz’s tendency to abandon the run, he does like to mix into his scheme to benefit the pass, and his running backs always have high average yards per carry. The Lion’s defense still has yet to get better, mainly in part because of Matt Millen’s inability to draft defensive players up until this year. The defensive line is their forte though, and if your line is the best part of any one of your units, it stands a good chance to make your unit play better than its billing. Unfortunately, Detroit’s bill is very low.

   Minnesota
   Vikings – Originally, I had planned to give this division to this team. They had a new coach, new life, a new #1 WR, and a defense that was likely to gel after being fairly new last season. Unfortunately, Koren Robinson messed up a lot of that, and Chad Greenway was going to be an important part of the linebacking unit but is now lost for the season due to injury. But you would not think that 2 players could so dramatically drop a mediocre team for 1^st to last, but it is the case because in losing their number on wideout, the Vikings have no one to throw to anymore. They are left with an unheralded 2^nd year Wide Receiver that did little last year to prove he could play, but he surely will not be enough. Their defense was average, but to stay ahead of the athletic interest rate, you have to improve, and they didn’t. Also, I doubt Brad Johnson can go the distance, but even if he does, he has very little to throw to.

7. NFC East

1. Washington
   Redskins – It is really hard for me to label the Redskins as the best team in the best division in football, but I will hand them the division title solely because they have the most talent. With those 3 WR’s, Cooley at TE, and Portis at RB, they have the best Singleback formation in the league. If Mark Brunell can play as well as he did last year, the Redskins will be able to get the ball to their skill players and have a dominating offense. Their defense is just as good. Springs getting hurt yesterday was a blow, but assuming he makes it back, they have a great secondary with him, Archuleta, Taylor and Rogers. Their linebackers are also very big guys who will stuff the run in a manner that only Joe Gibbs is going to say is not good enough.

   Philadelphia
   Eagles – Sorry, New Yorkers, but the Giants are taking a backseat to the Eagles once again. Philadelphia, despite losing T.O., is going to return to the playoffs this season. Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is the same team that went through the playoffs with out T.O., that went to 3 NFC Championships without T.O., and that has more games than all the other teams over the past 4 seasons prior to T.O.’s arrival. Yes, I do not like the look of the running game, but they seem committed to it, and the mere presence of a running game is enough to make Donovan McNabb a threat to pass. The defense will surely live up to is billing this year. The addition of Darren Howard makes the Eagles one of the best and deepest defensive lines in football. Lito Sheppard is healthy and ready to return to his all-pro form, so expect Jim Johnson to up the sack total from last year, and make the Eagles a contender once again.

   Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are a great team on paper, and the only way they will translate that to the field is if their offensive line plays much better than it did last year. They cut their projected starting right tackle, which only leads me to believe that Drew Bledsoe will be in panic mode all season. But with the passing options he has, I hope that the Cowboys have a good blitz-pick up offense in place that allows for Bledsoe to hit Witten and Glenn on quick throws. Unfortunately, Owens is not a quick throw type player. He is probably the best WR in the league, but he certainly is not noted for his quickness and short yardage separation. Owens will not have nearly the impact in Dallas that he had in Philly 2 seasons ago simply because he will not get the receptions. But T.O. will change the demeanor of the defenses facing the Cowboys, thus making those around him much better. The Cowboys defense is a big question mark for me. Their pass defense is very subject to the long ball. Terrence Newman is not the player everyone thought he would be, and Roy Williams coverage skills are not even average. I do think the Cowboys will make the playoffs, but if the Offensive line gives up 50 sacks again, well you can count the loss of yardage on their season, too.

   New York
   Giants – I don’t think too much about this last place finish, but they are the least prepared team in this division, and the team with more questions than talent. They still could make the playoffs and finish as high as 2^nd or 3^rd in this division, but they won’t. Why? Tiki Barber is getting old, and even if he is able to perform at a high level, we cannot expect him to duplicate last season. I know I have no real justifiable reason to say such a thing, but no one has ever predicted that first season a running back goes from stardom to mediocrity; so why can’t I be the first? Eli is going to be Eli and not Peyton. He might get to his brother’s status one day, but he is going to have to travel the road less traveled because it seems that his fundamentals are still lacking. Plaxico Burress will help in his development as his skill set allows for Eli to just put the ball anywhere near him and count on him bringing it in. The Giants defense has a lot of questions and it is all because of their secondary. They went out and made some Madden-like upgrades, but is Sam Madison really at an age where he can anchor a defensive secondary yet again? I do love the Giants front 7 though. With the two ends, they will never have a hard time putting pressure on the QB, and thus it will open up the middle for the DT’s and linebackers to come up the gut. The difference between the Giants finishing first and last in this division is if the secondary can be dominate. I don’t see it happening, but maybe they will prove me wrong.