The 2006 House Races in the Southwest

Arizona Fifth District- Incumbent J.D. Hayworth has become slightly more polished than when he first took office in the House of Representatives, but he is still far from a sure thing in keeping his seat in the 2006 House elections. Hayworth has been attached to the Abramoff lobbying scandal and his role as a proponent of the House Republican immigration bill that would essentially shut down the Mexican border has polarized citizens in Arizona. On top of this, Hayworth is facing state Democratic chairperson and former state senator Harry Mitchell, who has been able to put together a strong grassroots effort in the state to bring a greater Democratic presence at the local and state level. Prominent Republicans may choose to stay away from Hayworth given his abrasive public persona and his attachment to the Abramoff scandal, giving Mitchell a decided advantage.
2006 House Projection- J.D. Hayworth’s attachment to the Jack Abramoff scandal, his lacking incumbency, and his abrasive nature in public polarizes the Fifth District, with Harry Mitchell defeating Hayworth 53-47%.

Arizona Eighth District- With Jim Kolbe giving up his seat to challenge Janet Napolitano for governor in 2006, the Republicans are struggling to keep a district that would have gone in their column with Kolbe in the race. Now, the Republicans will have a difficult primary where the nature of Arizona Republicanism will be addressed for the 2006 and 2008 elections. Former state representative Randy Graf is the frontrunner, though his low fund raising total is disconcerting to party leaders who expect a tough primary season. Given these facts, the relatively easy candidacy of Democratic frontrunner, state senator Gabrielle Giffords, will give Republicans headaches in this 2006 House race. Giffords has nearly 250,000 dollars in her war chest, while Graf has a mere 25,000 dollars to this point.

2006 House Projection- Gabrielle Giffords faces a much easier road without much intraparty opposition, while Randy Graf has to scrap through the Republican primary. Giffords defeats Graf 60-40%.

Colorado Third District- Incumbent John Salazar, who completed a Salazar Brothers sweep of the state of Colorado (brother Ken won a Senate seat in 2004), has the decided advantage in the 2006 House elections because of his incumbent status and the fact that this district is growing into a more Democratic one by the month. Republican Scott Tipton is not getting the same kind of help that other Republicans are within the Southwest or even within Colorado, as John Salazar is becoming a prominent member of the House Democrats and has a significant fund raising advantage. Colorado will be one of the most fierce battles in the 2008 presidential election and the Democrats will put their energy into setting the table with a victory for John Salazar.

2006 House Projection- John Salazar defeats Scott Tipton in an increasingly Democratic district, 56-44%.

Colorado Fourth District- Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave’s social conservatism has made her a target by the national Democratic Party in a state that is going increasingly towards the left. However, Musgrave has a massive (1 million to 105,000 dollars) fund raising advantage over her opponent, Democrat state representative Angie Paccione. While Musgrave has rubbed up against moderates and independents with her aggressive stands on social and moral issues, Paccione is not a strong enough candidate to take down an incumbent with an independent streak and an advantage in funds.

2006 House Projection- Marilyn Musgrave’s fund raising advantage is just too much for the Democrats to overcome and Musgrave defeats Paccione 58-42%.

Colorado Seventh District- In an open seat left by Bob Beauprez’s gubernatorial run, the Democrats are putting a lot of faith in state senator Ed Perlmutter to take back this seat for the party in 2006. Perlmutter has a primary battle ahead of him, but the national Democratic Party is working hard for his candidacy. The Republicans will most likely go with state educational advisor Rick O’Donnell as their candidate, as his stock is rising within the GOP in the 2006 House race. However, Colorado is increasingly Democratic and education in Colorado has suffered as result of the caps installed by the Taxpayers’ Bill of Rights. This will be a major campaign issue in favor of Perlmutter’s candidacy.

2006 House Projection- Ed Perlmutter can use the problems with Colorado public education against Rick O’Donnell, defeating his Republican opponent 53-47%.

New Mexico First District- Heather Wilson has some strong points for her 2006 House campaign, including frustrations with Republican leadership on issues of immigration and her ability to side with both parties when her political conscience dictates. While this may be an asset in abstract to pundits outside of the district, voters also realize that they need someone who is going to work well with their own party to get an agenda through Congress. State Attorney General Patricia Madrid is a moderate along the lines of Governor Bill Richardson and has the support of a growing Democratic grassroots apparatus. While Wilson’s independence is refreshing in a stodgy House environment, Madrid’s star is rising within the Democratic Party.

2006 House Projection- Patricia Madrid defeats Heather Wilson 52-48%.

Nevada Second District- The Republicans are fighting a furious battle within their own party in order to nominate someone for the open House seat left by John Gibbons, who is running for governor. Dean Heller appears likely to jump ahead in the race for the Republican nomination and has a solid fund raising advantage heading into the general election in the 2006 House race. State university regent Jill Derby has a solid lock on the Democratic nomination and could be moderate enough to win this House seat in a state with Senator Harry Reid as one of its most popular political figures. However, it seems more likely that Gibbons’ popularity will rub off on the person who emerges from the Nevada Republican nominating process.

2006 House Projection- Dean Heller defeats Jill Derby 56-44%.