The 2006 House Elections in the Southern Atlantic States
Florida Thirteenth District- In the race to take over for Republican Katherine Harris (running for the United States Senate), there is no clear favorite at this point in the 2006 House race. The likely Republican candidate is auto dealer Tramm Hudson, who can self fund in this race as long as the primary is not too rigorous. The Democratic candidate will be Sarasota businesswoman Christine Jennings who can also provide some of her own money in the 2006 House race. However, it seems likely that the Republicans will be out in full force to elect a candidate without the history or stigma of Katherine Harris, though this race will be hard fought to the end.
2006 House Projection: Tramm Hudson hangs on to this seat for the Florida Republicans, defeating challenger Christine Jennings 52-48%
Florida Twenty Second District- Incumbent Clay Shaw is ensconced in incumbency in the Twenty Second, as a long time representative and former mayor of Fort Lauderdale. However, the Florida Democrats chose state senate Minority Leader Ron Klein to face off against Shaw and the choice is going to reap significant benefits. Klein is even with Shaw in fund raising, has support from a great number of state and national Democrats, and has the political experience to take on Shaw. As well, Shaw will be sensitive to the anti-Republican wave throughout the 2006 House elections and is hurt by the fact that John Kerry won the district in 2004.
2006 House Projection: Ron Klein goes toe-to-toe with incumbent Clay Shaw ideologically and in fund raising and pulls out an upset with a 51-49% victory.
Georgia Eighth District- Incumbent Jim Marshall is looking to hold off a challenge from former representative (before redistricting) Mac Collins, who was a six-term congressman before his district was lumped into the Eighth District. Marshall has nearly a two-to-one fund raising advantage over Collins and Marshall has enough support in Macon in order to improve slightly on his 2004 House race results.
2006 House Projection: Jim Marshall holds off Republican Mac Collins to maintain this Democratic haven in Georgia, 52-48%.
Georgia Twenty-Second District- Incumbent John Barrow is going to try and keep his seat safe for Democrats in increasingly Republican Georgia, but faces a tough challenge from former representative Max Burns, whom he defeated in 2004. Barrow has nearly a million dollars in fund raising to this point and while Burns is a strong enough candidate for the Republicans, Barrow should be strong enough to hold off the challenge due to his moderate to conservative Democratic ideals.
2006 House Projection: John Barrow defeats Republican Max Burns to keep this seat, 53-47%.
North Carolina Eleventh District- Incumbent Charles Taylor has significant personal wealth and the power of incumbency in a historically Republican district on his side in the 2006 House race. However, Taylor has been unapologetic about his involvement in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal and will have to reconcile that with the rural Carolina constituents he represents. The Democrats recruited former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler to run against Taylor and they have chosen a candidate with a good combination of qualities: fame in neighboring Tennessee and in rural Carolina, a solid personal war chest, and an ability to claim an outsider campaign against the political veteran Taylor. While Shuler has had difficulty adjusting his novice political ideals, he has been able to out-raise Taylor so far by quite a bit and his image as a football hero speaks volumes to his future constituents.
2006 House Projection: Heath Shuler will be able to use his fund raising ability, the North Carolina Democrats’ hard work, and his outsider mentality to defeat weak incumbent Charles Taylor, 55-45%.
South Carolina Fifth District- In an increasingly Republican district in a solidly Republican state, twelve term Democrat John Spratt is in some serious trouble. While Spratt has done nothing wrong to the constituents of the Fifth District, he is still a Democrat and any movement to the right on ideology would make him a flip flopper. The Republicans wisely chose popular conservative state senator Ralph Norman to face off against Spratt. Spratt has built up a small lead in fund raising but not to the level that most incumbents are able to achieve. Norman should be able to take over this seat and give the Republicans a bright spot in a difficult mid-term campaign.
2006 House Projection: Ralph Norman defeats incumbent John Spratt to take back this seat for the Republican Party, 56-44%.
