The 2006 Senate Elections in the American Northwest

The 2006 Senate elections in the Northwest will be more competitive than in past election cycles, given the tenuous mandate given to senators like Maria Cantwell of Washington and the growth of opposition in such heavily Republican states as Montana and North Dakota. Voters will be looking to put typically bland Northwestern states like Montana and Wyoming on the map with strong leaders despite of, not because of, party leadership.

Montana- Incumbent Conrad Burns (Republican)- Burns is on the ropes politically, having faced a difficult challenge in 2000 and reeling a bit from his reported connections to lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The problem won’t be from a strong Democratic opponent but rather from within his own party. State Senate minority leader Bob Keenan is playing the good leadership/morals card in his run against Burns and will be successful. With a national Republican structure trying to separate itself from scandal, Keenan appears the best option for state Republicans. The 2006 gubernatorial nomination for the Democrats will go to State Senate President Jon Tester, setting up a test for how well the Democrats are doing in the state of Montana. Despite having a Democratic legislature and governor, Tester will have to contend with Republican money flooding into the state and will lose in a close election.

2006 Senate projection Keenan defeats Tester 52-48% but the Democrats will be happy to set up the state for a moderate presidential nominee in 2008.

North Dakota- Incumbent Kent Conrad (Democrat)- Conrad, along with Senate colleague Bryon Dorgan, make an unlikely duo in strongly Republican North Dakota: a pair of Democratic Senators who look like they will be in office for awhile. Dorgan defeated Republican Mike Liffrig in 2004, giving him another six years, while Conrad appears able to dispatch with Liffrig in 2006. Governor John Hoeven declined to run for this seat, turning it from a toss up into a strongly Democratic seat. While North Dakotans like the sound of conservative government, they have little reason to get rid of Kent Conrad, who has been a good representative for the state of North Dakota. Unless a strong Republican candidate stands up and takes on Conrad, the Democrats will win another unlikely election in North Dakota.

2006 Senate Projection- Conrad defeats Liffrig 55-45%.

Washington- Maria Cantwell (Democrat)-Cantwell won her Senate seat in 2000 by a few thousand votes and is still a tenuous favorite in Washington, where the big city/rural divide is very real. Cantwell is lucky not to be facing off against former gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, who narrowly lost his election against Christine Gregoire in 2004, because Rossi would probably put the Republicans over the edge in the state. Cantwell will most likely face off against business executive Mike McGavick, who may be moderate enough ideologically to defeat Cantwell. But the Democratic Party appears to have the edge in 2006, due to the lack of popularity of Republicans nationwide and the fact that Cantwell has been an able leader in her first Senate term.

2006 Senate Projection- Cantwell defeats McGavick 51-49% or even closer in the vote county, casting doubts as to how strong a presence Cantwell is in Washington state.

Wyoming- Craig Thomas (Republican)- Likely Democratic candidate Dale Groutage, a college professor and former defense contractor, faces a huge uphill battle (think K2) in trying to defeat Thomas in Wyoming. While other Western states, like North Dakota and Montana, are playing coy with the Republican Party, Wyoming is staunchly conservative and without a more dominant candidate, the Democrats stand no chance in the 2006 Senate election. Thomas, scandal free and an able senator, will cruise easily to another term in office.

2006 Senate projection-Thomas defeats Groutage 65-35%.