The 2006 Gubernatorial Elections in the Southwest

The Southwest has a history of being wild and eccentric socially and politically and the 2006 gubernatorial elections will be no exception. With progressive Republicans and moderate Democrats breaking the molds of their national parties, anything is possible in the 2006 midterm elections. However, with the pattern of national politics leaning toward a backlash against the Republican Party, it seems that the Southwest will almost uniformally go to the Democratic Party. However, these aren’t the free spending liberal Democrats that have been painted in the media for so many years. Incumbents like Bill Richardson and Janet Napolitano sit in the center of the political spectrum and in order to win in states like Hawaii and California in the 2006 gubernatorial elections, they will have to drift toward the middle.

Arizona-Incumbent Janet Napolitano (Democrat)- Napolitano has done a solid job maintaining her popularity in conservative Arizona and the Republican Party has apparently decided not to do much in the way of supporting their crowded field of substandard candidates. Popular Congressman J.D. Hayworth decided not to run, leaving the state GOP with conservative activist Len Mansil, former state appeals justice Jan Florez, and Barry Goldwater’s nephew Don Goldwater. More conservatives will come forward in a state with a strong Republican base, but Napolitano will win re-election easily over a weak Republican field. 2006 Gubernatorial Projection Napolitano will defeat Jan Florez in the general election 60-40%.

California- Incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger (Republican)- Schwarzenegger, entering the governor’s mansion as a political maverick (or unknown, depending on opinion), won by virtue of his ability to unite independents, Republicans, and disgruntled Democrats into a governing coalition. However, he has lost a lot of this support by virtue of his various failings as the state’s executive and the Democratic Party in California will be able to put down Schwarzenegger rather easily. While some pundits think that the dearth of star appeal for Democratic frontrunner (and state party favorite) Phil Angelides, party regulars and a frustrated (and unpredictable) electorate will choose Angelides over the current governor, who is still showing that while he is independent, he is still a political novice. 2006 Gubernatorial Projection Angelides will defeat Schwarzenegger 55-45% and will put some “normalcy” back into California politics with a more polished political approach and agenda.

Colorado-Open Seat-Governor Bill Owens is term limited and leaves Colorado with a political shootout within both parties. While the Republicans have been fairly strong in the state over the last decade, the Democratic Party has made inroads over the last two elections within the state. Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez has a lock on the 2006 Republican gubernatorial nomination, despite efforts by other Republicans to put up a significant challenge. The Colorado Republican Party is going to decide early on a candidate and work on tearing apart their Democratic opponents. Bill Ritter, Denver’s district attorney, is the only Democrat to throw his hat in the ring and his more moderate social views may rankle progressive Democrats in the state. Beauprez and the Colorado Republicans seem to have an edge at this point, given their superior organization and the fact that Ritter is not the strongest of Democratic candidates. However, the addition of the Colorado legislature, a House and a Senate seat in the Democratic Party fold over the last four years makes the 2006 gubernatorial election fascinating. 2006 Gubernatorial Projection Beauprez faces problems with budget issues and Democratic upswing, but will squeeze out the win over Bill Ritter 52-48%, by virtue of his strength within his congressional district.

Hawaii- Incumbent Linda Lingle (Republican)- Lingle is a Republican island in a traditionally Democratic stronghold. Lingle won an open seat in 2002 and while she is fairly popular through her first term, she is not invincible. A stronger candidate than former state politician Randall Iwase may put this one in the Democrat’s column, but Iwase may have enough in the take for a state that has almost been an afterthought in national politics. Lingle will put up a good fight but Iwase (or a more prominent Democrat who comes forward) will take the island back into Democratic politics. 2006 Gubernatorial Projection Iwase will defeat Lingle 54-46%.

New Mexico-Incumbent Bill Richardson (Democrat)- Richardson has a solid lock on another term as governor in New Mexico, given his high national profile and his strong leadership on important issues to New Mexico like aerospace development and nuclear energy. Republican J.R. Damron will not give Richardson much of a fight due to his popularity and the weakness of Republicans nationally, more than likely leaving Damron without much support from outside the state. 2006 Gubernatorial Popularity Richardson will win 65-70% of the vote and will stay in contention within the Democratic Party for a future role in national politics.

Nevada- Open Seat (term limits)- Governor Kenny Guinn is limited to two terms by state constitution and the state is up for grabs in the 2006 gubernatorial elections. A state hotly contested in the 2004 presidential election, Nevada will feature two strong intraparty scuffles before the general gubernatorial election. State senator Diana Titus has a solid hold on the Democratic nomination, but if popular and eccentric Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman enters the race, he will win in a state that is looking for a greater national political profile. Congressman Jim Gibbons looks to be in the lead for the Republican nomination, but watch out for Kenny Guinn’s hand picked successor, Lt. Governor Lorraine Hunt. It will end up being Titus versus Hunt in the general election and the Democrats will make a strong statement in Nevada with a Democratic win in the 2006 gubernatorial elections. 2006 Gubernatorial Projection Titus will defeat Hunt 55-45%, as the state is seeking new leadership.