The 2006 Senate Elections in the American Southwest
Arizona- Incumbent Jon Kyl (Republican)- While Arizona has strong Republican representation with John Kyl and John McCain in the Senate, the less popular Senator Kyl may have a strong challenge from state Democratic party chair Jim Pederson in the 2006 Senate election. Pederson’s leadership of the Democrats and an increasingly competitive political scene nationwide does not give Kyl the strength that an incumbent may normally get. However, it is unlikely that anti-Republicanism in the United States will cause such an upheaval that Kyl will be ousted from the Senate. Pederson will put up a big fight and Arizona will be more in play in the 2008 presidential election than it has in a long time.
2006 Senate Projection- Kyl defeats Pederson 55-45%.
California- Incumbent Dianne Feinstein (Democrat)-Feinstein stands no chance of losing this race unless she gets involved in some sort of last second scandal before the 2006 Senate election. Republican candidate Dick Mountjoy, a state politician, is more in a position to fill the ballot than he is to challenge the popular Feinstein. A popular woman senator with several terms under her belt mixed with a Californian tradition of progressivism equals easy victory for Dianne Feinstein.
2006 Senate Projection- Feinstein defeats Mountjoy 75-25%.
Hawaii- Incumbent Daniel Akaka (Democrat)- Akaka, an 82 year old Hawaii political institution, has no Republican opposition for the 2006 Senate election. In fact, the only challenger on the slate at this point is another Democrat, Congressman Ed Case. While the Democrats have a firm hold on this state, few Democrats want to create any tumult with a safe seat. Akaka has brought home the bacon in his many years as a representative for Hawaii and Case’s attempt to bring a more liberal approach to this Senate seat in 2006 will not be successful.
2006 Senate Projection- Akaka defeats Case 70-30% in the primary, and Akaka defeats his Republican opponent with at least 80% of the vote.
New Mexico- Incumbent Jeff Bingaman (Democrat)- Jeff Bingaman is lucky that New Mexico, a state that is surprisingly moderate considering its conservative neighboring states, has such a popular Democratic governor and an important national profile as a battleground state in 2004 and 2008. Bingaman is not facing a strong Republican opposition in the 2006 Senate race, despite his less than stellar poll numbers. Republican state senator Joe Carraro is going to run on a moderate platform in an effort to steal votes from the centrist New Mexican Democrats but will be unsuccessful. Bingaman has been scandal free and a solid presence in the Senate.
2006 Senate Projection- Bingaman defeats Joe Carraro 60-40%.
Texas- Incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchinson (Republican)- Hutchinson could have challenged Governor Rick Perry for the executive position in Texas and probably won, given her relatively high popularity compared to the incumbent governor. However, her decision to remain in the Senate is good for Republicans, who need all the safe seats they can handle in the 2006 Senate election, and good for Perry, whose greatest challenger would have been Hutchinson. Houston attorney Barbara Radnofsky will play the role of massive underdog as the Democratic candidate, as a slew of Republican scandals (including Houston’s Tom DeLay) won’t do much for a lax Democratic structure in the state.
2006 Senate Projection- Hutchinson defeats Radnofsky 70-30%.
Utah- Incumbent Orrin Hatch (Republican)- Like fellow Republican Trent Lott, Orrin Hatch stands no chance of losing in deeply conservative Utah in the 2006 Senate campaign. His only Democratic opponent at this point, which makes him the presumptive nominee, is businessman Pete Ashdown and his lack of experience in politics makes him even more of a straw man against the wildly popular Hatch.
2006 Senate campaign- Hatch defeats Ashdown 78-22%.
