The 2006 House Races on the Pacific Coast

The Pacific Coast is notorious for being fickle and independent in their politics, with many districts as likely to vote Democrat as they would Republican in any given state or national election. The most intriguing district in this region is the California Fiftieth, which was vacated by Duke Cunningham earlier in 2006 for his involvement in a bribery and graft scheme. The district, which leans Republican generally, is up for grabs and could give the Democrats another key win in the 2006 House race.

California Fourth District- Doolittle has represented this northeast Californian district well over the last two years and his likely opponent, tax expert and whistleblower Michael Hamersley, is a ballot filler for the Democrats in a strongly Republican district. Hamersley will try to attach himself to the crusade by Democrats against a corrupt Republican Party but Doolittle’s constituents have seen no signs of corruption in their congressman and there is little reason to believe they have motivation to get rid of the incumbent.

2006 House Projection- John Doolittle got support from the Bush administration in 2004, where Bush won the district with 61% of the vote. However low Bush’s support might be nationwide, the northeast California coast is relatively conservative and Doolittle will win his seat back, defeating Michael Hamersley 65-35%.

California Eleventh District- Incumbent Richard Pombo is facing some heat from his Democratic opponents over possible ethics violations involving illegal use of funds from his campaign for use by his family and friends. Former Representative Jerry McNerney and veteran Steve Filson will run against each other in the Democratic primary, with Filson getting a lot of attention from the Democratic Party. Filson will be able to pin the question of ethics and clean leadership on Pombo and Filson’s military experience and moderate politics should be able to sweep Pombo out of office.

2006 House Projection- Democratic candidate Steve Filson defeats Richard Pombo 54-46%.

California Fiftieth District- In the district formerly held by Randy “Duke” Cunningham, there will be a slew of Democratic and Republican candidates trying to bring a new sense of morality to politics in Southern California. Republican state senator Bill Morrow has a long road to walk in order to beat back a serious challenge from Democrat Francine Busby, who has an almost two to one fund-raising advantage early on. The national Democratic Party will be pushing money and time into this district to take advantage of Cunningham’s failings and despite efforts by Morrow and Republicans to separate themselves from the scandal, the 2006 House race in this district will go to the Democrats.

2006 House Projection- The backlash against Duke Cunningham and the scandals of the Republican Party will help usher in Democrat Francine Busby to Congress, with her win over state senator Bill Morrow 53-47% in the June 6th special election.

Oregon Fifth District- Darlene Hooley won with a narrow margin in 2004 and the 2006 House race should promise to be another close election. Mike Erikson is a decent candidate for the Republicans, but Oregon has a strong independent streak running through its political scheme. Hooley will have to scrap out this race because Republicans are targeting her for defeat in their scheme to maintain control over Congress. However, Democrats will rally to her defense and independents will end up siding with a locally recognized liberal instead of an unknown moderate.

2006 House Projection- Darlene Hooley defeats Mike Erikson 51-49%.

Washington Second District- Rick Larson has a three-to-one fund raising advantage at this point in the race and the Democrats are fairly strong in this district in the 2006 House race. Republican Doug Roulstone is not a strong enough candidate for conservatives and moderates in the party to take this House seat in 2006 and Larson is well-liked within the district.

2006 House Projection- Democrat Rick Larson will defeat Republican Doug Roulstone 60-40%.

Washington Eighth District- Incumbent David Reichert could face a tough challenge in the 2006 House race because of his Democratic opponent, Darcy Burner, is a former Microsoft executive. Microsoft’s main offices in Redmond, WA, lay outside of the district but many constituents travel to work at Microsoft or are tied to the company in some financial way. However, Burner is not a polished leader or politician and Reichert has done enough to squeeze this election out in a Democratic election.

2006 House Projection- This 2006 House race will be closer than expected, with Republican David Reichert narrowly beating former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner 52-48%.