The 2006 Senate Elections in the American Southeast

The Southeast, including the Deep South and the black sheep of the Southern family, Florida, has been fairly steady along party lines throughout American history. As the party of the South and of revolution, the Democrats held strong in the South through the 1960s. The civil rights movement and the subsequent split in the Democratic Party left Republicans a gap to enter Southern politics and today, with the exception of conservative Democrats, the Republican Party has a strong lock on the pro-life, Christian South. The 2006 Senate elections are perhaps no exception, with the possible exception of Florida’s Bill Nelson, who is not a conservative Democrat. The Southeast, however, looks to remain solidly in the hands of the Republican Party.

Florida- Incumbent Bill Nelson (Democrat)- Nelson appeared to be in trouble early in 2006, with a well funded Representative Katherine Harris (of 2000 election notoriety) headlining the Republican effort to win the Senate seat. However, prominent Republicans in the state and nation have attempted to get Harris to back down while they scramble to find another candidate. This late in the game, however, it seems like pulling the plug on Harris is unlikely. Nelson has a major fundraising advantage over Harris at this point and his relative popularity in the state will prevent an upset by the scandal-ridden Harris in the 2006 Senate election. Harris’ prominence will only serve to bring up the allegations of indiscretions while Florida Secretary of State in 2000 and will give Nelson a greater margin of victory.

2006 Senate Projection- Bill Nelson defeats Katherine Harris 58-42%.

Mississippi- Incumbent Trent Lott (Republican)- Despite all that Trent Lott has done wrong over the past six years, he is still well liked within his home state. His involvement in the Hurricane Katrina cleanup and his ability to keep clean following some unsavory statements leading to his removal as Senate Majority Leader will help him cruise easily to victory in November. The Democratic candidate at this point, State Representative Erik Fleming, stands no chance of defeating Lott even with the wave of anti-Republican sentiment pouring throughout the United States.

2006 Senate Projection- Trent Lott defeats Erik Fleming 72-28%.

Tennessee- Open Seat- Bill Frist’s promise to fulfill his own two term limit means that the battleground state of Tennessee is now up for grabs. Popular Democratic Representative Harold Ford Jr., at age 35, appears to have a lock on the Democratic nomination in the 2006 Senate race and could benefit from a hotly contested Republican nomination. Ford is a bright star in the Democratic lineup and is looking to make the move to the Senate to create a greater national profile. The most likely Republican candidate in the 2006 Senate race is Bob Corker, a moderate Republican and mayor of Chattanooga. A group of conservative candidates will battle it out, but state Republicans are looking to keep this Senate seat in the Republican column. Corker’s moderate politics will allow him to win much of the Republican vote and steal some of the vote from Ford, possibly giving him the victory. If this election were for governor and not for the Senate, the fact that Ford is an African American Democrat may have some bearing among the conservative crowd. However, Ford’s experience in the House and his favorable personality will give the Democrats another Senate seat in their effort to take back Congress

2006 Senate projection- Harold Ford Jr. defeats Bob Corker 53-47%.

Virginia- Incumbent George Allen (Republican)- George Allen stands a good chance of being swept out of office in the 2006 Senate election, due to his split time between campaigning for the Senate seat and the 2008 presidential nominee. While this may not seem to be such a big deal, as many politicians due this every election cycle, he has been particularly ineffectual in his Senate campaign in Virginia. With the possibility of a special election in 2008 creating a sense of annoyance among Virginians, they may consider voting Democratic despite Allen’s split campaign. The Democrats have a strong but unpolished candidate in Harris Miller, a telecommunications giant in Virginia and a former county chair in Fairfax County and former Secretary of Navy James Webb. Despite Miller’s lack of campaign experience as a candidate, his ability to self fund, his promise as a progressive Senator, and Allen’s inability to focus on one campaign at a time (at least publicly) look to create a perfect storm for the Democrats in the 2006 Senate election.
2006 Senate Projection- Harris Miller will defeat George Allen 52-48%, a major upset for one of the Republican Party’s shining stars in 2008.

West Virginia- Incumbent Robert Byrd (Democrat)- Robert Byrd, at the age of 87, has decided to seek an astonishing ninth term in the United States Senate in 2006. At this point, his opposition seems to be doing more to convince West Virginia that a man approaching 90 is the best option than to prove that any of them would do well by the people of West Virginia. Byrd has been renowned for his ability to bring home federal dollars and has remained out of controversy for much of his tenure. The two leading Republican candidates are former Republican party chair (and Senate candidate in 1984) John Raese and 2004 Senate candidate Rick Snuffe. The crowded Republican field is trying to create a collective image as respectful of Byrd’s service and the rightful heirs to his pork barrel crown. Byrd, however, is the only candidate who can beat Byrd and if he is healthy heading into November he will destroy his opponent at the ballot box.

2006 Senate projection: Robert Byrd defeats John Raese 65-35% at least, though this may be a conservative projection.