NewSportsWriters.com College Football Preview
Yes we do and here it is (Note: I am not ranking the teams in the order in which I think are the best, but based on what I feel their rankings will be at the end of the season. Basically, this is where I see the teams finishing due to their schedules and win loss record. I also have included my predicted finish for each team going in to their bowl game):
1. Notre Dame – As much as it pains me to put them here, let’s face it, when the Irish are good it’s great for college football. The defense is shaky, especially at the corners, but with Charlie Weiss and Brady Quinn running the offense they’ll easily outscore most of their opponents. Their schedule for the month of September is somewhat brutal, but their two toughest opponents, Michigan and Penn State, come to South Bend this year. Look for the Irish to survive September unscathed and head to Southern California on November 25th 11-0, where revenge should take over sending them to the Championship game. Predicted finish: 12-0
2. Ohio State – They too have issues on defense having lost 8 starters in which six were NFL draft picks and three were selected in the first round. With early road games at Texas and Iowa and an inexperienced defense it’s hard for me to put the Buckeyes this high, but Troy Smith is just as legitimate a Heisman candidate as Quinn and Andrian Peterson, and may very well be the best player in college football this season (i.e. what Vince Young was for Texas last season). It looks to be a rematch of last year’s Fiesta Bowl in the title game where the Irish will have a chance for revenge for the second game in a row. Predicted finish: 11-1
3. Miami – An early loss to the Seminoles will again haunt the Canes all season long, and prevent them from playing in the national title game. An 11-1 finish should be enough to silence the Coker doubters for at least another season, that is of course assuming that they don’t get embarrassed in their bowl game again at the tune of 40-3. Predicted finish: 11-1
4. Texas – The Longhorns are certainly talented enough to repeat as national champions, but with a slightly improved Big 12 at the top and a huge question mark at quarterback the chances aren’t likely. They do return 6 starters on offense and 7 on defense, but lost the best player on both sides of the ball from last year, which includes the nation’s best player in Vince Young. The defense and the position players are more than capable of a repeat, but I see no Matt Maulk in either Jevan Snead or Colt McCoy. A Big 12 repeat is more than possible, but with Ohio State coming to Austin early on, a repeat as national champion is not. Predicted finish: 11-2
5. Florida State – They should start the season with a win at Miami, but only because the Hurricanes will be without 4 key starters due to suspension. But that will be enough for the Seminoles to get the huge road win and put them right in the national title hunt, but a rematch with the Canes in the conference championship game could very well take them out of it. With seven new starters on defense running the table will tough, but with their explosive offense is very possible nonetheless. Predicted finish: 11-1
6. Louisville – (Remember, this is where I see them finishing. I in know way think Louisville is the sixth best team in the country) The Cardinals again have the fire power on offense with quarterback Brian Brohm and Heisman candidate running back Michael Bush to compete with anyone in the country, and again their schedule sets up nicely to run the table. They will, however, slip as usual, but along the way should end West Virginia’s chances at an undefeated season as well. A Big East title is very likely, but a national title, however, is not. Predicted finish: 11-1
7. LSU – It’s hard to bet against the talent they’ve accumulated down on the Bayou, but it isn’t hard, however, to bet against this season’s schedule. With games at Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas and non-conference games against Arizona and Fresno State if they run the table this year they will have certainly earned their spot in the title game. Problem is with question marks at running back and along the offensive line I just can’t see that happening. An SEC title, however, I can see (what can I say I believe in JaMarcus) Predicted finish: 10-3
8. Oklahoma – Even without Rhett Bomar Oklahoma still may be the best team in the sorry Big 12. Texas is no longer the guaranteed victory it once was now that they’ve hoisted the Sears trophy, and Nebraska seems to be headed back to the Big Red of old. Luckily Nebraska isn’t on this year’s schedule, and neither are UCLA and TCU. Washington and Oregon (and UAB is no pushover), however, are and if the Sooners plan to run the table then the Heisman trophy debate will certainly be short lived. Peterson is great (as well as the defense), but with 11 men in the box begging Paul Thompson to throw I just don’t see it happening. Predicted finish: 10-2
9. West Virginia – They survived a near full on collapse in last year’s Sugar Bowl against Georgia and now have people talking national championship in not only Morgantown, but nationwide. With the explosive backfield of Pat White and Steve Slaton the Mountaineers will certainly be fun to watch and the only team really standing in their way of a perfect season is Louisville. A team I personally think will beat them due to West Virginia’s weaknesses in the secondary and in the passing game, and mainly due to the fact that the game is in Louisville. Predicted finish: 10-2
10. Michigan – Unlike most I really like this Michigan team and honestly feel it has what it takes to contend for a national title this season. Seven starters are back on offense, including RB Michael Hart and QB Chad Henne, but the bigger story may be the defense where they return eight starters and are poised to return to the dominance of Michigan teams past. The schedule is brutal though with games at Notre Dame, at Penn State and at Ohio State. It’s unlikely they’ll run the table, but a win at Columbus is a must to get all the doubters off of head coach Lloyd Carr’s back. Predicted finish: 10-2
11. Tennessee – The Vols return 5 starters on defense and 7 on offense, but their most important return may just be to the coaching booth. David Cutcliffe returns to Knoxville as the OC and should be the perfect addition to help struggling junior quarterback Erik Ainge. It will also help that Ainge will no longer be looking over his shoulder. They did lose some key starters on both sides of the ball, but all the tough games are at home (Cal, Florida, LSU, except of course for defending champion Georgia) so a bounce back looks likely on old Rocky Top. Predicted finish: 10-3
12. Boise State – (again not the twelfth best team) This squad returns nine starters on both sides of the ball and have the schedule to make another serious run at 12-0. They got a little bit in over their heads a year ago with games at Georgia and Oregon State, but this year there is no Georgia on the schedule and a lesser Oregon State team has to travel to Boise. Their toughest game may be against fellow non BCS’er Utah, and the winner of that may just pull off the perfect season. Predicted finish: 11-1
13. Iowa – Drew Tate returns for his senior season with only one thing on his mind: a Big Ten title send off. A Big Ten title, however, could easily lead to a chance at a national title. Known for their early season struggles, the Hawkeyes should be 4-0 going in to their game at home against Ohio State. Other than Ohio State the only realistic challenge on the schedule is a game at Michigan. Win those two and you’re likely playing for it all, lose them and you’re back in the Outback Bowl. The latter seems more likely. Predicted finish: 10-2
14. California – They didn’t lose much from their 8-4 team of a year ago, but with non-conference games at Tennessee and against Minnesota their schedule looks to be a little tougher this time around. Will this finally be the year they get over the hump and dethrone USC as the champ in the PAC-10? Probably not, but a win in L.A. would certainly go a long way towards that. Predicted finish: (Cal 37, USC 35) 9-3
15. Nebraska – Big Red is back, and if you don’t believe that then maybe you’ll at least believe the black shirts are back. Back so much that I feel an early upset of USC isn’t that much out of the question. The Cornhuskers will field one of their best defenses in years and again will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big 12. The Big 12 North title should be a cakewalk, but is Nebraska ready to step it up and retake the reigns of the entire conference? Probably not just yet, but there is no doubt in my mind that head coach Bill Callahan has them headed in the right direction (a direction I thought impossible when he showed up to Lincoln with his West Coast offense two years ago). Predicted finish: 10-3
16. USC – Surprised? So was I a little, but what can I say I just don’t believe in people with the last name of Booty (it may be more wishful thinking than anything, but please do me a favor and read on). There may be no team more talented than the Trojans again this year, but you just don’t lose players like Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and LenDale White and expect it not to be noticed (ask Auburn). The talent is stacked, but unproven and this is the year their shortcomings on defense are finally exposed in the form of losses (that’s right plural). They may be talented enough to still win the soft ass PAC 10, but they also may be inexperienced enough to lose their final three games (Cal, ND, at UCLA). Watch out for Arkansas in game 1 as well. Predicted finish: 9-3
17. Utah – 16 of 22 starters return for the Utes, but question marks at running back and a possible controversy at quarterback may stand in the way of this team’s quest for a perfect season. If Utah can get past UCLA on the road in their first game of the season (not likely), then an undefeated season may be within reach. Their remaining tough games against Boise State and TCU are at home, and Utah will certainly step on the field as the favorite in both. Prediction: 10-2
18. South Carolina – I have this team here for two simple reasons, head coach Steve Spurrier and wide receiver Sidney Rice. Spurrier is still the best coach in the SEC (now that Saban is gone), and Rice (a man most of you probably have never heard of) is by far the best receiver in the SEC and might just be the best in the country (and he’s only a sophomore). I like their schedule as they get Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, and Arkansas at home (look for them to split those four), and their tough road games (Florida and Clemson) due to rivalry reasons are believe it or not very winnable. Look for the Gamecocks to be the surprise story of the SEC, again, and maybe even contend for the East title. Predicted finish: 9-3
19. Clemson – Will this finally be the year that Bowden and company get over the hump in the ACC and seriously compete for the ACC title? This is as good a year as ever, but this squad still looks to be a year away (it seems like we’re always saying this about Clemson teams). They lost Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback, but five year senior Will Proctor steps in along with seven returning starters on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. They get South Carolina at home this year, but have to go to Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech. This young team just doesn’t have the guts yet to pull even 3-1 in those four games. So again we’ll wait another year to see if a Bowden other than Bobby can win the ACC. Predicted finish: 9-3
20. Auburn – Remember 2003? This same school of orange and blue was preseason ranked number two and then managed a 7-5 record in the regular season. I’m not saying you’ll see a collapse of that proportion by this Auburn team, but what I am saying is that I don’t see what all the hype is about. Sure Brandon Cox and Kenny Irons are talented (in fact I think Irons may be the best back in the country not named Peterson), but this team lost too much on both sides of the ball to even contend for the SEC title much less the national title. If they get through LSU, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Bama and then win the SEC championship then sure I’ll be a believer, but that’s a feat we likely won’t be seeing this year or any other for that matter. Predicted finish: 8-4
21. Florida – Urban Meyer and his spread (gimmick) offense was the worst thing that ever happened to Chris Leak, and because of Meyer Leak has fallen from bonafide first round pick to a draft day mystery (he’ll be much better in the NFL). This team is talented enough to win the SEC, but with quarterback questions and controversy likely to haunt them all year long I just don’t see it happening. Games at Tennessee and Auburn, and home against LSU stand in their way as well. Leak probably should have left after his junior season (or at least transferred) because now a pretty good kid’s career will end with nothing more than a bunch of empty promises. Predicted finish: 8-4
22. Virginia Tech – They lost some key players on both sides of the ball, but again the schedule is chalk full of patsies and Miami is the only team standing in their way from a return to the ACC title game. They have question marks just about everywhere on offense except for at receiver and on defense will have to replace four impact players from the 2005 unit that ranked number one in the nation (only because they didn’t play anyone). They’ll again lose to teams better than them (i.e Miami, Clemson) as well as one or two games they should win (i.e. Boston College or Georgia Tech), leaving them with a final ’06 record of oh sayâÂ?¦ Predicted finish: 9-3
23. Georgia – This looks like the team in the SEC this year that will make the most significant drop off from last season. Mark Richt has done an amazing job over the past five seasons dealing with adversity, but with the significant losses this team faces on both sides of the ball it’s hard for me to believe they can again contend for a SEC title this year. With question marks at just about every position the schedule, however, is favorable with their only tough road games coming against South Carolina and Auburn, but both are games the Bulldogs could easily lose. They’ve been the most consistent team in the conference over the past five years next to LSU, but this year their loss of talent finally catches up with them. Predicted finish: 8-4
24. Penn State – Joe Paterno is back for another year and if it’s up to himself and his doctor he’ll be back for the next ten. They only return nine of twenty-one starters from last year’s surprise team, and with games at Notre Dame, at Ohio State, and at Minnesota it will be almost impossible to match that performance. With a fairly easy end of October and November the Nittany Lions should find themselves streaking up the polls at season’s end. Predicted finish: 8-4
25. Arkansas – I really like this young Razorback team (well not personally, but professionally, well not even professionallyâÂ?¦) and they may be a year away from challenging for the SEC title outright, but they sure could play spoiler for some teams who are in the running for the title this year. With a brutal schedule that includes games against USC, at South Carolina, Tennessee and the regular slate of SEC West teams this team will be doing extremely well to get eight wins. Which is exactly what I predict for them to achieve. Predicted finish: 8-4
2. So with seven teams from the SEC in the top 25 does NewSportsWriters.com have a bias towards SEC schools?
Hell yes we do. In my defense it’s what I know best. As a graduate of LSU and an avid follower of SEC sports I obviously have a bias towards that conference mainly due to familiarity. But further in my defense take a look at the actual breakdown of the teams of my top 25 by conference:
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 4
ACC: 4
Big 12: 3
Big East: 2
PAC 10: 2
WAC: 1
Mountain West: 1
Independent: 1
As compared to the final rankings in the coaches and AP polls of the ’05 season:
SEC: 5
ACC: 5
Big 12: 4
PAC 10: 4
Big Ten: 3
Big East: 2
Mountain West: 1
Independent: 1
Ours isn’t that much different. Plus I feel that this year the PAC 10 and Big 12 are slightly down, and the SEC and ACC slightly up.
3. Who are NSW.com Heisman trophy winner and national champion?
Well as you can see I have Notre Dame playing Ohio State in the title game at this point, and it just so happens two of the leading candidates for the Heisman play for those two teams. If the season does play out as I’ve predicted there is no doubt that the trophy will come down to Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn and Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith. Given that Notre Dame will be undefeated at the time it will likely go to Quinn in a close vote (not to mention anytime a Notre Dame player is up for the award they win it). Some other candidates to consider are of course Adrian Peterson, Drew Tate, Kenny Irons, Michael Bush, and a host of others. Enjoy the season and please check back during the season for weekly game previews and predictions.
