The 2006 House Elections in the Ohio Valley
Ohio First District- In this Cincinnati dominated district, incumbent Steve Chabot has been the beneficiary of Republican efforts to redistrict throughout the United States. Chabot’s district has gone from moderate to low importance in the Republican scheme nationally so there is a distinct possibility of an upset. The Democratic candidate, Cincinnati councilman and 2000 congressional candidate John Cranley, has grassroots support within the city and some help from the national Democratic Party. However, Chabot has done little to upset his constituents, has a three-to-one fund raising advantage, and Cranley has not done enough to leap frog Chabot in the 2006 House races.
2006 House Projection: Incumbent Steve Chabot uses redistricting to his advantage to defeat young challenger John Cranley 53-47%.
Ohio Sixth District- Democratic representative Ted Strickland is leaving his House seat to run in the Ohio gubernatorial election and this seat may be one of the more competitive ones in the 2006 House race. The Sixth is a huge district sprawling across eastern Ohio and has a variety of political affiliations, which means that a moderate of either party may be the best candidate to serve these constituents. The Democrats will run state senator Charlie Wilson, who had difficulty in getting his name on the ballot. The Republicans will run state senate Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel, who has tax problems over the last couple of years and brings character issues into the campaign. Blasdel’s funding was worn thin during the Republican primary, while Wilson’s write-in campaign to win the Democratic nomination yielded him a significant mandate from his own party. Their respective primary campaigns may prove to be prophetic of this 2006 House race and Wilson’s problems in getting on the ballot may have been the best thing for organizing the Democrats in this district.
2006 House Projection: Charlie Wilson defeats state senator Chuck Blasdel to keep the seat in the Democratic column, 55-45%.
Ohio Thirteenth District- This 2006 House race is wide open, following the decision of Democrat Sherrod Brown to leave his seat to run against Mike DeWine for the U.S. Senate. Betty Sutton, the Democratic nominee and a former state representative, is a solid candidate that does not attract massive crowds but may be enough to keep this seat Democratic. Mayor of Lorain Craig Foltin should be the Republican candidate and his popularity in the region will make this a close 2006 House election. Foltin is a popular mayor in a Democratic area and might be able to sway independents and disgruntled Democrats, but Sutton should be able to do enough in a Democrat-friendly election year to mobilize support behind her candidacy.
2006 House Projection: Betty Sutton replaces Sherrod Brown as representative of the Thirteenth District, defeating Republican Craig Foltin 51-49%.
Ohio Fifteenth District- While Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy may arguably be the best candidate in the district to face off against Deborah Pryce in the 2006 House race, that does not mean she will keep this as competitive as Democrats would hope. Pryce has the benefit of heading the House Republican’s congressional campaign committee and while the Republicans are facing a tough year this year, Pryce has the name recognition (and massive fund raising advantage) to defeat Kilroy.
2006 House Projection: Deborah Pryce maintains her seat, defeating challenger Mary Jo Kilroy 59-41%.
Ohio Eighteenth District- Incumbent Bob Ney will have difficulty in keeping this seat, given his repeated ethics indiscretions and attachment to the Jack Abramoff scandal. Zack Space won the recent Democratic primary and his popularity in pockets throughout the district, along with Ney’s unabashed abuse of power in the House, makes Space a viable candidate in the 2006 House race.
2006 House Projection: Zack Space defeats the scandal beleaguered Bob Ney 51-49%.
Pennsylvania Sixth District- Incumbent Jim Gerlach will face off against 2004 Democratic candidate Lois Murphy, who narrowly lost in that election. Gerlach has faced some problematic issues like the thousands of dollars he took from Tom DeLay’s political action committee and his obfuscation as to where the money is going in light of DeLay’s disgraceful career ending scandal. However, Murphy may not be a strong enough candidate to overcome Gerlach in fund raising and Gerlach has answered the funding charges by promising to return to DeLay’s money if he is convicted. This one will be one of the most tightly contested races in the nation and it will help define the direction of Pennsylvania heading into the 2008 presidential election.
2006 House Projection: Jim Gerlach narrowly defeats challenger Lois Murphy, 52-48%.
