Wild World of Baseball’s National League
Cincinnati Reds – The Wild Card leaders in the clubhouse heading into mid-August, but can they hang on? Whether they do or don’t will be no fault of first year general manager Wayne Krivsky. It was Krivsky who brokered arguably the best trade of the offseason by shipping Willy Mo Pena to Boston for starter Bronson Arroyo, who has quickly emerged as one of the NL’s top pitchers. He’s attempted to reinforce a porous bullpen by trading everyday players Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to Washington for Gary Majewski and Billy Bray. He’s made a pair of deals with Philadelphia to net Rheal Cormier and Ray Franklin and brought in closer Eddie Guardado from Seattle. But will it be enough? The offense is respectable, but, despite leading the league in home runs, doesn’t strike fear into an opponent. After Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, the offensive star power is severely lacking. The starting pitching after Arroyo still needs work and pitching into the bandbox known as Great American Ballpark will not help. The Reds have been a surprise team in 2006, but expect them to level off in the next six weeks and fall short of the playoffs.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 4th
Arizona Diamondbacks – A topsy-turvy season in the desert has found the Diamondbacks right in the midst of the wild card hunt. A solid start to 2006 was marred by the Jason Grimsley scandal. The team has managed to recover and stay above .500 in a division that will be up for grabs until the final week of the season. Perhaps the reason for the modest success so far has been pitching of NL Cy Young candidate Brandon Webb. His devastating sinkerball has him near the top of the league in wins and ERA. Keeping Webb healthy will be a necessity for the D’Backs to have any chance at the postseason. Their offensive is a nice mix of veteran players that can still contribute (Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green, and Craig Counsell) and young players with loads of potential (Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, and Carlos Quentin). While I expect Arizona to fall short of both the divisional and wild card playoffs berths, their future is just as bright as the hot desert sun.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 3rd
Los Angeles Dodgers – After a terrible stretch prior to the All-Star Break, the Dodgers have catapulted back into contention with a lengthy early August winning streak. The team did not stand pat at the trading deadline, acquiring infielders Julio Lugo and Wilson Betemit and future Hall of Fame starter Greg Maddux. The returns of Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra should spark the offense and feel like significant midseason acquisitions. The Dodgers have the pitching to contend, led by All-Star starter Brad Penny. Behind him, Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux both possess a wealth of big game experience. The bullpen is not the same without Eric Gange, but it’s still competent. If the influx of new faces can mesh with the guys that have carried the team all year, postseason baseball, whether it’s by winning the NL West or Wild Card, should return to Los Angeles in ’06.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 1st
Philadelphia Phillies – A season with so many expectations has again gone sour in Philadelphia. A terrible first half concluded with the trade of All-Star rightfielder Bobby Abreu and starter Cory Lidle to the Yankees. Even without Abreu, the Phillies rode Chase Utley’s 35-game hitting streak to victories in nine of eleven games before literally throwing away two key games at Shea Stadium and dampening any chances of a late season run. While not out of the Wild Card picture, the bad karma in Philadelphia, along with the lack of starting pitching, will keep the Phillies on the outside looking in. The team does have hope with young studs Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the right side of the infield for potentially the next decade, but some wholesale changes need to be made to the organization this offseason.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 6th
Houston Astros – It’s all gone wrong for the Astros in ’06. The grand plan of allowing Roger Clemens to relax for the first two months of the season before signing him to a hefty pro-rated contract in mid-June has blown up in their face. Before Clemens, the starting pitching was unable to carry the inept Astros offense. The team could not land an impact offensive player at the trading deadline and may have alienated star pitcher Roy Oswalt by dangling him in trade talks. Andy Pettitte has failed to pitch up to his career numbers while closer Brad Lidge seemingly has not recovered from the Albert Pujols home run last postseason. It would be foolish to count out any team with Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt in the starting rotation, but the team’s inability to score runs will ultimately be their undoing this season.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 5th
Atlanta Braves – The amazing streak of fourteen consecutive NL East division titles will finally come to an end this season. For the first time in a long time, the Braves’ pitching has let them down. John Smoltz and Tim Hudson have not produced the ace-like results that the team expected. Injuries have plagued the remainder of the rotation. The bullpen has been an outright disaster and trades for Bob Wickman and Danys Baez will prove to be too little, too late. The offense has been spotty, despite another big year from centerfielder Andruw Jones. History has shown that it’s never wise to count out the Braves, but they will also be on the outside looking in this October.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 11th
San Francisco Giants – There’s never a dull moment in San Francisco, especially with the No. 25 still on the roster. Despite Barry Bonds showing his mortality this season, the Giants have hung around. But age and injuries will be this team’s undoing as it fails to reach the playoffs. Jason Schmidt has been strong at the top of the rotation, but ineffectiveness has plagued young starters Noah Lowry and Matt Cain. Veteran Matt Morris has not lived up to his three-year, twenty-seven million dollar contract. 2006 will likely mark the end of the Bonds era in San Francisco and hopefully open the door to a youth movement by the bay.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 10th
Colorado Rockies – No team has flown under the radar this season more than the Rockies. The average fan would need a program to recognize Colorado’s everyday position players, outside of first basemen Todd Helton. Yet the Rockies are right in the middle of the division and Wild Card races. Pitching, usually a death knell in Colorado, has been surprisingly respectable considering the elements. The team may be short of star power, but it’s big on hard work and intangibles, two key ingredients in any successful postseason team. The Rockies will fall short as the pitching just won’t hold up over the next two months, but 2006 will be a step in the right direction for the organization.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 7th
Florida Marlins – Many people’s pick to win the fewest number of games in the National League at the start of the season, the Florida Marlins have been quite the story. Dismantled in the offseason to almost resemble a Triple-A team, the Marlins, with a payroll far less than that of Alex Rodriguez’s annual salary, have shown some great signs under rookie manager Joe Girardi. The only recognizable names at the start of the season – Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis – have done their part. The rest of the load has been up to dozens of young players and some, particularly Hanley Ramirez, All-Star Dan Uggla, and Josh Willingham, have risen to the occasion. Some potential gems have also been discovered in the pitching staff in the form of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. The Marlins won’t make the playoffs in 2006, but a nucleus is being constructed for another World Series run in just a few years.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 8th
Milwaukee Brewers – A lot of optimism in Milwaukee faded over the course of the season as the Brewers could not build of the relative success of 2005. The Carlos Lee trade essentially became the white flag for a team that spiraled without ace pitcher Ben Sheets. The development of Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks on the right side of the infield should keep the Brewers competitive for years to come if the starting pitching can stay healthy. Derrick Turnbow’s second half meltdown has been alarming, but Francisco Cordero could anchor a solid bullpen. The Brewers will likely struggle to finish at .500, but the pieces of the puzzle are there for long-term success.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 9th
San Diego Padres – Currently leading the NL West, the Padres technically are not in the Wild Card picture at the time of this writing, but a two-game losing streak can quickly put them in the race. The Padres have weathered a shockingly poor season from ace Jake Peavy. For the team to be any threat in the postseason, Peavy will need to bounce back to somewhat of a replica of his 2005 campaign. The offense has been good, with first basement Adrian Gonzalez leading the team in all three Triple Crown categories. Catcher Mike Piazza has had a surprisingly strong season at the plate to spark the team as of late. The bullpen is solid with setup man Scott Linebrink and Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman. The Padres should have enough to make it to the playoffs, whether it’s via the division or the Wild Card. The Dodgers should take the other spot.
Rank among Wild Card teams: 2nd
National League Playoff First Round Matchups:
NL East Champion New York Mets vs. Wild Card Winner San Diego Padres
NL Central Champion St. Louis Cardinals vs. NL West Champion Los Angeles
