New Fall TV Network Ratings: Which Shows Will Win the Ratings War?
TIME-SLOT BATTLES
CSI vs. Grey’s Anatomy vs House
Time slot: Thursday at 9 p.m. (all times Eastern)
Breakdown: This time slot will be the most hotly contested of the fall. CSI has shown no signs of slowing down, despite the fact that CSI: Miami and CSI:New York are delivering the same type of show on different nights for CBS. ABC is taking a risk by moving Grey’s Anatomy from its comfortable Sunday night slot after Desperate Housewives. House is also graduating from its Tuesday night spot after American Idol. House has some loyal fans, but it won’t pick up many new fans against CSI and Grey’s Anatomy.
Prediction: All three shows should do well, with CSI holding onto the No. 1 overall spot in the ratings. Grey’s should finish second in the time slot, followed by House.
Cold Case vs. Desperate Housewives vs. Sunday Night Football
Time slot: Sundays at 9 p.m.
Breakdown:Desperate Housewives went into a bit of a sophomore slump, both in quality and in the ratings. Still, its fans will stick around (or return) if the start of the third season looks good. Cold Case is a strong crime drama that often gets overlooked because of the high profile of the three CSI shows. The good news for both Housewives and Cold Case is that NBC is devoting the evening to Sunday Night Football. Non-football fans who used to watch Law & Order: Criminal Intent can switch to Cold Case or Housewives.
Prediction:Desperate Housewives wins the battle, while Cold Case is a strong runner-up. Sunday Night Football will finish third, because football fans have been watching games all day and won’t be glued to the Sunday matchup unless their favorite team is playing.
Survivor vs. My Name Is Earl & The Office vs Ugly Betty vs. Smallville
Time slot: Thursday at 8 p.m.
Breakdown:CBS made waves by dividing the Survivor: Cook Islands contestants by race. From a ratings standpoint, it’s a great idea. If the gimmick draws more fans to the premiere, it should mean big numbers for the finale as well. Sometimes reality fans will watch the beginning and end of a series, while checking out another show during that time slot. This is good news for Earl and Office. Both shows have gained fans and critical appeal. They should bring NBC better ratings than Joey did in the same time slot last year. We are not living in the age of the sitcom, so any network should be happy to have two decent ones.
Outlook: Ugly Betty sounds like a good show, with America Ferrera starring as a fish out of water at a fashion magazine. However, the show’s horrible title isn’t doing it any favors. Viewers like to watch good-looking people, so fans may turn away from Betty and toward Smallville on The CW.
Friday Night Lights vs. Dancing with the Stars
Time slot: Tuesday at 8 p.m.
Breakdown: NBC is putting a lot of promotion behind Friday Night Lights, the Texas football drama that has already succeeded as a book and a movie. The question is, can Dancing With The Stars remain strong? The answer is probably yes. With American Idol not starting until January, Dancing may get its best ratings ever this fall. That’s not good news for Lights. Outlook: Even if the ratings start slow, NBC must not move Lights to a different time slot. If that happens, new fans won’t tune in because they won’t know the characters. If this show is as good as the critics say it is, NBC has to stay committed to it.
SAME-SHOW BATTLES
Kidnapped vs. Vanished
Kidnapped (Wednesday at 10 p.m. on NBC) is about a couple whose 15-year-old son is abducted. For months, we’ve been hearing promos with the kidnapper’s chilling words on the telephone: “We have your son.” The couple tries to determine who committed the crime, as wel as whom to trust in the effort to get him back.
Vanished (Mondays at 9 on Fox) is about the disappearance of a Georgia senator’s wife. In addition to exploring the effect this has on her family, the show also reveals that her disappearance may be part of a larger conspiracy.
Outlook: Kidnapped should do well. It’s getting good promotion, and it’s in a 10 p.m. time slot. Vanished is doing a smart thing by having full episodes available on its website. However, it will run into the usual Fox problem when the baseball playoffs knock it out of its time slot for several weeks. So when Vanished has vanished, Kidnapped will be going strong.
30 Rock vs. Saturday Night Live vs. Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip
Breakdown: Yes, all of these shows are on NBC. Even the network’s own promos are making fun of this, with Alec Baldwin wondering which show he’s on. Baldwin is on the comedy, 30 Rock (Wednesdays at 8). Tina Fey and Rachel Dratch are jumping from the real SNL to the comedy about an SNL-type show. We’ll see if Fey is as funny as an actress as she is reading the news on SNL. Then there is the drama about an SNL-type show, Studio 60 (Mondays at 10). This is the biggest thing NBC has going this fall, with Matthew Perry, Amanda Peet, Bradley Whitford and writer Aaron Sorkin (The West Wing) on board. NBC hopes it can finally get a big hit drama, like its rivals at ABC (Lost, Desperate Housewives) and CBS (all three CSI shows and Without a Trace). Also, will anyone care about the real Saturday Night Live (11:30 p.m.) after watching these shows?
Outlook: NBC seems to care more about Studio 60 than 30 Rock. Plus, it’s difficult for a new comedy like 30 Rock to lead off the night for a network. Studio 60 should survive its first season, but 30 Rock probably won’t make it.
