The 2006 House Elections in the Southern States

The South is hardening into a politically divided region, with some areas solidifying as Democratic strongholds, while most districts are becoming more Republican by the day. The 2006 House elections in the states below are defining this divide, as several incumbents will face significant challenges and possibly lose their seats. The reasons include a more diverse Democratic Party over the last two years, especially with Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy broadening the definition of the party, and Republican corruption.

Kentucky Second District- The Kentucky Second is solidly in the Republican column in the 2006 House race, given the almost impenetrable incumbency of Ron Lewis. Lewis, the Republican representative for the district since the 1994 special election, has an eight-to-one fund raising advantage over his Democratic opponent, state representative and veteran Mike Weaver. As well, Lewis has the advantage of being in a solidly Republican district that probably won’t waver for a Democrat unless they are of the conservative variety.

2006 House Projection: Incumbent Republican Ron Lewis will defeat Mike Weaver 60-40%.

Kentucky Third District- The Democratic primary on May 17, 2006, yielded a candidate in local publisher and journalist John Yormuth. Yormuth will benefit from an increasing amount of Democratic organization in the district and incumbent Anne Northrup does not have the same benefit of incumbency as others throughout the nation. Northrup’s district has yielded Democratic successes in 2000 (Al Gore) and 2004 (John Kerry) and Yormuth may be moderate enough to push Northrup out the door.

2006 House Projection: John Yormuth is going to benefit from increased Democratic organization in the district, defeating incumbent Anne Northrup 51-49%.

Kentucky Fourth District- The Fourth District of Kentucky has been jostled by change in their representation over the past couple of election cycles, with first term Congressman Geoff Davis defeating Nick Clooney 54-44% in 2004. This district, however, is beginning to sway back toward the Democrats and the best candidate the Democrats could have gotten, popular former representative Ken Lucas, has decided to run in the 2006 House race. Lucas defeated Davis in 2002, is a solid fund raiser, and is conservative enough to win over independents and moderate Republicans. Lucas will be able to get enough support from outside the party to cut the legs out from under Davis’ campaign in 2006.

2006 House Projection: Ken Lucas will retake a seat in Congress and ignite Democrats in Kentucky, defeating incumbent Geoff Davis 53-47%.

West Virginia First District- Incumbent Alan Mollohan has not faced any serious opposition in his long tenure as representative from West Virginia but his toughest opponent may be himself in the 2006 House race. Recent allegations of misdeeds by Mollohan revolve around the earmarks that he championed for non-profit organizations, which by and large were operated by friends of Mollohan. There have also been questions about Mollohan’s recent financial largess, increasing from the hundreds of thousands to the multi-millions in the last couple of years. The Republicans are putting up state delegate and veteran Chris Wakim to take down Mollohan and the conservative nature of the district will make this a tough race. Wakim will be able to pin Mollohan to the wall with the ethics issue and the Republicans would be wise to play up Wakim’s military and political experience in order to take this seat.

2006 House Projection: Chris Wakim will benefit from Alan Mollohan’s problems with ethics violations, defeating the incumbent 54-46%.