Preview of the 2006 Gubernatorial Elections in the Midwest
Iowa- Open Seat (retiring governor Tom Vilsack)- Tom Vilsack pledged to run for only two terms and may have a future beyond Iowa, particularly as a vice presidential candidate in the 2008 presidential election. Popular Republican congressman Jim Nussle will win the Republican nomination for the 2006 gubernatorial election, while it seems likely that Chet Culver, the current Secretary of State, has the political momentum and lineage (his father is a former congressman) behind him to beat back challenges from a crowded Democratic field. Iowa was one of the tightest margin states in the 2004 presidential elections and both Republicans and Democrats from around the nation will be coming to support their respective candidates. In a state that likes to turn over their representation, Iowa will choose narrowly to go with Nussle instead of a Democratic candidate bruised by a 2006 gubernatorial primary. Projection Nussle will defeat Chet Culver 53-47%.
Illinois-Incumbent Rod Blagojevich (Democrat)- Blagojevich will benefit in the 2006 gubernatorial election from a dominant Democratic base in the Chicagoland area but the rest of the state may go significantly for Republican state treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, the 2006 Republican gubernatorial candidate. The divide between Chicago and the rest of Illinois makes it difficult for either party to make too many inroads, but Blagojevich has kept Illinois steady in his one term as governor. The potential anti-Republican tide nationwide might swing some votes to the Democrats statewide, but don’t expect too much change either way in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Projection Blagojevich beats Topinka 51-49% in a close race that may call out a brigade of lawyers and ballot counters.
Kansas- Incumbent Kathleen Sebelius (Democrat)- Sebelius is one of the few Democratic leaders in the Great Plains states and will benefit from a diluted Republican field. However, the upswing of conservative Republicanism in Kansas and elsewhere will benefit whomever the state Republicans choose in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. The most viable candidate at this point is current state senator Jim Barnett, also a physician, to perhaps give them their very own Bill Frist. In a surprisingly tight race, the benefit of the doubt by most observers goes to Sebelius. But in my opinion, the tie does not go to the incumbent and Jim Barnett will win the 2006 gubernatorial election in Kansas. Projection Barnett defeats Sebelius 52-48%, giving the Republicans a much-needed win in a difficult 2006 midterm election.
Michigan- Incumbent Jennifer Granholm (Democrat)- Granholm is a strong Democratic leader in a toughly contested state nationally and the 2006 gubernatorial election will prove or disprove the mettle of the Democratic Party for the 2008 presidential election. Granholm will face a strong push from Republican Richard DeVos, a businessman and husband of a former state party chairman. DeVos has money and some Republican assistance behind him and will keep the 2006 gubernatorial election close, energizing the Republican base for a tough fight in 2008. This gubernatorial race will set the table for both parties in the presidential election and the Republicans will make gains; however, Granholm is too popular in a state of strong Democratic pockets to lose re-election. Projection Granholm defeats DeVos 52-48% and Republicans will be happy to have built a strong state network for the 2008 presidential election.
Minnesota- Incumbent Tim Pawlenty (Republican)- Unless another independent wrestler or actor decides to run in the Minnesota gubernatorial election in 2006, Tim Pawlenty appears to be headed to a second term in office. The Democrats have not put up a significant fight so far in the early going in the 2006 gubernatorial election and Pawlenty has a strong hold on the office with a no-nonsense attitude toward governance. Even Jesse Ventura wouldn’t win this election because Minnesotans are happy with the way Pawlenty runs things from the governor’s mansion. Projection Pawlenty wins 58-60% of the vote in Minnesota and defeats the Democratic candidate (if one would like to step up, having a name may add a point or two to the Democratic total).
Nebraska- Interim governor Dave Heineman (Republican)- Lt. Governor Heineman took over for Governor Mike Johanns and is facing an intraparty challenge from popular ex-Nebraska football coach and congressman Tom Osborne. Osborne, trusted throughout the state and with some congressional experience under his belt, may give the Republicans a solid hold on Nebraska and a trusted face in a time when the Republican Party is mistrusted nationally. The 2006 gubernatorial election in Nebraska will go to the Republicans, as only one Democrat (publisher David Hahn) has announced his candidacy and moderate-conservative Democratic Senator Ben Nelson will probably be ousted. Projection Osborne will easily defeat Heineman for the nomination and whatever cardboard cutout the Democrats put up, with at least 60% of the state vote in the 2006 gubernatorial election.
Wisconsin- Incumbent Jim Doyle (Democrat)- Jim Doyle’s popularity in the state has held steady throughout his four year term in office, which is not necessarily a good thing in the 2006 gubernatorial election. His moderate politics sometimes rankles the progressive elements of the Democratic Party, while the Republicans in Wisconsin are using the 2006 gubernatorial election to express their frustration at Doyle’s use of the veto to stall their conservative agenda. The likely Republican candidate in the 2006 gubernatorial election is Representative Mark Green of Green Bay, who got a boost in his candidacy for the 2006 gubernatorial election when Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker withdrew. Green has built a solid nest egg from his congressional campaigns and would be aided with an endorsement, or the very least a solid answer, from former governor Tommy Thompson on whether he will run for office. In a state that narrowly went to John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election, Doyle may suffer from independents leaving his fold to join Mark Green in the 2006 gubernatorial election or, more significantly, if Tommy Thompson runs for governor in 2006. Projection: Doyle will win by less than 3%, 51-49%, against Mark Green in the 2006 gubernatorial election. If Tommy Thompson runs for governor, Doyle will lose to the still popular Thompson 55-45%.
