The 2006 Gubernatorial Elections in the American South

While the national representation of the Southern states in the United States has been largely Republican, the state elections for governor and the legislatures have remained balanced between Republican and Democrat. The 2006 gubernatorial elections should feature an even division between Democrats and Republicans in state houses across the South, especially with popular Republicans term limited in Arkansas and Florida. Both of these states will have hotly contested primaries and general elections and at least one will go to the Democratic Party.

Alabama- Incumbent Bob Riley (Republican)- Bob Riley’s greatest opponent in the 2006 gubernatorial elections will be in the Republican primary, where the infamous Roy Moore, of Ten Commandment wielding fame, is trying to lead a conservative revolution within the Alabama Republican Party. Riley will be strong enough to stave off Moore, though he will be weakened by a strong primary fight. Riley will then have to face an underdog campaign from Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Lucy Baxley, and the primary fight will make the 2006 general election more interesting. However, this is still Alabama and the Republicans have a stronghold on the governor’s seat.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Riley defeats Moore in the Republican primary 60-40% and Riley defeats Baxley 58-42%.

Arkansas-Open Seat (term limited)- The 2006 gubernatorial race to replace popular governor Mike Huckabee is going to be a heated one in a state that has tended Republican over the last decade but is the home of Bill Clinton. The Democrat’s presumptive nominee, state Attorney General Mike Beebe, is a moderate or New Democrat in the style of Clinton and needs to show his centrist beliefs in the 2006 gubernatorial campaign. The leading Republican in the 2006 gubernatorial race is former DEA chief Asa Hutchinson, who is also a moderate and may need to become more conservative in order to differentiate from Beebe. While the popular Huckabee may have long enough coat tails to elect a moderate Republican like Hutchinson, Beebe is able enough to defeat the Republicans and win another state for the Democrats.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Beebe defeats Hutchinson 54-46%.

Florida-Open Seat (term limited)- The popularity of outgoing Republican Jeb Bush and the importance of Florida to any Republican effort to keep the White House in 2008 will mean a flood of Republican money into the Sunshine State. The leading Republican candidate to fill the considerable shoes of Governor Bush is Attorney General Charlie Crist, who appears on his way to the nomination. The best Democratic candidate at this point is Congressman Jim Davis, but this election is surprisingly lethargic considering the importance of the office and the state in the national scheme of things. In lieu of something drastic happening in state politics or among the leading candidates, the tie goes to the incumbent’s party and Bush’s ability to usher in another term of Republican leadership.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Crist defeats Davis 53-47%.

Georgia- Incumbent Sonny Perdue (Republican)- Sonny Perdue is going to strengthen the Republican cause in Georgia, where one wouldn’t think that conservatism needs much help. But Perdue’s reelection bid would help solidify the Republican lead in the legislature and the Senate spots held by two conservative Republicans. The 2006 gubernatorial election will go easily to Perdue and the Democratic candidate, Georgia Secretary of State Cathy Cox, is going to put up a tough fight in a futile election. The Democrats can make a statement in the 2006 gubernatorial election, however, if they can keep the margin of victory below 20%.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Perdue defeats Cox 61-39%.

Oklahoma- Incumbent Brad Henry (Democrat)- In such a strongly Republican state as Oklahoma, it seems unlikely that a weak incumbent like Brad Henry would win reelection in the 2006 gubernatorial elections. Projections by many pundits say, however, that Henry will win in the fall because of the weak field of Republicans that does not include former congressman J.C. Watts. However, this seems to be fairly short sighted considering how conservative Oklahomans are and the likely Republican candidate, Congressman Ernest Istook, has to be the favorite in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Istook is conservative enough to lead the Sooner State and it should come as no surprise that Istook will be the Democrat Henry with enough of a mandate to lead Oklahoma ably.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Istook defeats Henry 54-46%.

South Carolina- Incumbent Mark Sanford (Republican)- Sanford has a lock on the 2006 gubernatorial race because South Carolina has been no place for Democrats for a long time and Sanford hasn’t committed any crimes or major public relations gaffes. The Democrats will put up state senator Tommy Moore but no Democrat in South Carolina would be able to challenge an incumbent governor given the current state of the South Carolina Democratic party. Sanford will give President Bush and the national Republicans one of a few safe political victories in fall of 2006.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Sanford defeats Moore 70-30%.

Tennessee- Incumbent Phil Bredesen (Democrat)- While Bill Frist’s Senate seat is up for grabs between the Democrats and the Republicans, Governor Phil Bredesen has had no comers from the Republican Party in the 2006 gubernatorial election. The Democrats are starting to surge again in the Volunteer State as the state Democrats have returned to their centrist roots (think Al Gore) in order to win back state seats. Bredesen has been a strong enough executive and is popular enough within Tennessee politics to scare off potential Republican opponents.

2006 Gubernatorial Projection- Bredesen defeats the Republican stand-in with at least 60% of the vote.

Texas- Incumbent Rick Perry (Republican)- Rick Perry avoided a primary fight with Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson but will face two strong and eager opponents in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Independent candidate Kinky Friedman, who has made waves in the national media with his candidacy, is a refreshing voice in the sometimes stale Texas air. Former congressman Chris Bell (whose district was redistricted in a scheme by Tom Delay) should be a strong candidate against Perry but the Texas Democrats are not strong enough to make him into a contender. Perry may not be in the Bush/Rove crowd in Texas but he has stayed away from the Republican controversy machine enough to stay in charge of the Lone Star State.

2006 Gubernatorial Election- Rick Perry gets 48% of the vote, Chris Bell gets 38% of the vote, and Kinky Friedman gets 12-13% of the vote, mostly from independents and disgruntled members of both parties.