The 2006 House Races in the Upper Midwest
Minnesota Second District- Incumbent John Kline faces a strong challenge from Democratic candidate Coleen Rowley, who is well recognized as a former FBI agent and whistleblower. Rowley, however, has had some public relations missteps and has looked unpolished politically. Kline can use his experience in the House, this district’s moderate nature, and Rowley’s lack of political experience to keep his House seat in 2006.
2006 House Projection- John Kline holds on to his seat, but Coleen Rowley keeps the gap between Democrats and Republicans close, with a 52-48% result.
Minnesota Sixth District- Republican Mark Kennedy has left the Sixth District seat to run in the open Senate race in 2006, so the 2006 House race for this seat is wide open. While this district leans Republican, a strong Democratic push within the region and the state may make the difference between a Republican and a Democratic victor. The Republicans will have a tough primary fight between conservative state senator Michele Bachmann and moderate state representative Jim Knobloch, with Knobloch likely to win independents and moderates within the party. On the Democratic side, the frontrunner and likely nominee for the 2006 House seat is Blaine Mayor Elwyn Tinklerberg, who was the State Treasurer under Governor Ventura and might be able to swing the large independent vote towards the Democrats. This race will come down to which direction the state is heading in politically and it seems that the Democrats will make some inroads in this state, at least with this particular House seat in 2006.
2006 House Projection- With Mark Kennedy’s foray into the Senate race, the Republicans will lose this seat to a fairly strong Democratic candidate in Elwyn Tinkleberg, with a 53-47% outcome.
North Dakota Seat (only seat)- In the only House seat in strongly Republican North Dakota, Democrat Earl Pomeroy will face a backlash from Republicans who want their state identified with conservative ideas. While Pomeroy is a moderate Democrat and has done little to draw the ire of his constituents, the Republicans will be mobilized in order to keep the House in the Republican column in 2006. However, farmer and party activist Matt Mechtela is not a strong enough candidate to knock out Pomeroy in the 2006 House race.
2006 House Projection- Incumbent Earl Pomeroy gains re-election, defeating Matt Mechtela 51-49%.
South Dakota Seat (only seat)- Similar to North Dakota, South Dakotan Republicans are going to try and take back their only House seat in the 2006 race. Incumbent Stephanie Herseth has one strong victory (2004) behind her and has been conservative enough to assuage the concerns of her constituents. Larry Diedrich will try his best to beat out Herseth, but the 50 state strategy in the Democratic National Committee is beginning to work in places like the Dakotas.
2006 House Projection- Despite the strongly Republican nature of South Dakota, Stephanie Herseth is a stronger candidate than Larry Diedrich and keeps her seat, 54-46%.
Wisconsin Eight District- This district, which is strongly Republican on social issues, is up for grabs for several reasons. The Green Bay-Fox Valley region is one of the highest growth areas for business and population in the country, there is growing frustration with the Bush administration and Republicans over budget issues, and both parties are setting up shop in Green Bay early to prepare for a tough fight in the 2006 House race. The Republicans are probably set with Wisconsin Assembly Speaker John Gard, but a protest vote by moderates disgruntled with the Assembly’s foot dragging might go toward state representative Terri McCormick. On the Democratic side, the three major candidates include former mayor of De Pere Nancy Nusbaum, local businessman and former aide to Governor Jim Doyle Jamie Wall, and wealthy doctor Steven Kagan. While many are tempted by a candidate like Kagan, who has already brought over a million dollars into the campaign and can self fund for the most part, the most likely choice for Democrats in the 2006 House race is Nancy Nusbaum. Nusbaum’s experience within the community and her name recognition in Green Bay and De Pere makes her a formidable opponent for John Gard.
2006 House Projection- Mark Green does no favors for the Republicans by leaving a safe seat and potentially losing the 2006 gubernatorial race. Nancy Nusbaum defeats John Gard 51-49%.
