The 2006 Senate Elections in the American Northeast
Connecticut- Incumbent Joe Lieberman (Democrat)- Lieberman faces the biggest threat from wealthy businessman Ned Lamont in a Democratic primary. Lamont’s opposition to the war in Iraq and other liberal positions put him squarely against Lieberman’s more conservative positions. Connecticut is a strongly Democratic state and no major Republican candidate has stepped up to take down Lieberman, so the greatest fight in the state will be for the Democratic nomination. Lieberman will win with a significant amount of votes in the party primary in 2006, but Lamont will take liberal voters and independents away from Lieberman and give him less of a mandate within the state.
2006 Senate Projection- Lieberman will defeat Lamont 60-40% in the primary, and Lieberman will win 72% plus of the general vote.
Delaware- Thomas Carper (Democrat)- Delaware’s small state status and its liberal leanings give Carper as much of a lock on the Senate seat in 2006 as any candidate. The Republican candidate, veteran Mike Protack, stands no chance at defeating Carper because the incumbent has been a steady leader with no controversy to speak of and a solid hold on the liberal and independent constituency in the state.
2006 Senate Projection- Carper defeats Protack 65-35%
Massachusetts- Ted Kennedy (Democrat)- Ted Kennedy, in the Senate since 1962, will not face any sizable opposition from Republican candidate Kevin Scott and will pad his already impressive resume with yet another term in the Senate in 2006. In fact, Democrats should not put much energy at all in Kennedy’s candidacy and rather in the candidacy of the Democratic nominee for governor in a liberal state that has favored Republican executives since 1990.
2006 Senate Projection- Kennedy defeats Scott 78-22%.
Maryland- Open Seat- In a tightly contested race to replace long time Senator Paul Sarbanes, the likely candidates are Democrat Representative Ben Cardin and Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. The 2006 Senate race in Maryland will focus on who is the appropriate heir to Sarbanes’ political dominance and it will be a tight race. However, it appears that Democrat Cardin will be able to defeat Michael Steele in the general election because of his experience in Congress.
2006 Senate Projection- Cardin defeats Steele 53-47%
Maine- Olympia Snowe (Republican)- Snowe may hail from the liberal Northeast but her ability to appeal to liberals and independents with moderate Republican policies makes her almost invincible in Maine. State politician Eric Mehnert will try and put a Democratic face on the Senate seat, but Snowe is one of the strongest candidates in the nation for reelection.
2006 Senate Projection- Snowe will defeat Mehnert 65-35%.
New Jersey- Bob Menendez (Democrat)- Menendez, appointed to the Senate a year ago, has some experience now in congressional politics going into the 2006 Senate election and has a strong Democratic constituency behind him. His opponent, state senator Tom Kean Jr., is a strong Republican opponent who is moderate enough to win in a state like New Jersey that is traditionally Democratic. However, Menendez is a polished state politician and a strong Senate candidate in his own right and he will maintain his seat though Kean Jr. will give the Republicans some hope for organization in 2008.
2006 Senate Projection- Menendez defeats Kean Jr. 52-48%.
New York- Hillary Clinton (Democrat)- The Republican Party of New York has failed in its efforts to find an adequate candidate to face off against the nationally popular Senator Clinton. The newest front runner, former Defense Department deputy KT McFarland, may have done better had the party not already gone through five or six candidates over the last year. While Clinton has built a sizable war chest for this and future campaigns, Republican candidates have raised but a fraction of donations and they have not found a name candidate to run against the Democrats’ strongest candidate in 2008. Governor George Pataki has also done no favors for the Republican Party in the state by failing to recruit candidates for two successive Senate elections (Charles Schumer crushed his opponent in 2004) and Democrat Eliot Spitzer may sweep into Albany as the new governor.
2006 Senate Projection- Clinton will defeat McFarland 65-35%.
Ohio- Mike DeWine (Republican)- Ohio was 2004’s greatest battleground and in 2006 it will remain in a position of great national interest. With several hotly contested House seats and a tight Senate race, Ohio will see a flood of national interest and dollars from both parties. Incumbent Mike DeWine is in trouble within a fickle Ohioan constituency that will feel the anti-Republican sentiment strongly in November. DeWine also faces a formidable opponent, Congressman Sherrod Brown, who should be able to dispatch the Republican incumbent with a slim margin of victory.
2006 Senate Projection- Brown will defeat DeWine 51-49%.
Pennsylvania- Rick Santorum (Republican)- Santorum won his Senate seat originally by coming back from double digit deficits in the polls to win in a mixed Democrat-Republican state. However, his conservative politics upset moderates and independents in the bigger cities of Pennsylvania and Santorum faces popular politician Bob Casey Jr. (son of a former governor of Pennsylvania), who has a fundraising advantage and better poll numbers. However much Santorum likes to wear the underdog mantle, Casey and the national Democratic Party will be able to pin Santorum’s attachment to an unpopular president to his ability to lead in the Senate.
2006 Senate Projection- Casey defeats Santorum 53-47%.
Rhode Island- Lincoln Chafee (Republican)- Chafee is the most vulnerable Senator in the 2006 Senate campaign, given his liberal Republican background and a strong Democratic opponent in the fall. Chafee only has one Senate campaign under his built and has rankled national Republicans with his support for gay marriage and Democrats for the fact that he is a Republican stealing their ideological strengths. Former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse will win the Democratic nomination and will be able to out-liberal Chafee in liberal Rhode Island, helping swing the Senate toward the Democratic Party.
2006 Senate Projection- Whitehouse defeats Chafee 55-45%.
Vermont- Open Seat- In a state that runs on liberal and independent fuel, Bernie Sanders is the best fit for the Senate seat departed by independent Senator Jim Jeffords. Jeffords made huge news by throwing the Senate to the Democrats in 2001 by changing party affiliations from Republican to Independent. Sanders is one of the few independents in the United States House in American history, is wildly popular in a state of maverick political minds, and faces a conservative CEO, Richard Torrant, in the general election. Torrant may be able to fund his own campaign with his personal money, but Sanders is a lock for the open Senate seat and will bring an Independent/Democratic coalition of voters together to try and reform the Senate’s stodgy culture.
2006 Senate Projection- Sanders defeats Torrant 60-40%.
