The 2006 Senate Elections in the American Midwest
Indiana- Incumbent Richard Lugar (Republican)- Popular Indiana Senator Dick Lugar should win re-election for a fifth term in the 2006 Senate election, given the fact that no major Democratic candidates have stepped forward. Former Congressman and 9/11 commission member Tim Roemer opted out of the race and for good reason. Lugar has been a key figure in Indiana politics for three decades and is a significant figure in the Senate on foreign relations issues.
2006 Senate Projection- Lugar defeats a nameless Democrat with at least 75% of the vote, so more than likely the Democrats will find a ballot filler.
Michigan- Debbie Stabenow (Democrat)- Stabenow upset Senator Spencer Abraham in 2000 and looks to win with a significant mandate in an up year for Democrats across the county. Stabenow’s strong leadership of Michigan in the Senate and her progressive politics are favorable to the strong Democratic constituency mobilized for the 2006 Senate campaign. In a weakened Republican field that seems lax in its approach to the 2006 Senate campaign, Oakland County sheriff and former state senate majority leader Mike Bouchard appears to be the most likely candidate to receive the Republican nomination. However, Stabenow should win by more votes than in her 2000 campaign and give both sides a lesson for the 2008 election: the Democrats on how to strengthen their party in states that waver between Democrat and Republican, and the Republicans that a 50-state strategy is the best approach to strengthen their party.
2006 Senate Projection- Stabenow defeats Bouchard 56-44%, giving her a stronger mandate for the next six years.
Minnesota- Open Seat- Even though a huge number of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are taking advantage of an open seat left by Mark Dayton’s retirement, the two major parties already have solid candidates that will likely win the nomination: Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy and Democratic attorney Amy Klobuchar. Kennedy and Klobuchar will get a lot of attention from out of state because this is a toss up state. However, the progressive history of Minnesota and the fact that Democrats are benefitting in the 2006 Senate elections from poor Republican governance and greater Democratic organization means that Klobuchar will defeat Kennedy by a slim margin.
2006 Senate Projection- Klobuchar will defeat Kennedy 51-49%.
Missouri- Jim Talent (Republican)- Jim Talent has kept a low profile in his term as Senator which usually means that an opponent has nothing to work with. But there is also the possibility that such a low profile means inactivity in the Senate and Talent may be a victim by proxy of backlash against Republicans. Democrat Claire McCaskill, Missouri’s state auditor, is the only prominent and Democratic Missourian to step forward to challenge Talent and fortune favors the bold. McCaskill will be able to pin Talent’s moderation as fence sitting and Missouri is a state that can be fickle about their politicians (Mel Carnahan defeated John Ashcroft in 2000, even though Carnahan was dead for two months).
2006 Senate Projection- McCaskill defeats Talent 53-47%.
Nebraska- Ben Nelson (Democrat)- Ben Nelson, a Democratic island in Republican Nebraska, was not a big winner in his 2000 Senate campaign and he has faced a constant barrage of criticism from within his own party for siding often with President Bush. Nelson is not long for this seat, despite the Republican Party’s inability to draw in a big name candidate for the 2006 Senate nomination. Pete Ricketts, a wealthy former business executive, will edge out Republican Party Chair for Nebraska David Kramer, mostly because he is igniting interest in a lethargic conservative constituency and can finance a significant part of his campaign with his own money. Ricketts will help the Republicans in that sense, considering they want to put money in bigger cost areas like Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the conservative Democrat Nelson will lose out to a conservative Republican in Ricketts every time.
2006 Senate Projection- Pete Ricketts defeats Ben Nelson 53-47%.
Wisconsin- Herb Kohl (Democrat)-Herb Kohl, who is in no real trouble in the 2006 Senate campaign, has been vigorous in getting his name and agenda out to voters in Wisconsin with early season campaign ads. Kohl, a wealthy businessman and owner of the NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks, should save some of his money for when the Republicans actually put a name up for the 2006 Senate campaign. The two Republican names currently out for the 2006 Senate nomination are Robert Lorge, a staunchly conservative regular on the Wisconsin ballot, and businessman David Redick. Even with a growing conservative movement in Wisconsin, the 2006 Senate election will go easily to Kohl.
2006 Senate Projection- Kohl defeats Redick 70-30%.
