Thoroughbred Handicapping: Develop Your Own Formula for Betting on Horses
Pure speed handicappers look at the final time. Pace handicappers check the fractions.
Say Horse A last time out closed to win, running six furlongs in 1:12. That would be the speed handicapper’s selection.
Say Horse B last time out in a different race ran the opening quarter-mile a second faster than the speed handicapper’s pick and the next quarter-mile two ticks quicker before fading to fifth, running six furlongs in 1:12 1/5. The pace handicapper would lick his chops, especially if the horse is lone speed in the next race.
I often employ both tools, especially in sprints. But remember handicapping isn’t all speed and pace figures, nor other statistics. The key to success is coming up with the right formula that leads to cashing tickets.
For instance, looks can count, too. While not all horseplayers can pick a winner by eyeballing a field, sometimes a thoroughbred looks so good in the paddock that you decide the animal is worth a bet.
An old friend had an uncanny knack for selecting winners at South Florida tracks just by looking at horses. However, he declined to share his secret of success.
You don’t have to be an excellent judge of horseflesh to spot positive signs of a potential winner. I like a horse that appears perky or bouncy and exhibits aggressive but controllable behavior while warming up. Also a good sign: a fluid transition from a walking gait to a gallop and a well-groomed shiny coat.
Negative signs include excessive kidney sweat between the flanks and, on cool afternoons or evenings, heavy sweating during saddling in the paddock or parading to the post. Another negative: a fractious horse with uncontrollable behavior and a dull coat.
But sometimes a horse just stands out. Several years ago at Gulfstream Park, I nudged a close friend and said: “Wow – look at that. He certainly doesn’t look like a first-time starter.”
“You’re right,” Brad said.
I hadn’t seen such a dazzling reddish-brown coat in a long time, either at Gulfstream or other tracks. The thoroughbred also was prancing on his toes, head tucked toward the chest, neck arched, ears pointed and tail slightly raised.
Trippi didn’t disappoint. Even though the 3-year-old broke in the air, he made up a ton of ground and won by more than four lengths in a hand ride going five furlongs.
Before retiring early with foot problems, Trippi captured half of his 14 races, mostly sprints, and earned more than $665,000. Now his siblings are doing well.
Too much information, however, can prove confusing. I limit mine to a half-dozen or so factors that include horses coming off a bad trip that performed gamely, winning jockey-trainer combos, changes in medication or equipment and racing patterns.
For instance, there’s a piece of equipment that helps some thoroughbreds to improve, but you won’t find it listed in the program or past performances like Lasix, blinkers and front wraps.
The shadow roll is a large sheepskin band that fits over the nose to keep a horse’s eyes focused forward and away from distractions underfoot. It goes on a horse that has been shying away from sudden changes in light on the track. It keeps the head low and prevents the horse from climbing, allowing the animal to run level.
Wearing a shadow roll may also signal a change in bits. That’s the part of the bridle inserted into the horse’s mouth.
Trouble breathing might require changing the ring bit to a direct bit, which helps the thoroughbred run level and corrects the problem.
It’s a good idea to note on your program if your selection was wearing a shadow roll when running a particularly bad race. It could make a difference next time out, especially if blinkers also come on.
Blinkers allow the wearer to better focus. The cloth hood with cup-like eye openings limits vision, preventing horses from swerving from objects or other rivals.
Using blinkers is determined by running style. Adding them will intensify a horse’s speed, defusing distractions. Blinkers come off primarily to help a horse relax.
Lasix is given to a horse that suffers pulmonary bleeding due to a ruptured blood vessel during a race or workout. It acts as a diuretic, reducing pressure on the capillaries. First-time Lasix is especially helpful to 2-year-olds that faded abruptly while on the lead.
Front cotton bandages may warn that a horse has tendon or ligament problems. But trainers keep us guessing because wraps also protect the animal from hitting itself. One negative: first-time wraps can slow down runners and throw them off stride.
There’s another equipment change that also doesn’t appear in print, but can be viewed at some tracks on closed circuit TV – horseshoes.
The type of shoes depends on the situation. Plain shoes sometimes are replaced with block heels to lift weakened back ends to let horses grab the track better.
In addition, block heels go on horses that tend to ground their heels, causing a burn. They also help heels from running down. Mud caulks, naturally, are used when tracks come up muddy or sloppy.
However, trainers are limited to what shoes can be worn on the grass at some tracks. For example, Florida doesn’t allow shoes with caulks, raised toes, mud nails and turn down heels on turf courses.
Block heels sometimes go on hind hooves to allow horses to get a better hold of the grass, especially when it’s less than firm.
One factor in handicapping that divides horseplayers and professional handicappers is the Bounce Theory.
Basically, a horse than bounces suffers a negative reaction to his previous outing. Many handicappers, like myself, believe that usually happens after a runner exerts a strenuous effort. Others have their doubts.
Say a horse’s speed figures have languished in the lower 70s until winning a route on the grass, posting an 88. In the next start, the thoroughbred is most likely to bounce if the runner is:
*Racing on the dirt. Grass is an easier surface where horses can string together more consistent trips.
*A pacesetter. Pressured front-runners are susceptible to fading.
*Entered in a sprint. Pace is faster in shorter distances, taking its toll on horses. Routes have more even pace figures.
*Coming off the comeback race within three weeks or less. According to Team Valor racing co-partner Jeff Siegel, “A trainer’s patch-up job after a very fast, very hard race becomes undone.”
*A claimer. Cheaper animals tend to regress more than stakes horses, who get better handling and more rest.
*A filly. Females have a tendency to bounce more often than males.
Horses usually regress off a big move forward that might be triggered by first-time Lasix, a new trainer or jockey, switching to a new surface, changes in equipment, etc.
Reasons for the big move forward likely will have an impact on the possible bounce. Past performances can be your guide, but consider each case individually.
That’s what turf writer Joe Cardello believes: “Perhaps we shouldn’t examine the problem in terms of categories, classes or genders. Perhaps it’s more a function of each horse’s individual physical makeup. Some can stand up to big efforts.”
Others can’t. Some thoroughbreds repeat big efforts if they have adequate time between races while others don’t need much time.
Not all believe in the bounce theory, including Steven Crist, publisher of the Daily Racing Form: “True bouncing probably does occur in relatively rare instances where a big-figure race was genuinely a taxing one, and is more likely to occur when a horse returns on short rest or has been racing frequently and is starting to tail off.
“Next to a winner, there’s nothing that horsemen and horseplayers like better than an it’s-not-my-fault excuse for a loser, and the bounce is joining the cuppy track and the boneheaded ride as a favorite.
“Just like those old saws, this one is getting dull through overuse. Just because a horse happened to run a career-best race doesn’t automatically mean the performance can’t be repeated.”
That’s especially true of young horses when they’re developing en route to becoming stakes contenders. If the price is right, a bet is worth the gamble.
Managing your money is perhaps the most important part of the wagering game, especially when you’re on a losing streak. Some advice:
*Quit wagering for a spell and take notes. Watch for horses that finish well despite a troubled trip and tab them for later.
*Alter your handicapping system. Maybe you’ve been ignoring the track bias. Maybe you’ve been playing too many favorites and they’re not hitting the board. Maybe you’re dropping some contenders and they’re winning.
*Don’t talk yourself out of playing selections you really love. There are exceptions like when the horse looks washed out or is fractious.
*Avoid playing more races than you originally handicapped. I don’t like giving back winnings because of snap handicapping picks.
There are circumstances when you probably should alter your choices. They include:
*When the rains come and you’ve handicapped for a fast track.
*When races are taken off the turf, several selections are scratched and a jockey or two is replaced.
So get to work on your winning formula, which can vary depending on race conditions. And may Lady Luck cooperate.
