The 2006 House Elections in the Mid-Atlantic States

The Mid-Atlantic States in the 2006 House race should be interesting, considering that several upstate New York races have become more competitive than in the recent past and the Virginia Second District seat will either be a confirmation of the Democratic takeover of the state or a repudiation of the state level gains made by the Democrats. However competitive these races are, however, it seems unlikely that this region will be the source of any great political revolution in the 2006 House races.

New York Twentieth District- Sweeney is treading on thin ice in the 2006 House race, with a tough Democratic opponent and ethics questions about family ski trips. His opponent, attorney Kirstin Gillibrand, will be able to compete with Sweeney in fund raising, though the incumbent has more cash on hand at this point in the campaign season. Gillibrand is polished enough as an attorney and public advocate to make her competitive in this race, but Sweeney will be able to defeat an inexperienced political candidate without much room for mandate.

2006 House Projection: Incumbent John Sweeney holds on to his seat but with a very narrow margin, defeating Kirstin Gillibrand 51-49%.

New York Twenty-Fourth District- Twelve term incumbent Sherwood Boehlert opted out of the 2006 House race, after a prominent spot in the Republican leadership was not available to him. In order to replace Boehlert, the Republicans will probably nominated state senator Ray Meier who is moderate enough to be in the same ballpark as Boehlert. The Democrats smell blood in the water in this district in upstate New York, which has traditionally been a moderate Republican district. Their nominee will be Oneida County Attorney General Michael Arcuri, whose role as lawyer for most of the district makes him more representative over the Twenty Fourth than Meier. This district went to President Bush in 2004 but it vacillates between Republicans and Democrats. Arcuri should be capable of swinging enough moderate Republicans and independents to make him a viable successor to Boehlert.

2006 House Projection: Democrat Michael Arcuri defeats Ray Meier 54-46% in the race to replace long time representative Sherwood Boehlert.

New York Twenty-Ninth District- Incumbent Randy Kuhl barely got a majority in the 2004 general election, facing a mediocre Democratic candidate and a third party conservative challenge. This time around, Kuhl faces ex-naval officer Eric Massa, who has grassroots support in and out of New York as well as a close relationship with 2004 presidential candidate General Wesley Clark. Kuhl has a five-to-one fund raising advantage at this point in the campaign but the national Democratic apparatus is gearing up to support Massa through November. Massa will be moderate enough politically to take out any possible attacks by Kuhl about Massa’s politics and his military service makes him an appealing candidate.

2006 House Projection: Eric Massa confounds expectations of a close Republican win and cruises to victory over Randy Kuhl 55-45%.

Virginia Second District- Drake won a special election in 2004 for this open congressional seat but Drake, a former state delegate, faces a very difficult challenge from Virginia Beach revenue commissioner Phil Kellam. Kellam may benefit from the popularity of Democrats like former governor Mark Warner and current governor Tim Kaine and is already one of the most popular Democrats in the state. Drake, however, has a two-to-one fund raising advantage and unlike the 2005 gubernatorial race, the Republican Party may be able to sway this one back into their column. However, the jury is out on who has an advantage, as special election incumbency is often a complicating factor in general elections.

2006 House Projection: Thelma Drake narrowly defeats challenger Phil Kellam 52-48%.